Major Hurricane Ian.

[FetchCB]

America's Sea Level Has Risen 6.5 Inches

SEALEVELRISE.ORG

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Sea level rise is increasing. Flooding has increased by an average of 233% in the last 20 years. Nationally, sea levels have risen 6.5 inches since 1950. Higher seas mean more...

The sea has risen 8 inches since 1950 in Florida. 

Not withstanding the threat from storm surge the sea rise means there is less ability in Florida to absorb rainfall as the aquifers are high and underground storm drains are already flooded 

[ANYWEATHER]

7 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

 

America's Sea Level Has Risen 6.5 Inches

SEALEVELRISE.ORG

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Sea level rise is increasing. Flooding has increased by an average of 233% in the last 20 years. Nationally, sea levels have risen 6.5 inches since 1950. Higher seas mean more...

The sea has risen 8 inches since 1950 in Florida. 

Not withstanding the threat from storm surge the sea rise means there is less ability in Florida to absorb rainfall as the aquifers are high and underground storm drains are already flooded 

Really...Florida is literally sinking ,geologically ...

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Predicted sea level rise from years ago never happened,  and never will. It's a little bit like forecasting hurricanes where and when they will form, but model simulations will never it get it right, ,its the weather after all , and Mother Nature's great secret,  Will never be found...

Well let's just keep the secrets a secret then...And stick to the actual facts in here please. And that includes grammatical understanding.

[Thunder Snow]

It's seems that Ian is really struggling to get going, he's weakened slightly since the last update.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Thunder Snow

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

It's seems that Ian is really struggling to get going, he's weakened slightly since the last update.
 

Expected to be Cat 4 as it moves past Cuba put to weaken considerably as it then experiences large wind shear.

 

[matty40s]

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

As always at night, there’s usually an uptick in intensity, as well as entering those bath waters! 

[The Tall Weatherman]

The NHC is showing a further east track than before therefore keeping in the warmer seas longer and avoiding that cold air and shear coming down from the south. So it now possibly looks like a major landfall on north Florida with the chance of huge storm surge.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

The NHC is showing a further east track than before therefore keeping in the warmer seas longer and avoiding that cold air and shear coming down from the south. So it now possibly looks like a major landfall on north Florida with the chance of huge storm surge.

That's a big change from yesterday and not a good one for Florida.

They did sat a more Easterly track would mean less shear.

[Lauren]

That looks pretty devastating for Havana. A lot of buildings over there are barely standing and Cuba in general is not well equipped for hurricanes. We visited a year after Irma and in many parts it was like it hit yesterday as all the repairs had gone to the tourist areas. It's such a wonderful country but they can't cope with strong hurricanes at all.

[summer blizzard]

983mb, 75mph. Now a hurricane.

[Thunder Snow]

5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

983mb, 75mph. Now a hurricane.

Its took him long enough

[matty40s]

urricane Ian Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Satellite imagery shows that Ian has quickly become better organized overnight. Banding has increased in all quadrants of the storm, and the eye has become much better defined in radar data from Grand Cayman. The improving eye structure was also reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm overnight. During a single pass through the northeastern portion of the storm the plane measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 71 kt and SFMR winds of 57 kt. Given the continued increase in organization and drop in central pressure on the latest center fix, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Ian the fourth hurricane of the 2022 hurricane season. The latest center drop from the aircraft supported a minimum pressure of 983 mb. In addition to the development of an inner core, the upper-level outflow over the storm has expanded overnight. Ian will be traversing the warm waters (30 degrees C) of the northwestern Caribbean and remain within very low shear conditions today. These very conducive environmental factors along with the improved structure of the storm are likely to result in rapid intensification today, and Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba tonight.

[Gray-Wolf]

Ian will keep his feet in the water as he lashes the whole of the Western side of Florida prior to a predicted landfall in the Panhandle

I would not expect to much of a drop off in intensity if he does keep his core over the gulf?

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Ian will keep his feet in the water as he lashes the whole of the Western side of Florida prior to a predicted landfall in the Panhandle

I would not expect to much of a drop off in intensity if he does keep his core over the gulf?

There is still uncertainty about Ian's track. The 0z GFS and ECM keep him to the west coast of Florida while the UKMO and ICON have him crossing the Florida peninsula and emerging in the east coast. They all agree though that he will be slow moving so flooding is likely to be extensive.

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[karyo]

The 12z ECM is similar to the GFS, just slightly further west. The UKMO is on its own with a much more easterly track.

[matty40s]

 

[karyo]

Ian is continuing to strengthen as he is nearing the Isle of Youth just south of west Cuba!

Maximum sustained winds: 100mph

Minimum central pressure: 972mb

[Thunder Snow]

Ian is now a cat 2 hurricane and continues to rapidly strengthen.

[Man With Beard]

ECM 00Z slams Ian into Florida coast south of Tampa 

GFS has a slower approach, eventually headed for Tampa but less intense on arrival 

Some models stall Ian out to sea completely

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[The Tall Weatherman]