Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[damianslaw]

As others mention, 4 ECM runs now going with major strengthening block to the NE. I tend to think ECM is best with siberian/scandi highs and GFS with greenland highs. The GFS has been all over the place long term output recent days, ECM much more steadfast but perhaps expected given it only goes out to 240 hrs.

Lots of long term forecasts have been persistant with the idea of strong heights having a say in Dec rather than low pressure, just differences in where they may set up. 

The El Nino esque atmosphere is making a mockery of the expected la nina analogues for late autumn / early winter.. almost behaving in an el nino east based state.. amplified with trough to the west and ridge to the east. Seasonal wavelengths as we enter Dec strengthen the base state, if heights can settle to the NE very good chance they can surge west and north west, jet sinks south... ties in with met office thoughts. The next week could be a very interesting one, we are in a very different position to where we have been at this point in the year than many recent years as Tamara mentioned, very interesting!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Chance of it pushing into Greenland be it fi etc

A variation on a theme from the para. High pushing up over us and trying to link with the arctic high. Really interesting model output at the moment . 

[E17boy]

However Reykjavik in Iceland saying  a balmy 9 degrees later this week ??

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs para continuing to align itself with the ecm. Nice. 

The GFS go to first model I think.

5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The interesting thing about the ECM this morning is even if we didn't catch some cold uppers under that 1075mb block, such is the extent of it's influence, we'd be building a large area of surface cold anyway, provided the Atlantic flow can be held off! 

Probably have to go under, nowhere for it to go.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

My goodness am I in a dream, a fantastic upbeat vibe emerging in the netweather model thread LOVE IT 

With very good reason too 

 

 

 

 

a couple of the more synoptically stunning overnight outputs 

 

06z gfs P primed for another noteable run ... 

Often something I look for with that style of setup, if you get that lower pressure underneath the building high it can't go south so has to go either direction to Greenland (most likely on that particular run) or Scandinavia 

 

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A variation on a theme from the para. High pushing up over us and trying to link with the arctic high. Really interesting model output at the moment . 

Indeed. The main thing barring details is the Atlantic is blocked off and our old foe the euro high is away on its hols

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Indeed. The main thing barring details is the Atlantic is blocked off and our old foe the euro high is away on its hols

Shades of how Dec 09 played out.. after the very wet atlantic dominated Nov, albeit earlier this year, that was El Nino east based year... 

[Mike Poole]

Cracking GFS // 6z run this morning in FI, but building on a consistent theme of higher heights first locally then migrating northeast or northwest, increasingly showing across the models since I last had good look on Friday.  T354:

The wider setup looks to have some longevity about it to me, if it pans out like models are increasingly hinting at, so hopefully we can get the local UK alignment right at some point in the next few weeks for a really decent cold snap or spell.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Mike Poole

[January Snowstorm]

The gfs (p) ends with an enormous Greenland high!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Even though posting ensemble means of the 500mb and surface pressure charts in FI doesn’t always provide the most accurate representation of where things could head in the future, for the sake of it, the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean at 240 hours backs the mean Low in the Atlantic a touch further West compared to yesterday’s 12Z mean. And… the upper low heights around Southern and Western Greenland are less stronger. Help to add less power to Atlantic Lows.

Yesterday’s 12Z ECMWF mean 

 

Today’s 00Z ECMWF mean

 

While ideally another shift West would be great (bearing in mind these are still just ensemble means and I imagine there will be spread), it’s a little step in the right direction. Personally love to see a drying out at least with the weather and do hope for the block to the East to conquer the battle!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

06z gfs P primed for another noteable run ... 

Often something I look for with that style of setup, if you get that lower pressure underneath the building high it can't go south so has to go either direction to Greenland (most likely on that particular run) or Scandinavia 

 

[sheikhy]

Beauty of scandi block this morning ecm!!gfs not really!!!but that is huuuge on the ecm!!that 168 to 192 hours timeframe is where it all begins!!keep an eye on it on the 12zs!!!by the way not being negative but i dont believe the ecm!!!

[LRD]

Last frame comparison

GFS 6z op

Gfs 6z para

Although even the polar profile shows signs of promise (for cold) on the standard op

Analysing the last frames of a GFS run is folly of course but the trends are obvious at the moment. Might lead to something, might lead to nothing but at least it's something to monitor.

[Methuselah]

Am I the only one on here who's more than a little sceptical about the upcoming spell of cold, snowy weather? I mean, look what happened last Christmas? And that was 'nailed on'!

[sheikhy]

Anyone seen the differences in the arpege at just 4 days out around the uk and scandi area!!00z and 06z below........

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I the only one on here who's more than a little sceptical about the upcoming spell of cold, snowy weather? I mean, look what happened last Christmas? And that was 'nailed on'!

If you follow the ECM det and nothing else you don't get strung along (in general)... and we know what the GFS is like at a certain range.

[minus10]

1075 mb???

Is that not a record?

Even the mean is pretty good..

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I the only one on here who's more than a little sceptical about the upcoming spell of cold, snowy weather? I mean, look what happened last Christmas? And that was 'nailed on'!

Tbh Ed if your not sceptical you need your bumps feeling. Things look like settling down with some rise in pressure destination unknown. I'm not a fan of cold festive weather without snow but I'd take it dry instead of all that rain.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

If you follow the ECM det and nothing else you don't get strung along (in general)... and we know what the GFS is like at a certain range.

Strangely enough, I only usually look at the GFS (I'll wait 10 days for the para to take over) so I'm aware of its longer-term frailties... And, anyway, cherry-picked charts aren't really all that useful IMO?

[Anthony Burden]

Hi just a quick blog GFS v ECM looking a vast difference GFS has low pressure over Scandinavia while ECM has some enormous high pressure both at similar range agreed 10 days or so very susceptible to change but this is becoming a major difference,not sure what is causing this but could be a major factor in our coming winter.Could there be a five star winner or a share ie half way house.

[cold snap]

All it takes is one tiny spoiler low to come in from the states  and enlarge and then the pattern will collapse.

The blocking  looks steadfast however .

Ps. Where is Nick S ?

 

[Anthony Burden]

3 minutes ago, cold snap said:

All it takes is one tiny spoiler low to come in from the states  and enlarge and then the pattern will collapse.

The blocking  looks steadfast however .

Ps. Where is Nick S ?

 

Hi yes Nick S and MattHugo would be good to get their thoughts.

[GSP]

16 minutes ago, cold snap said:

All it takes is one tiny spoiler low to come in from the states  and enlarge and then the pattern will collapse.

The blocking  looks steadfast however .

Ps. Where is Nick S ?

 

Great seeing the posts and optimism, but caution as we have been here too many times before. It really is just potential at the moment so far out, but that shouldn’t stop the excitement, interest and watching how this one pans out, either way.

That’s what it’s all about and looking forward to the next runs, and what they suggest.

[andy989]

42 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I the only one on here who's more than a little sceptical about the upcoming spell of cold, snowy weather? I mean, look what happened last Christmas? And that was 'nailed on'!

There’s an upcoming spell of cold and snowy weather? But yes, personally I’m not getting excited until an actual spell of cold and snowy weather is at least T48 hrs. As nice as it is to have an upbeat forum. At the moment we are only at a stage of needing  to get global drivers in place to maybe make conditions conducive for cold for the UK, certainly not at a stage to say there is an upcoming spell of cold and snowy weather. 

[Chesil View]

51 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I the only one on here who's more than a little sceptical about the upcoming spell of cold, snowy weather? I mean, look what happened last Christmas? And that was 'nailed on'!

To be fair Ed last xmas was never nailed on. It was very much dependent on weather systems meeting in just the right place at just the right time especially the further south you were. I,m a great believer that nothing is nailed on until its actually happening.