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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

With winter now almost upon us, the model thread is getting ever busier, and as such it's important to keep it on topic. So, please keep your posts to discussing the model output, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter thread.  Or, head to the moans and ramps thread.

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Posted by Paul,

Please don't discuss this here (there's comments on the guide if you want to ask a question etc), but obviously in a busy thread like this, it's hard to cater for everyone's needs and wants in terms of the content they want to see. But, for those who want a more curated experience, following members and then keeping up to date with their posts through the activity feed may be a great way to get to the content you want, without having to wade through the content you don't. So, here's a guide

Curate the content you see on the model thread

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Rain All Night Accomplished

Rain All Night

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Does anyone have the actual December 2010 chart for comparison, thanks 

This page shows you the progression of charts through the period of interest (the interesting bit is really what occurred in the last week or so of November). The polar vortex starts crashing into northern Europe around the 22nd.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=11&hour=0&year=2010&map=0&region=nh&mode=2&type=era

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Art, Graphics, NatureCould contain: Art, Graphics, Modern Art, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Plot, Chart, OutdoorsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Edited by RainAllNight
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CoventryWeather Seasoned

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted

Not worried by tonight's GFS. Seems like modelling is still struggling somewhat with the Atlantic Troughs next week. 

With an interesting GEM output tonight, it shows the mid term is far from solved yet. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

18z vs 12z - Just, I don't even know at this point what is happening here..

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Person, Nature, Face, HeadCould contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart, Sea, Water

 

Ha ha

keeping the strong jet on the other side of the NH for this winter😉

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

 

Nope - the chart on the left was the day 10 eps mean forecast from mid nov 2010 !   What did everyone assume I was comparing ??

thought that but ran out of posts and been watching boxing since - do you save all the ens suites?

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

Minds greater than mine help me out with models and here we see the East Pacific trough get really sharp at day 6

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Dinosaur, Reptile, Animal, Hurricane, StormCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Person, Map

Results positively for -NAO development - we don't have a jet marching through vs the retrogression - things are slowed up. Did not expect to see it flat line south however as per 18z -

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What are we looking at exactly?

The Jet stream.

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted (edited)

This trajectory fires up this low, much deeper than 12z indicating 18z progressive run possibly vs Ens.

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Edited by lorenzo
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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Are we ignoring the parallel run again now?  It’s looking pretty poor on that model compared to recent days. 

Not at all and it's a great call out. Parallel is on the other side of the envelope, given the prior trends and clusters a rebound to the chart below would represent quite a coup. Ens will be worth a look. 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, ArtCould contain: Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Nature, Person, Art

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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Posted

Those of you of a cold persuasion may like to see the last NOAA 500 mb anomaly chart for 6-10 days ahead.

 

For those not used to these charts don't get contour lines (in green) and the dashed blue and red lines showing negative and positive anomalies where shown.

The charts are pretty reliable if they show consistency from day to day, which they have over the past 3 days. However a lot of caution is needed to interprete them. I'll maybe have time sometime tomorrow morning to give my take on what they may suggest at the surface.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Not at all and it's a great call out. Parallel is on the other side of the envelope.

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Yep totally agree,...it doesn't tie in with the anomalies one bit,one for the bin.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Yep totally agree,...it doesn't tie in with the anomalies one bit,one for the bin.

And to think its this thats gona take over the op!!what rubbish 😒🤪!!!!

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Those of you of a cold persuasion may like to see the last NOAA 500 mb anomaly chart for 6-10 days ahead.

 

For those not used to these charts don't get contour lines (in green) and the dashed blue and red lines showing negative and positive anomalies where shown.

The charts are pretty reliable if they show consistency from day to day, which they have over the past 3 days. However a lot of caution is needed to interprete them. I'll maybe have time sometime tomorrow morning to give my take on what they may suggest at the surface.

Thanks John. I think it would be very useful for many myself included to start to learn these charts. Would save a lot of run to run shenanigans and Chuckle bros episodes. Tia

Edited by swfc
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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)

 Just watch the cold encroach from the north from t300 on gfs18z..jff

animwme0.thumb.gif.30dfcfc38a921afb8c7233f79ba8a9f8.gif

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep totally agree,...it doesn't tie in with the anomalies one bit,one for the bin.

We do run the risk of the trop PV running rampant if we don’t get the blocks in the right places. As I’ve said previously, the strat and trop will try to couple week 2. Any spoiler LPs or shortwaves could actually lead to a pattern collapse…we’d have to be REALLY unlucky for that.

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johncam Seasoned

johncam

Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted

The problem is any real cold is getting pushed further and further back 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

In terms of potential, it really doesn't get any better than this. We have had to endure some incredibly mediocre December's over the last decade and some. Let's hope this will be one to remember. 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

A word of caution, at D10 the Greenland HP anomaly is not as pronounced in the GEFS, I would imagine a few more failed WAA attempts in there.

I’d like to see a much better op and parallel tomorrow morning.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

A word of caution, at D10 the Greenland HP anomaly is not as pronounced in the GEFS, I would imagine a few more failed WAA attempts in there.

I’d like to see a much better op and parallel tomorrow morning.

Pub run though. Maybe we should be more worried if it showed the new ice age at day 10 lol. 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A word of caution, at D10 the Greenland HP anomaly is not as pronounced in the GEFS, I would imagine a few more failed WAA attempts in there.

I’d like to see a much better op and parallel tomorrow morning.

Not too shabby tbh 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A word of caution, at D10 the Greenland HP anomaly is not as pronounced in the GEFS, I would imagine a few more failed WAA attempts in there.

I’d like to see a much better op and parallel tomorrow morning.

Also, if I had a pound for every time GFS has promised us something like this at day 10 and beyond, I'd be rich. If, however, I had a pound for every time this sort of chart made its way down to day 4, I'd be hardly any better off than I am now 🤣. 

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