Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will the uk low resist the beast in the next 3 frames or not..

We’re in danger of becoming too west based here before the trough fully drops. That’s the price that’s paid for dithering about with that stupid low.

[on the coast]

Just now, CreweCold said:

We’re in danger of becoming too west based here before the trough fully drops. That’s the price that’s paid for dithering about with that stupid low.

240 Chart?

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will the uk low resist the beast in the next 3 frames or not..

Re enforcement from the west. Northern England and above in the cold south of that messy.. and uk low putting up on hell of a fights and two become one…

[Polar Maritime]

Just now, on the coast said:

240 Chart?

Yes absolutely a long way out and much to happen beforehand..

[tight isobar]

Gfs is becoming tedious viewing.. Gunnight see ya tomorrow

[Vikos]

Can't catch the excitement going on...

[Ali1977]

I’d take the pub run over the 12z that’s fir sure

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, on the coast said:

240 Chart?

The limpet low is long before that timeframe, that’s what we should keep in mind.

I’ll take the stress free route of the ECM please thank you.

[Polar Maritime]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The limpet low is long before that timeframe, that’s what we should keep in mind.

I’ll take the stress free route of the ECM please thank you.

Absolutely!

[Duane S.]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

All a big what if - but say these charts do come off. December being a month of the least amount of diurnal heating, uppers probably wouldn’t need to be so low once the cold air is established. It’s a good thing that we’re having a chilly start to the month as it will gradually lower the ground temperatures. If the cold becomes established then it will require less effort. Granted, that requires it does establish! I think I remember Gavin from GWV saying that the winter of 1962/1963 never really had all that in the way of exceptionally cold uppers, just a continued run of cold days, snow cover and frost. The blizzard of February 1978 also didn’t occur with extreme uppers.

I’m thinking here it may be a case of short term pain, long term gain… perhaps a couple days of cold, sleety messes and then the days get colder with the influence of long nights, minimal diurnal heating and prolong cold weather at the surface. Kind of like how in some mild high pressure systems in winter you can eventually get freezing fog even with +3 uppers. 

If we do get sustained cold, perhaps in a week to ten days time it will take less cold uppers to get some heavy snow in places. The only thing that may thwart that is a warm North Sea but I’m hoping that that will just work in our favour to create some big snowfall, which of course would make the surface even colder.

 

All that being said, we have to get there first for any of that to come off! Very exciting times. 

Indeed. Embedded cold is often overlooked. It creates a feedback loop of sorts, that can mean marginal situations/areas get snow that otherwise would’ve been sleet/rain. And yes, Feb ‘78 is a great example of this.

Its not for nothing the saying goes - get the cold in first…

[Captain Shortwave]

Disappointing GFS…

I was expecting double figure 850s, south westerly winds and enough rain to fill all the water butts in the UK by day 10. Tut tut on rescuing the cold weather to so degree….

Hopefully it will behave tomorrow and we can get cross model consensus on something pretty special.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Weathizard]

You can’t help but notice that the ‘real’ nirvana type cold is still staying at the end of the 9/10 day range, not to be negative just we’ve seen this many times before.

Calm and cautious optimism needed

[Eagle Eye]

Looking at the risk alone for the 18Z run and the first potential around the 4th is actually looking fairly good.

-5 and below (850's)

Risk of snow (24 hours)

And that's just the taster for the potential main event.

[Allseasons-Si]

Forget nit picking of every det run,...they will follow suit,the trend is much the same IE:-blocking over Greenland=trough undercut=plastered UK.

EPS day ten

[Vikos]

Winter still far away for us....

[damianslaw]

Just now, Vikos said:

Winter still far away for us....

Probably knock a good 3-4 degrees off these temps.

[Vikos]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Probably knock a good 3-4 degrees off these temps.

Why?

[Polar Maritime]

Let's forget about spelling, even I get it wrong sometimes.. on with the models, this isn't an Eglish Fred 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Polar Maritime
Spelling

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Probably knock a good 3-4 degrees off these temps.

Uppers aren’t great to be fair. Mostly -6 or -7 at best. That’s sleet at low levels given the high sea temperatures and modified surface layer. DPs will be elevated. -8 uppers have to be the benchmark for less marginal conditions.

A cleaner ejection of CAA is needed from the NE.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well here's me thinking it's a weather forum,but it turns out to be a class for English grammar! You can blame predictive texting and doing it at a fast pace for most of the spelling mistakes. Does it really matter as long as people understand the jest of the post! Nit picking at every frame of every model run is one thing,nit picking at spelling mistakes is just down right being snobby.

 

[zubzero]

4 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Some of the spelling and use of punctuation in here is absolutely dreadful. "Hear" instead of "Here"; "to" instead of "too". Using apostrophes in plural words.

And i bet half of you had a University education.

Tut!Tut!

Nice user name. 

So much blocking being shown across the models, its pointless taking much notice of any details for now, and leave that for the higher resolution models to resolve closer to the time. Let's hope this is the beginning of a classic. 

[HammerJack]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Well here's me thinking it's a weather forum,but it turns out to be a class for English grammar! You can blame predictive texting and doing it at a fast pace for most of the spelling mistakes. Does it really matter as long as people understand the jest of the post! Nit picking at every frame of every model run is one thing,nit picking at spelling mistakes is just down right being snobby.

 

Have you got a chart to back that up please??

[Polar Maritime]

Just now, Bristle Si said:

Open to debate

Let's end the debate, As it's gettin in the way of the topic at and.

[Vikos]

 ------->  ======= 

[Guest]

GEFS mean at 174hr:

Improved over the 12z run if it's cold you are after.

 

Operational run 6th warmest run of the suite at this stage for my area, but in close tandem with the control.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Guest