Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM latter stages= slack and very cold at the surface. Ice days even with -5 uppers.

[Jason M]

Just now, CreweCold said:

ECM latter stages= slack and very cold at the surface. Ice days even with -5 uppers.

Yep, we would basically generate a homegrown cold pool given the time of year. Very cold, but not the snowiest set up (albeit would be some around)

[Tim Bland]

No end in sight at day 10

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The 12z looks further South with lower Heights. Either way we have potential fireworks coming up next week,and even further into that run we are well placed for good old surface cold and given the time of year and low Sun will be a very good added bonus.

I said after viewing the gfs ens that I was expecting a solid ECM...How did I know?

1..My pure expertise of reading the models and background signals? Wrong.

2..Im a gambling man so took a wild punt? Wrong again.

3..im actually well versed with the paranormal mediums and have a very dear aunt called Meg?? You got it...

Brilliant output and always best to do it with a smile on your face and a sparkle in your eyes...makes it so less stressful,which at this time of year is the last thing we want.

When it comes to all things weather, I always ask my late Aunty Doris!

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM latter stages= slack and very cold at the surface. Ice days even with -5 uppers.

Crewe Cold seems happy...

It's official, the models have officially peaked

[Rain All Night]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

When it comes to all things weather, I always ask my late Aunty Doris!

Can we get her verification stats please??

[Singularity]

ECM 12z wins the ‘most interesting to experience’ run of the day award in my book. The UK has been through a fair few more brisk bitter easterlies than slack cold cyclonic setups in the past 2-3 decades.

The surface cold establishment would be quite something, especially above lying snow. Brutal for heating bills but I can’t deny that the excitement would offset that pain a bit.

[Vikos]

Wonder why nobody in here uses WXCHARTS as they have more to offer on the EC output than meteociel

  

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

ECM 12z wins the ‘most interesting to experience’ run of the day award in my book. The UK has been through a fair few more brisk bitter easterlies than slack cold cyclonic setups in the past 2-3 decades.

The surface cold establishment would be quite something, especially above lying snow. Brutal for heating bills but I can’t deny that the excitement would offset that pain a bit.

Yep it's the cold potential that intrigues me with the ECM run. We very seldom get deep surface cold in the UK but that's exactly what that run shows. December is the best time too because of the marginal surface heating.

 

[Northwest NI]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Wonder why nobody in here uses WXCHARTS as they have more to offer on the EC output than meteociel

  

Scotland and Ireland in particular doing well for snow there.

[GSP]

Cold aside, I am drawn to the 2 low pressures. One to the East causing quite an wind with the tight gradient. And also the system just off the Portuguese coast which looks quite a feature.

Come the day these both will probably change, may even disappear altogether but the fact there are quite stormy areas suggested throws another layer of interest to see how these pan out in the coming days.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Yep, we would basically generate a homegrown cold pool given the time of year. Very cold, but not the snowiest set up (albeit would be some around)

What about hoar frost/rime? looks like freezing fog too

3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Wonder why nobody in here uses WXCHARTS as they have more to offer on the EC output than meteociel

  

for fun of course! but snowless

[Eagle Eye]

Deep surface cold from this...

Don't anyone complain that the uppers wouldn't give Narnia because on this ECM they don't matter as much as they normally would.

If you do complain I won't poke you in the eye though, instead I'll just politely disagree.

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for fun of course! but snowless

Resulution quite better than meteociel

[Geordiesnow]

14 minutes ago, seb said:

I think the differences are far greater than similarities?

 

 

Nope they are similar but the details are different. 

Quicker northerly flow followed by slack low cyclonic pressure, this run is really not all that far away from this mornings run(which if you went on some comments you think it was a really poor run which it wasn't) but because the pattern was a bit further south and east it meant the mixing of the cold was not as noticetable as this mornings run. 

Like I say, the ECM feels more high risk but its more reward quicker. 

[Cloud 10]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Wonder why nobody in here uses WXCHARTS as they have more to offer on the EC output than meteociel

  

 

Yes indeed,paints a pretty picture for the middle of next week.

 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Excellent ECM 12z all the way to240hrs a strong possibility of snow to many parts of the U.K. as the polar low works it’s way south,Greenland high holding very firm as stated in my last blog the key to every door regarding cold very cold .Possibly looking at the best run up to Christmas for let’s say many many years.

[geordiekev]

Happy with the output today, just dont want the block to go too far North like last Christmas, though fluffy needs a lie down after seeing the GFS & ECM

[Mark wheeler]

Just waiting now to hear that the Ecm op was a warm outlier

[iceman1991]

29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

00z was actually snowier ..see below comparison 

Nothing for central southern England ? 

[Liam Burge]

38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

If anyone moans or waffles b####x regarding the ec 12z I’m gonna come round and poke ya in the eye 👁...

Ehhh EC could be better.. No -15c 850hpa temps over us!!!! 

[joggs]

It won't come off but the ECM.........wow. This is what is coldies dream of. Good all boards really. Weather it delivers or not, just enjoy. 

What a start to winter.......

[lassie23]

1million and one new posts since I last checked in, who was the 1 own up..Something must be a foot, maybe a foot of snow. I can't imagine it's because Mr Bartlett is visiting.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Just waiting now to hear that the Ecm op was a warm outlier

Well, assuming they're all singing from more-or-less the same hymn-sheet, I doubt it: the GFS 12Z certainly was not a warm outlier, it was merely one run among a dominant cold cluster:

    

[Norrance]

There have been a few posts mentioning polar lows and maybe a bit misunderstanding of what defines them. Here is a link to the learning area where @johnholmes gave an explanation. They are not low pressures that form up in the Polar regions and come down in the flow! 
https://community.netweather.tv/learning/basics/polar-lows-r76/?do=getNewComment&d=1&id=76

Edited December 1, 2022 by Norrance