Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

I think we can tell who are the glasses half full and glass half empty of the lot tonight. Right now my glass is just half.

Would like a beer instead please lol

[Jackski4]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

I think we can tell who are the glasses half full and glass half empty of the lot tonight. Right now my glass is just half.

Top it up then no in all honesty we’re in the exact same position we were yesterday just with a less than great run (ECM) I’m sure it’ll swing back over night. If I’m wrong I’m wrong and will take full responsibility so PM me for an apology tomorrow

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I think we can tell who are the glasses half full and glass half empty of the lot tonight. Right now my glass is just half.

I think we can also hazard a guess as to whose glasses were full, not very long ago, but are now empty... Gearing up for the pub run?

[lassie23]

Models change their minds more frequently than the UK changes Prime Minister

[Neilsouth]

8 minutes ago, Vikos said:

10 Days ago EC for today  and today 

  

That's crazy, completely different to the west and north west of us for what was forecasted

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

The best cluster for winter (IMO cluster 3) is also the smallest. Cluster 2 is in between.

I wonder if the origins of this ghastly run are in the discussion we were having this morning, about the high morphing into a Greenland part and a new Scandi part.  We were then discussing the positives of this for longevity of the spell.  I know the op’s in cluster 1, but cluster 2 - the in between one - shows what I mean.  For that to happen, the cold tap from the vortex had to be turned off, and the ECM op is an extreme example of what might happen with the flux south of cold air to the UK quickly curtailed.  

[CoventryWeather]

10 minutes ago, Midlander said:

MOGREPS 12z, ECMWF OP had positive uppers by 10th

Not as high as the ECM though. Largely unsupported by other model suites apart from it's only ensembles. 

 

I still wouldn't worry about any mild weather, think the cold weather is likely in any situation.

[blizzard81]

Ecm and much of its suite says cold snap as opposed to cold spell. However, I don't think the milder blip (if it happens) will last long. I believe the colder synoptics will win out just in time for the last third of December. I actually think based on tonight's ecm that we stand a much better chance of a cold and potentially snowy Christmas. 

[Vikos]

5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

That's crazy, completely different to the west and north west of us for what was forecasted

Same for GFS, left side 10 days ago, right side todays outcome

         

 

Everything beyond +120 is just 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Vikos

[Singularity]

That at least partly tropical low and how it interacts with areas of vorticity to its northeast is being handled more than a little differently by ECM compared to other modelling, with far more progressive results. Ones we’ve seen GFS drift away from today while UKM has shown no interest.

Therefore I see it as a separate source of uncertainty to the trough arriving from the northeast and how far south that is.

We have a way in which the cold spell might not quite manage snowfall in the lowland south (trough too far north), and a way in which it might get blown away (very progressive low from near Azores). 

ECM has both ways combine for the most extreme result. I find it hard to take seriously despite some EPS runs being similar (same model dynamics, after all), but only due to the progressiveness of the low from near the Azores.

So on balance, I’m still seeing a continuation of cold through next weekend for most or all UK, but perhaps moderated a bit in the south, to much gnashing of snow seeker teeth.

Still time for that trough from the NE to adjust back south but it’s getting tight now for southerners.

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 12 z Ensemble mean for London .......... forget the Op after 9th Dec it is totally extreme .... relax 

[Candice Bartley]

This got confusing really fast

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

ECM 12 z Ensemble mean for London .......... forget the Op after 9th Dec it is totally extreme .... relax 

It has to be said, the op looks a bit over the top. In more ways than one

[Stuie]

Interesting...

[Cold Winter Night]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wonder if the origins of this ghastly run are in the discussion we were having this morning, about the high morphing into a Greenland part and a new Scandi part.  We were then discussing the positives of this for longevity of the spell.  I know the op’s in cluster 1, but cluster 2 - the in between one - shows what I mean.  For that to happen, the cold tap from the vortex had to be turned off, and the ECM op is an extreme example of what might happen with the flux south of cold air to the UK quickly curtailed.  

That could very well be.

It is interesting that GEM, although a completely different development, also starts building new Scandi heights in the cold air in its last frames.
As others have argued, teleconnections are not working against something like that happening later on in December.

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

ECM 12 z Ensemble mean for London .......... forget the Op after 9th Dec it is totally extreme .... relax 

Extreme yes, but mean is now at -3 and between the 10th and 12th not one run has 850s below -5.  That said, it may look different in the morning. A west based set up has always been well in the mix and the trend has been towards that solution. 

[Vikos]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

EC = Outlier....for shure! 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

That could very well be.

It is interesting that GEM, although a completely different development, also starts building new Scandi heights in the cold air in its last frames.
As others have argued, teleconnections are not working against something like that happening later on in December.

Could be a new trend to build a new Scandi high at quite short notice. Difference being this new one would pack a punch. 

[bluearmy]

 

   30 minutes ago,  bluearmy said: 

the mean uppers next weekend across s england have risen from -5 c to -2c 

surface temps not so high, going up from 2c to 3.5c 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Paul
Don't think your post was removed or moved, I can't see any sign of the original one.

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, Candice Bartley said:

This got confusing really fast

Don't worry it does every year. People have widely contrasting opinions on each model run. I would listen to the professionals (even if they do talk high level stuff, you get a general idea of what they're feeling if you might not understand it, sometimes I don't understand what they're saying).

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure why this wasn’t considered model discussion 

   30 minutes ago,  bluearmy said: 

the mean uppers next weekend across s england have risen from -5 c to -2c 

surface temps not so high, going up from 2c 

Over 200 posts since ecm.... I guess . Any thoughts on why surface is not following 850s ?

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure why this wasn’t considered model discussion 

   30 minutes ago,  bluearmy said: 

the mean uppers next weekend across s england have risen from -5 c to -2c 

surface temps not so high, going up from 2c to 3.5c 

Maybe human nature not to dwell on such news

 

[bluearmy]

The eps are definitively supportive of the op

Anyone looking at the graphs and saying ‘oh it’s an outlier’  are missing what the suite is showing 

the largest cluster supports the op days 8 to 10 - it can’t be any clearer than that

the op is an extreme member of the cluster envelope but it’s represented within it - if that eps suite is going to become the way forward then yes, we are looking at some potential snowfall when the trough first drops in but beyond that day or so, we would have to look for the next cycle and wave of cold 

 

[Blessed Weather]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure why this wasn’t considered model discussion 

   30 minutes ago,  bluearmy said: 

the mean uppers next weekend across s england have risen from -5 c to -2c 

surface temps not so high, going up from 2c to 3.5c 

Is there a problem blue? Your post is still there but I may be misinterpreting your comment. Maybe pm me.

[Earthshine]

15 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

ECM 12 z Ensemble mean for London .......... forget the Op after 9th Dec it is totally extreme .... relax 

Milder cluster though.  Greenland block getting adjusted westward