Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Weatherman_93]

Not looking so bad in a weeks time but again this has changed on a daily basis.

[snowblizzard]

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Which TV forecast are showing weather 8 days away? 

Monday & Tuesday are only 5/6 days ahead!

ITV & BBC both hinting about less cold early next week.

[Froze were the Days]

49 minutes ago, Weatherman_93 said:

Not looking so bad in a weeks time but again this has changed on a daily basis.

They're about as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike, they change quite a bit a couple of days ahead never mind for a week. I'm not even sure if they're taken from latest ECM runs or what.

48 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

ITV & BBC both hinting about less cold early next week.

I think that must of been on the back of last nights EC run...I wouldn't have too much faith in what they're saying in the national news.

[Mapantz]

GFS and ECM are showing rain for my location, so it's on a knife edge really. Freezing rain a possibility too.

[joggs]

Not a good GFS for coldies. 

Onto the next.

Edited December 7, 2022 by joggs

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

Thanks. Reading between the lines, I am understanding that if it is a tropical cyclone, it would be powerful enough to crash through the block, whereas if it is a bog standard low pressure it's going to struggle without a strong Canada PV and Jet stream over Africa and a larger than normal block over Greenland/Iceland/Scandinavia. If the chances are 50%, I don't understand why every run I've seen has it blown up to resemble a hurricane when it appears/lurks to our west.

Not really. It doesn't make much difference.

The primary difference between a bartropic and barlonic low here is just that one will be named and the other will not. Both will inject a lot of tropical moisture into the jet stream and see barlonic strengthening.

The location means there's not a big difference whether it forms or not.

[The Enforcer]

12 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

I can broadly summarise the various outcomes for early next week that the models have shown at various points:

 

1. Low passes way to South - UK under easterly feed

2. Low passes way to South - UK under northerly feed

3. Low passes way to South - UK under slack feed

4. Low skims the South coast - E feed follows

5. Low skims the South coast - N feed follows

6. Low skims the South coast - slack feed follows

7. Low provides all snow event - E feed follows

8. Low provides all snow event - N feed follows

9. Low provides all snow event - slack feed follows

10. Low provides snow to rain to snow event - E feed follows

11. Low provides snow to rain to snow event - N feed follows

12. Low provides snow to rain to snow event - slack feed follows

13. Low provides snow to rain event - E feed follows

14. Low provides snow to rain event - N feed follows

15. Low provides snow to rain event - slack feed follows

16. Low provides snow to rain event - W feed follows

17. Low provides total rain event - W feed follows

 

In the context of last 'winter' I would settle for any of the first 16 outcomes.

18. Low provides snow to rain event followed by Spanish Plume

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Also I have just been given a <2 cm snow warning for tomorrow evening.

That's an ice warning MIA.

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Probably fair enough @bluearmy, I’m trying to think when we last had a channel low, was it really Feb 2009?  That long ago?  

The memory fades as to the amount of uncertainty and anyway it was before I watched the models. 

February 2019

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

The thing that frustrates me the most about the regional and main weather forecasting is there apparent surprise of having Winter weather, in, err, Winter!  I know it's not guarunteed in the UK but it should hardly come as any great surprise. I often wonder what they would be saying if we had a nailed on 62/63 type Winter on the cards! 

Who knows, perhaps this year we will, as the model thread has been very lively of late! It would be typical of the UK to get one when there is a Energy / Cost of living crisis going on... 

[Guest]

15C possible next week

 

[Summer Sun]

London has activated the Severe Weather Emergency Protocol with temperatures forecast to drop to -3

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure if any of you have seen the TUESDAY Met O you tube outlook into next week, well worth taking a look.

Not sure if it is the correct place but I'm dropping it into this link

 

[Mark Parsons]

49 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Firstly there's a good pepping of snow showers moving South from around the Norwegian sea...so you would expect an increase as they encounter warmer waters. Also it may pay to keep an eye around the Irish sea over the next day or so,I've noticed many a band of precipitation gather around here in the past before spreading SE. Quite a little mass of snow showers around NE Scotland also...so nice to see some are getting the action. Not sure how many members we have from those neck of the woods though.

 

[Anon90]

We've seen this many times before, a brief reprieve from the models only for them to firm up on the worst possible outcome on the next set of runs, hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case but me gut tells me it will be.

[Jackski4]

5 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

 

Where can I watch this? Thanks 

[V for Very Cold]

I don’t know if this is a sign, but I’ve just seen my first gritting truck 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

A beautiful crisp and sunny day with some sparkly ground frost. I love these kind of conditions during winter. 

[Mark Parsons]

18 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Where can I watch this? Thanks 

 

[Liam Burge]

Just went out and bought a flask so my internal organs don't pack up over the next few days! Probably just cursed the cold and now it'll be mild.

[Lord Baltimore]

10 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Just went out and bought a flask so my internal organs don't pack up over the next few days! Probably just cursed the cold and now it'll be mild.

Let's hope so.

[V for Very Cold]

MOD threat is quiet! Calm before the storm? 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A lot of nervous members in case the GFS route chosen!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Met Office not keen on cold weather for the South by next weekend and Xmas week in their latest update!

[Mark Parsons]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Met Office not keen on cold weather for the South by next weekend and Xmas week in their latest update!

It's much the same as yesterday's tbh.......battleground scenarios are hard to predict so anything can still happen