Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Andrew Davies]

No SSW  response  for the uk this winter sorry to be a disappointment,  just been confirmed by very reliable person who does the weather prediction every year on wildlife and nature.  Pretty accurate each year in fairness, 

[Ruzzi]

4 hours ago, Andrew Davies said:

No SSW  response  for the uk this winter sorry to be a disappointment,  just been confirmed by very reliable person who does the weather prediction every year on wildlife and nature.  Pretty accurate each year in fairness, 

Anyone purporting to be able to confirm such a thing at this stage..... is talking

I'm also a very reliable person.... but I can't see into the future unfortunately. The earliest response date roughly has always been suggested as around the 6th of March.... which is still 10 days out. That coupled with the fact that we have 3 separate successive strat warnings which haven't all happened yet tells its own story. 

Whatever they have said, take with a big pinch of salt because at it stands, absolutely nobody can make that call with any assurance. 

[joggs]

Not seen charts yet but last posts was five hours ago on mid thread. Oh dear......

[KTtom]

Just nipped over to the other thread for a brief update....I take it the forthcomming blizzard is on track then?

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, Andrew Davies said:

No SSW  response  for the uk this winter sorry to be a disappointment,  just been confirmed by very reliable person who does the weather prediction every year on wildlife and nature.  Pretty accurate each year in fairness, 

Flora and fauna are reactive rather than proactive.

As I said before, if they were proactive, they would not allow themselves to be subjected to late season cold. How often do you hear of plants and animals suffering from late season frosts?

[Nick L]

6 hours ago, Andrew Davies said:

No SSW  response  for the uk this winter sorry to be a disappointment,  just been confirmed by very reliable person who does the weather prediction every year on wildlife and nature.  Pretty accurate each year in fairness, 

If they were that accurate they would be filthy rich!

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as those die hard cold fans on the MOD thread have even started to realise that there is no significant late winter spell going to evolve now! Yes it could get cold enough in March for snow to fall, but that's normal for March and even April! It might even turn warm ,that's normal too in March/April.  Looking forward for normal service to resume tbh. I expect the Atlantic to return by mid-month onwards ,with some Spring warmth and rain....!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Looks like there's more nothingness for the foreseeable. 

Certainly the most boring February of my lifetime.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[JoeShmoe]

I suspect, rather like bears in reverse, the winter folk will soon begin their spring + summer hibernation

Lets hope its long, warm and sunny !

[jellybaby1969]

Yes... looks like another 2 to 3 weeks of fairly benign weather. Great for dog walking and doing general outdoor activities. Everything was always at day 10, everyday similiar charts getting posted at day 10 !! Its really no suprise that the output has flipped somewhat to be dominated by high pressure centred over or close to the UK.  Just a pity so many  get carried away and take the baited hook..

[Updated_Weather]

8 hours ago, Andrew Davies said:

No SSW  response  for the uk this winter sorry to be a disappointment,  just been confirmed by very reliable person who does the weather prediction every year on wildlife and nature.  Pretty accurate each year in fairness, 

Based on what? Hear say?

No one can tell you if & what the SSW response will be. Maybe watch the latest Met O 10 day trend. They explain we will not know anything regarding SSW until early march at the earliest. Which is still 10 days+ away. A lot of chopping and churning from Models.

[SussexSnowman]

Whilst the weather has been uneventful the last couple of weeks, we did have a day of drizzle. Look I don’t mind this benign weather as my garden hasn’t been overgrown and me tulips look set to be on time for the first time in many a year.

However I will say it’s been quite a while since I felt a strong gust of wind. That’s probably been the most unusual trend I’ve seen. Summer of 2021 and into Autumn didn’t have much umph and this winter and even autumn has been largely settled. 

Weather is in a strange place. Just seen LA having a blizzard warning. I wasn’t even in double digits of age the last time that happened

[Elfyn Jones]

 This looks like the end of weather as we know it. All I can say is model this

[Bald Eagle]

The warmer and drier the better. ITS CHEAPER!

 

 

 

 

 

[markyo]

Like it or not we need rain, we need a wet Spring!

[Methuselah]

And, once again, all it takes for 'winter to be over' is a handful of less-than-perfect model runs. 

[LRD]

2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Looks like there's more nothingness for the foreseeable. 

Certainly the most boring February of my lifetime.

Yep agreed

And, in recent times, this Feb has had some pretty stiff competition

Blimey, even when we didn't get cold in the past we, at least, got some stormy weather and that other side of winter was interesting even if not necessarily wanted. Lately, it's juts a load of benign nothingness. We must have the most boring climate in the world at and around our latitude

Said it before and I'll say it again - winter model/weather watching is becoming increasingly boring and fruitless. Really very quickly losing interest in this hobby, although summer can still be of interest in terms of warm extremes

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Like it or not we need rain, we need a wet Spring!

True - I hope it's going to be warm rain

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

And, once again, all it takes for 'winter to be over' is a handful of less-than-perfect model runs. 

In another 4 days time meteorologically speaking Winter will be over  have to say getting a bit tired of this SSW and proposed developments...ECM is still at the D10 potential, GFS swaying between good runs and worse runs (not that I take any notice of it). Roll on Spring warmth.

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

And, once again, all it takes for 'winter to be over' is a handful of less-than-perfect model runs. 

To be fair, there are only 4 and a bit days of winter! 

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Certainly the most boring February of my lifetime.

Have to agree with that!...2 days of chilly weather and frosts the rest either cloudy the odd bit of drizzle as per the last 3 days or some sunny days but Mild and all a bit bland.

[JGreenwoodGolf]

Whilst I'm not crazy for our British February weather, a least it's a lot more predictable than other places. I went to NYC last week and it was 17 degrees one day, then it was 1 degree the next.

[TEITS]

12 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

And, once again, all it takes for 'winter to be over' is a handful of less-than-perfect model runs. 

I am now at the point in which I don't care whether we see a cold spell and snow. However nobody knows what is going to happen for early March. The models have been dreadfully inconsistent. A good example is the chart below. We may only have a few days of winter left but this chart would bring weather more like deep mid winter.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, JGreenwoodGolf said:

Whilst I'm not crazy for our British February weather, a least it's a lot more predictable than other places. I went to NYC last week and it was 17 degrees one day, then it was 1 degree the next.

Predictable (and consistent) is usually boring in autumn and winter

Your New York example is, at least, interesting

[Nick L]

13 minutes ago, JGreenwoodGolf said:

Whilst I'm not crazy for our British February weather, a least it's a lot more predictable than other places. I went to NYC last week and it was 17 degrees one day, then it was 1 degree the next.

Yeah the "British weather is variable and unpredictable" line is absolute rubbish. It's largely benign with little day-to-day variation in comparison to some climates.

[al78]

I think SSWs are overrated as far as cold hyping 10 days ahead is concerned. What it means is there is an enhanced probability of a slowing of the westerly winds and a transition to a more blocked pattern a week or so after a SSW, but the weather locally depends on where the blocks form. If the blocks form over Greenland or Scandinavia, the UK will likely experience cold and snow, but if they form over Europe or the mid Atlantic, there won't be any wintry weather of note. Currently the polar vortex is displaced but the severe cold is over Canada and N America where there is a trough coming down from the Arctic.