Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[davehsug]

Does anyone know when the mad thread will return to actually discussing weather models, rather than hypothesising about reversals, splits & SSWs? The desperation for cold is so all-consuming, many seem to have forgotten about Actual weather. I'll believe any of it if it starts to appear in the ECM and then UKMO models.

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Does anyone know when the mad thread will return to actually discussing weather models, rather than hypothesising about reversals, splits & SSWs? The desperation for cold is so all-consuming, many seem to have forgotten about Actual weather. I'll believe any of it if it starts to appear in the ECM and then UKMO models.

It's the weather models that predict what's going on high up - is it not?

Edited February 6, 2023 by Gowon

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Never mind about into February ... Them lot's is talking about April's weather!! I must have slept a few months

[HellItsHot]

I look in horror at the mod thread and the enthusiasm for a possible cold April. As far as I’m concerned, April is a spring month and I want spring weather.  
 

The days are too long for lingering Winter gloom. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 minute ago, HellItsHot said:

I look in horror at the mod thread and the enthusiasm for a possible cold April. As far as I’m concerned, April is a spring month and I want spring weather.  
 

The days are too long for lingering Winter gloom. 

Amen!!

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Reversal is about 16th by my eye.  Effects being seen w/b 27th.  Still, depends I guess on the nature of the reversal for each member, and what actually happens is very much still up for grabs there.

2018 reversal on 12th Feb, so about 4 days later, that should be in the noise.  I still think an impact on the scale of 2018 is unlikely, though.

Looking at 2018 the SSW occured on the 12th, we had a closed upper high over the pole around the 14th and pressure built over Scandinavia around the 22nd.

Do we have a list of SSW's by strength.

2 hours ago, Don said:

A little off topic but if we look at the summers of 2013 and 2018, this perhaps does not bode well for those who have a dislike of hot weather?!

Much like Warm April>Cold Summers, those are still somewhat outliers. Across the CET record a cold Spring still means a not warm summer in so far as we have any weak correlation.

[cheese]

18 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

As far as UK winters go, so far it hasn't been that bad here and is far better than many other recent winters. We have had some decent cold spells accompanied by sunshine which have been lovely. A bit more snow would have been nice, but I am more than happy with what we had.

Despite having many rainy days, it has been a very quiet autumn and winter storm wise, with still no named storm yet. I don't see much hope for February providing anything of the kind either.

I think February will end up being largely a benign month with some cold days here and there, particularly the closing days of the month. 

 

January was very sunny for most of the UK - here in Leeds we had >170% of the average January sun. February is continuing that theme with pleasant winter sunshine.

Long may it continue. 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Indices ranked 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2021-22: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2022-23 : 55 (6th Feb)

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[NorthYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Indices ranked 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2021-22: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2022-23 : 55 (6th Feb)

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Hi Kev is there somewhere where I can see how your index’s are calculated as id like to start doing something like this in the future. Thanks

[Mike Poole]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Looking at 2018 the SSW occured on the 12th, we had a closed upper high over the pole around the 14th and pressure built over Scandinavia around the 22nd.

Do we have a list of SSW's by strength.

Much like Warm April>Cold Summers, those are still somewhat outliers. Across the CET record a cold Spring still means a not warm summer in so far as we have any weak correlation.

I can’t find one by strength, this lists them by split or displacement, the split ones will probably be stronger:

 

Just a moment...

WWW.RESEARCHGATE.NET

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I can’t find one by strength, this lists them by split or displacement, the split ones will probably be stronger:

 

Just a moment...

WWW.RESEARCHGATE.NET

 

Since 2018, I believe that there was also an SSW in Jan / Feb 2021; could someone please correct me if I am wrong?  I think that this led to some of the colder spells in that winter.

Edited February 7, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

Just now, vizzy2004 said:

Hi Kev is there somewhere where I can see how your index’s are calculated as id like to start doing something like this in the future. Thanks

Hi vizzy

Equation is         

10 x [(the number of days with lying snow)+(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days where the temperature has been at or below 0C)] divided by the mean maximum temperature.

You could use your data from you own weather station or you could use your closest official weather station or one of those you see on wunderground

/Assets/Images/logo-global.png

Met Office WOW - Home Page

WOW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The UK Met Office Weather Observation Website (WOW). WOW allows anyone to submit their own weather data, anywhere in the world.

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Hi vizzy

Equation is         

10 x [(the number of days with lying snow)+(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days where the temperature has been at or below 0C)] divided by the mean maximum temperature.

You could use your data from you own weather station or you could use your closest official weather station or one of those you see on wunderground

/Assets/Images/logo-global.png

Met Office WOW - Home Page

WOW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The UK Met Office Weather Observation Website (WOW). WOW allows anyone to submit their own weather data, anywhere in the world.

 

I do actually believe that this winter has so far seen more in the way of fog compared to recent years.  The cold spell in December did see some fog on some days in places, and there was also some fog at times in the spell of colder weather that we had after mid-January.  Fog has certainly been another aspect of winter weather that appears to have all but disappeared in recent years in most parts of the country.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Winter 2022-23 so far looked to promise so much at the start, at least compared to recent years anyway, with a potent 11 day cold spell in December, but when this broke just after mid-December, the rest of this winter so far has produced little in the way of significant cold outbreaks, with just a week or so that was colder (though nothing overly dramatic) just after mid-January.  If the rest of this month and even into early March does not deliver something from a cold perspective, then I think that winter 2022-23 could in some ways be seen as a pear shaped winter, joining the list of the likes of 2010-11, 1996-97, 1981-82, that were cold early on but went downhill and were followed by next to nothing, albeit with a shorter cold spell to begin with, meaning that 2022-23 could turn into a less extreme version of a pear shaped winter than the others above.

There is still time for a spell of colder weather to show up (whether that be significant / intense or modest / less dramatic) before this month is out, but if we are to see any chance of that, we would need to see it appearing in the computer models soon.  I think that if a cold spell did materialize before this month is out, then I think that winter 2022-23 could still be seen as a fairly average winter, but if this month does not deliver anything from a cold perspective, then winter 2022-23 will really go down as a pear shaped winter, but just one that is not as cold to begin with as 2010-11, 1996-97 and 1981-82.

You never know, February 2005 is one example that I can think of where the second half of February did deliver a pattern change to a cold spell of weather after there had been limited cold in January and the first half of February, though I cannot think of any examples since 2005.

I have done my calculations, and I will say that this February only actually needs a final CET of 4.3 or less to make 2022-23 the coldest winter since 2012-13.  If we could manage to achieve that, then although winter 2022-23 will not have been particularly cold overall, it will still be seen as an improvement on recent years if it could still manage to be the coldest winter overall in ten years.  

It has been said numerous times before, that winters like 2017-18 and 2020-21 could be the modern versions of 2009-10, 2012-13, and December 2010, and that we are now in an era where winters like 2017-18 or 2020-21 are now the greatest depth of cold for a winter in the UK that is now realistically possible to develop, and if we get a further cold spell before this winter is out then winter 2022-23 could join the list with 17-18 and 20-21, but if there is no further cold spell this winter then 2022-23 will likely be seen as another milder than average winter.

Edited February 7, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do actually believe that this winter has so far seen more in the way of fog compared to recent years.  The cold spell in December did see some fog on some days in places, and there was also some fog at times in the spell of colder weather that we had after mid-January.  Fog has certainly been another aspect of winter weather that appears to have all but disappeared in recent years in most parts of the country.

When I think of winter I think of snow, frost and low temperatures, I don't really think of fog. 

Also fog can occur during mild weather, for instance what if you are live on a hill? It could be 11°C and shrouded in hill fog. Should that be included in a winter index that measures the degree of wintriness? Hill fog at 11°C?  Or one of those very mild drizzly airmasses where visibility really drops and how do you differentiate between thick mist and fog? 

 

[SunSean]

Will be interesting to see which weather forecaster is right for my area this week. BBC have the whole week of having loads of beautiful winter sunshine while Met Office have gone for fully overcast from Thursday onwards. Still don't get how 2 forecasters can be so wildly different in terms of sunshine lol. Hopefully BBC is correct!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

When I think of winter I think of snow, frost and low temperatures, I don't really think of fog. 

Also fog can occur during mild weather, for instance what if you are live on a hill? It could be 11°C and shrouded in hill fog. Should that be included in a winter index that measures the degree of wintriness? Hill fog at 11°C?  Or one of those very mild drizzly airmasses where visibility really drops and how do you differentiate between thick mist and fog? 

 

My point is that fog has traditionally occurred during the winter season and fills the air white - so fog in my view is the white stuff that fills the air away from where there is any surface to stick to; snow falls and sticks to the ground and surfaces, and frost forms on the ground and on surfaces, so in reality frost, snow and fog are all different forms of the white stuff.  "Winter white" from fog is visible in the air above the ground and surfaces.  To make the air white it has to be foggy, whereas snow forms in the sky and falls to make the ground and surfaces white, and frost actually forms on the ground.  Compared to fog, frost and snow do not really make the air white in the same way.  

Away from the winter season it is rare to see fog, at least away from high ground and near coastal areas.  

[NorthYorksWeather]

59 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Hi vizzy

Equation is         

10 x [(the number of days with lying snow)+(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days where the temperature has been at or below 0C)] divided by the mean maximum temperature.

You could use your data from you own weather station or you could use your closest official weather station or one of those you see on wunderground

/Assets/Images/logo-global.png

Met Office WOW - Home Page

WOW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The UK Met Office Weather Observation Website (WOW). WOW allows anyone to submit their own weather data, anywhere in the world.

 

Thanks. Is it strictly winter Dec-Feb or is it Autumn to Spring? 
I imagine it will be quite low this winter as we have had no snow falling nor settling, quite a few days below 0 though.

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Thanks. Is it strictly winter Dec-Feb or is it Autumn to Spring? 
I imagine it will be quite low this winter as we have had no snow falling nor settling, quite a few days below 0 though.

I restrict it to the meteorological winter 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Since 2018, I believe that there was also an SSW in Jan / Feb 2021; could someone please correct me if I am wrong?  I think that this led to some of the colder spells in that winter.

About Jan 5th 2021.  Did nothing for cold prospects (at least down here in the south).

[northwestsnow]

9 hours ago, HellItsHot said:

I look in horror at the mod thread and the enthusiasm for a possible cold April. As far as I’m concerned, April is a spring month and I want spring weather.  
 

The days are too long for lingering Winter gloom. 

Me too.

Each to their own but I can't think of anything worse.

[cyclonic happiness]

26 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

My point is that fog has traditionally occurred during the winter season and fills the air white - so fog in my view is the white stuff that fills the air away from where there is any surface to stick to; snow falls and sticks to the ground and surfaces, and frost forms on the ground and on surfaces, so in reality frost, snow and fog are all different forms of the white stuff.  "Winter white" from fog is visible in the air above the ground and surfaces.  To make the air white it has to be foggy, whereas snow forms in the sky and falls to make the ground and surfaces white, and frost actually forms on the ground.  Compared to fog, frost and snow do not really make the air white in the same way.  

Away from the winter season it is rare to see fog, at least away from high ground and near coastal areas.  

 

51 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

When I think of winter I think of snow, frost and low temperatures, I don't really think of fog. 

Also fog can occur during mild weather, for instance what if you are live on a hill? It could be 11°C and shrouded in hill fog. Should that be included in a winter index that measures the degree of wintriness? Hill fog at 11°C?  Or one of those very mild drizzly airmasses where visibility really drops and how do you differentiate between thick mist and fog? 

 

I agree with the OP.

Here in the Middle Midlands, we used to get a lot of rime frosts due to freezing fog, but I think the last time we say a decent amount of rime frost was ten years ago.

Even during the cold spell in December, we had a day of freezing fog, but it left no rime whatsoever and no visible frost, it's weird??

I do think something fundamental has gone awry with the weather in the UK, the old rules of weather that I spend years reading in old weather books in the library, that used to apply almost without fail, now fail 99% of the time, nothing can be relied upon

[Weather-history]

26 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

My point is that fog has traditionally occurred during the winter season and fills the air white - so fog in my view is the white stuff that fills the air away from where there is any surface to stick to; snow falls and sticks to the ground and surfaces, and frost forms on the ground and on surfaces, so in reality frost, snow and fog are all different forms of the white stuff.  "Winter white" from fog is visible in the air above the ground and surfaces.  To make the air white it has to be foggy, whereas snow forms in the sky and falls to make the ground and surfaces white, and frost actually forms on the ground.  Compared to fog, frost and snow do not really make the air white in the same way.  

Away from the winter season it is rare to see fog, at least away from high ground and near coastal areas.  

You would have been knackered with your point on fog about 60 years ago as fog was often a horrible thick yellow substance and was anything but white. 

We thankfully don't get the pea-soupers of old with days on end with a choking fog thanks to the clean air act and I think fog "intensities" have decreased because of this.

[Bristawl Si]

UK Winters past and now.

Never mind snow 'issues' what's happened to wet and windy or storms? I thought they were meant to be more common these days.

Our Winters have become much more benign.

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

About Jan 5th 2021.  Did nothing for cold prospects (at least down here in the south).

January 2021 and the first half of February 2021 had more in the way of cold outbreaks than many other recent winters have had even if they were not exceptional in cold spell terms, so a SSW in Jan 2021 obviously helped to some extent as although winter 2020-21 wasn't particularly cold in the grand scheme of things, it was still one of the better winters for cold in the UK since 2012-13.