Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[bluearmy]

44 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Just a quickie any chance the possibility / myth of the earths core stopping  and mag pole shift will have any effect on the weather and models ? Any thoughts ? 

Please move mods if you think it is justified

I don’t think it’s actually stopping - just slowing a lot. I’m not sure that physics allows it to actually stop ? 

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that’s very clear, whether the trop plays ball after that, we will have to wait and see.  71% of 6z GEFS go for a SSW - and, notably, all the (higher resolution) op runs have had a reversal for some runs now, so hopeful that this time it will actually occur.  Best not to count chickens yet though!

You make this point, or one similar, often.  I see no evidence that anyone on this forum regards a SSW as a magical path to certain cold!  I’d go further and say there are no magical paths to certain cold for the UK.  What we can say is that a SSW does shuffle the pack, with a few extra aces in there - after that, it is luck of the draw.  But - usually - that by itself gives us a greater chance of a cold evolution than the status quo, which as we know for the UK is often dire for cold chances.  

Agree last week in Feb is the earliest we would see impacts, though.  

I wonder if the trend for the spv to track east into n Russia following its displacement into scandi will mean that we don’t actually get a reversal at 10hpa ??

[Froze were the Days]

4 hours ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Think 20/21 was colder than 91 to 2021 average

And 2018

True but I generally go by 61-90 series, many mild winters in that 91-2021 series...you don't really need a cold winter to be below that series you've compared with...

[summer blizzard]

Contrary to media statements, the core simply slowed down and changed direction. It apparently does so on a cyclical basis.

[Rob 79812010]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

True but I generally go by 61-90 series, many mild winters in that 91-2021 series...you don't really need a cold winter to be below that series you've compared with...

True enough! Was thinking that as I typed!

[knocker]

The chasing cold thread is morphing seamlessly into a 'chase the SSW' thread. Where will it all end I ask myself.

Edited February 5, 2023 by knocker

[johncam]

Current out has us cloudy 13 out of the next 14 days and relatively mild to boot , Feb is no longer apart from a few exceptions a winter month . Bloody depressing 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The chasing cold thread is morphing seamlessly into a 'chase the SSW' thread. Where will it all end I ask myself.

In disappointment I imagine.

I'm loosing track, it's gonna happen, it's not going to happen. It will give us cold and snow, it won't give us cold and snow.

Edited February 5, 2023 by snowblind

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, andreas said:

I have consulted A Practical English Grammar by Thomson & Martinet and they say that 'an' is used before words beginning with a vowel, a mute h (e.g. hour) or individual letters spoken with a vowel sound (e.g. an MP, an 's').

Correct

 

BFTP

[Met.]

Last time I was on here, 3 days ago, people were hyping up some cold spell. I just checked my forecast - lowest high is 6°C. What happened to that then?

[Methuselah]

A shortage of balloon-data beckons... the Yanks are shooting weather balloons! 

[Penrith Snow]

4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

True but I generally go by 61-90 series, many mild winters in that 91-2021 series...you don't really need a cold winter to be below that series you've compared with...

I agree about the 91 to 2021 series being far too mild but i think 61-90 which includes winters 63 and 79 is setting the bar too high.

I prefer 71-2000 as a better indicator of our long term climate pre GW

Andy

[mbrothers]

40 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

If the reversal does happen and we get Easterly winds we will likely see out the rest of February without a named storm.

No named storm during winter would be extraordinary!!

Since they named ordinary winter storms 

[Polaris]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

If the reversal does happen and we get Easterly winds we will likely see out the rest of February without a named storm.

No named storm during winter would be extraordinary!!

Remember the good old days when a named storm was a low pressure system. 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Remember the good old days when a named storm was a low pressure system. 

Indeed. Much better system now thankfully as things evolve. Far easier to get messaging out of severe weather with naming & great for calling back severe weather too, i.e “ remember that storm in February 2020” vs “remember storm Dennis”. 

[mbrothers]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Indeed. Much better system now thankfully as things evolve. Far easier to get messaging out of severe weather with naming & great for calling back severe weather too, i.e “ remember that storm in February 2020” vs “remember storm Dennis”. 

But no different to what used to be an ordinary winter storm. 

[Met4Cast]

17 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

But no different to what used to be an ordinary winter storm. 

It’s not supposed to be different? It’s about clearer public messaging around severe weather. 

[lassie23]

38 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

In a word, no. Things haven’t come together as expected and instead it seems mid-latitude blocking is more likely vs high latitude. 

My idea of a colder/blocked mid-2nd half of February looks dead in the water now. 

so does the rest of winter, dam October Fog Index, going to be proved right again

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

It’s not supposed to be different? It’s about clearer public messaging around severe weather. 

Rubbish, it’s supposed to ‘hype’ that we are getting stormier due to AGW…which we aren’t 

 

BFTP

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might just be delayed to early March.

Always March…heck of a month to come

 

BFTP

[Met4Cast]

14 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Rubbish, it’s supposed to ‘hype’ that we are getting stormier due to AGW…which we aren’t 

 

BFTP

Always March…heck of a month to come

 

BFTP

Err.. no, it’s not. If anything it better highlights how many storms we get each year. This season is a great example with 0 named storms. Would we even be talking about the lack of deep lows this winter without the above stat? I doubt it. 

Odd, verging on conspiracy theorist take from you there BFTP. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Met4Cast

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Rubbish, it’s supposed to ‘hype’ that we are getting stormier due to AGW…which we aren’t 

 

BFTP

Always March…heck of a month to come

 

BFTP

No it's really not. Even with the names people ignore and get into trouble. It's to target that.

[AltonMatthew]

32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might just be delayed to early March.

Hope not. Ready for Spring/Summer now! Lets sign off on this Winter...

[Polaris]

56 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

But no different to what used to be an ordinary winter storm. 

Absolutely. I remember the days when a wet and windy day was just that… a wet a windy day.

Now, due to social media and Hype, a low pressure system is given a name to label as a storm. Imagine the folk in the world that actually get proper storms, hurricanes and typhoons. 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Indeed. Much better system now thankfully as things evolve. Far easier to get messaging out of severe weather with naming & great for calling back severe weather too, i.e “ remember that storm in February 2020” vs “remember storm Dennis”. 

Can never remember which storm is which so just go by date generally… unless it’s worthy of note like Storm Emma for example.

[skifreak]

1 hour ago, Polaris said:

Absolutely. I remember the days when a wet and windy day was just that… a wet a windy day.

Now, due to social media and Hype, a low pressure system is given a name to label as a storm. Imagine the folk in the world that actually get proper storms, hurricanes and typhoons. 

So Storm Frank... you want to tell the people flooded out of large parts of Ballater,  that it wasn't a real storm? Just a wet and windy day that obliterated from existence a couple of hundred yards of the A93, left a bridge at Braemar unstable so that the only way in and out was over the 2200ft Cairnwell Pass which had to be kept open 24/7 through January and February? That the arches on the A90 Bridge of Dee went full bore for the first time in 488 years was just a damp winters day?

Just a wee breeze that Frank, a breeze that ripped a roof of a chairlift drive at Glencoe ski area with such force it smashed a hole in a building further up the mountain and knocked a ski lift tower out of alignment before disintegrating, maybe tell the owner of the car overturned in the carpark at 1200ft at Glencoe that Storm Frank wasn't actually real wind?

Some serious pish gets posted in this thread.  

[geordiekev]

Old skool postage stamps pretty much in agreement short term.

Thanks to earlier poster for the memories