Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Matty88]

Who else thinks all this talk of 'downwelling' and SSW propogation is getting a bit tiresome ... yes it could yield an easterly eventually but who really wants that at the onset of spring?!? I am craving warm weather and sun now  

Sadly Dec/Jan/Feb so far have not yielded more than a dusting for me but some very harsh frosts and even ice skating in the fens... it's felt a chilly ''vintage'' style winter in any case. 

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

42 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Envious of the Midlands & Northern England today, clear blue skies galore according to the satellite. Meanwhile in the "sunny" South East, its back to the miserable grey skies.

Yes, today is the fourth consecutive day of unbroken sunshine for the Midlands. Because I am such a generous person, I'd send you some if I could. 

[alexisj9]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

We're stuck in the same general pattern and have been for some time (bar the odd interruption)

This chart is basically the winter version of what happened in summer...Azores HP in control with ridge sheared off into Europe and a small LP trapped near Portugal (remember the heat pump?)...

The type of pattern that leads to a heat dome in summer.

It's really worrying just how robust and long lived this pattern has been.

We can only hope that this pattern can shift before summer because if not a lot of Europe will be in big trouble with dangerous levels of heat. The Med has barely had chance to cool off and any such spell again may be a degree or two more extreme this time around.

The SSW could be a blessing in this respect as it may serve to reshuffle the NH cards.

Very true.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, 78/79 said:

No rain, and feeling quite pleasant in the sunshine. 

Quite happy to be honest. 

 

Till this morning, that cold front is over me at the minute.

[MP-R]

It was dull first thing here but cleared quickly and we’re back to blue skies and sunshine again. Can’t complain.

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

It was dull first thing here but cleared quickly and we’re back to blue skies and sunshine again. Can’t complain.

Yep I think it's trying to clear up now, not fully yet, but some brightness from time to time now.

[KTtom]

Lovely here, clear blue skies, little wind and warmth off the sun... Back to grey cloud tomorrow as I've booked the day off! 

[lassie23]

There is a lot of sniffing going on in the MOD thread, have the models caught a cold or are they sniffing the coffee

[BlueHedgehog074]

With a good amount of sunny weather here recently, it’s as though March and April have kidnapped February and held it captive somewhere.

Now some very different weather conditions could easily pop up within the next 2 to 3 weeks, but I do wonder wether the models will be able to locate the missing month fairly soon before March and April finish off February for good!

[matt111]

Shame the days of clear blue skies has ended here with it returning to the dull nothingness we had all of last week. 

[johncam]

We only had dull drizzly nothingness 

 

[summer blizzard]

It's interesting looking at the archives for SSW impacts on our side of the hemisphere (.e. show up on the nomal greenland/europe centered chart)..

2013 - 2 days to form a Scandi Ridge (suspect we were already getting a cold spell here, not convinced the response can be that quick)

2018 - 2 days to impact our side of the hemisphere, 10 days to produce the Scandi ridge

2019 - 20 days to build a closed high to the north, Russian Ridge from the end of the month blown away 

2021 - 13 days to build a closed high to the north though a Russian ridge did attempt to form and then sunk, upper high over Greenland by day 18.

So realistically we can have quick response in the Arctic but to actually product a solid block over Greenland or Scandinavia it does look like 10-20 days. 

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 hours ago, matt111 said:

Shame the days of clear blue skies has ended here with it returning to the dull nothingness we had all of last week. 

Can hope it won’t turn out to be as cloudy/grey as it seems, otherwise it’s just the case of unplugging the sunshine shield again. Although I worry that the sunshine shield makers will have probably glued the plug in with extra strong superglue to make it harder to take out.

[matt111]

18 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Can hope it won’t turn out to be as cloudy/grey as it seems, otherwise it’s just the case of unplugging the sunshine shield again. Although I worry that the sunshine shield makers will have probably glued the plug in with extra strong superglue to make it harder to take out.

I think our snow shield has had that done to it. Can't find any way to turn it off  

[Metwatch]

 

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

32 minutes ago, matt111 said:

I think our snow shield has had that done to it. Can't find any way to turn it off  

What a shame  Who ever has done it shall have no snow (or what ever other type of weather they desire) until they sort it out!

[The Enforcer]

Almost guaranteed it seems:

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

 

 

Drought or washout - it's either one or the other these days. We don't get varied weather anymore.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

 

 

I do worry we're on course for severe water issues this summer.

[andreas]

Here in south London it's been the first winter since 2014/15 when we have had a proper cold snap in each of the winter months. That's a little underwhelming I must admit... 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I do worry we're on course for severe water issues this summer.

Yes me too. Massively!

[HellItsHot]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I do worry we're on course for severe water issues this summer.

Apologies if this has been asked and answered before, but is there anything about climate change that leads to weather patterns getting ‘locked in’ as anecdotally that’s what seems to be happening? 

Edited February 9, 2023 by HellItsHot

[Cheshire Freeze]

If anything it’s the dry spells that are getting locked in. We’ve sailed perilously close to problematic drought in both 2018 and 2022. If it continues then we’ll be on standpipes at some point within the next decade.

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If anything it’s the dry spells that are getting locked in. We’ve sailed perilously close to problematic drought in both 2018 and 2022. If it continues then we’ll be on standpipes at some point within the next decade.

No named storms either

[*Stormforce~beka*]

43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If anything it’s the dry spells that are getting locked in. We’ve sailed perilously close to problematic drought in both 2018 and 2022. If it continues then we’ll be on standpipes at some point within the next decade.

They need to sort something long term. It's not like we aren't surrounded by a large body of water or owt ...