Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

2018 feb/march was immense here in Wales - RED warnings from the meto which was unheard of for snow and cold and 10ft snow drifts - let's hope a repeat is on the way, models will show it shortly if it's coming - it does need special synoptics however - cold easterly feed with a lovely low moving up from the south or south west bumping into the cold like the storm we had then causing a massive European Alps type blizzard with that type of European continental snow that gets everywhere lol

You see, that how different things can be, here in 2018, it was cold but no snow till a low came up from the south day before Emma, and that was a freezing rain to snow event, it might have been Emma perhaps, next day it warmed up.

2021 I had snow on the ground for a week, with a top up day before things warmed up, plus the warm up was snow to rain, for a very little while.

[knocker]

The BFTE should have been put in the swear filter a while ago as the continuing thought of it is getting dangerously close to tipping those of a cold peruasion over the edge..........................they have been teetering for a while.

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

You see, that how different things can be, here in 2018, it was cold but no snow till a low came up from the south day before Emma, and that was a freezing rain to snow event, it might have been Emma perhaps, next day it warmed up.

2021 I had snow on the ground for a week, with a top up day before things warmed up, plus the warm up was snow to rain, for a very little while.

It was almost the exact opposite over here, H. 2018's event produced almost a foot of snow, as one blizzard after another came in off the North Sea; 2021's effort was rather tame in comparison.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Ed Stone

[Chris Smith]

Would it be accurate to say that recent weeks have been dominated by Bartlett Highs? The current iteration might be better described as a Euro High, but current charts show some adjustment this week, such that we end up with a broad high ridging from the Azores right across to the Balkans; which is a classic BH setup, is it not?

[Froze were the Days]

Still diddly squat in the dets at the moment...even the good ol' GFS garden path model not showing nowt, far too early the cries particularly from BFTP going for a very cold March

[Rich_T]

I havent got a clue where all of this is comming form, butm y news feeds are full of stuff like "Beast from the east set to return" "4 inches of snow ever hour" "could see whole towns cut off without power"

This is a link to one ust such story : https://www.independent.co.uk/weather/uk-weather-beast-from-east-snow-b2280593.html

[Stabilo19]

Take a shot every time someone mentions the Scottish ski industry... lol

It accounts for a measly ~0.01% of Scottish GDP, whereas severe winter weather can cause 10s if not 100s of millions of pounds worth of agricultural losses - especially during the spring.

As a keen gardener, I'm hoping we don't get any SSW-induced cold/snow over the next few weeks! We had a great snow event in December IMBY and the most frost hours for years, so I just want sunshine and warmth come March

[Summer8906]

Very, very dull today. Feels like we've moved back about four weeks into early January; the worst daytime light levels for quite some time.

[alexisj9]

49 minutes ago, Rich_T said:

I havent got a clue where all of this is comming form, butm y news feeds are full of stuff like "Beast from the east set to return" "4 inches of snow ever hour" "could see whole towns cut off without power"

This is a link to one ust such story : https://www.independent.co.uk/weather/uk-weather-beast-from-east-snow-b2280593.html

Trying to predict in advance what the SSW will do and sensationalising it. Personally I wish they would stop. They are misusing a little bit of knowledge, for click bait headlines.

Edited February 12, 2023 by alexisj9

[Mapantz]

3 hours ago, Paul White. said:

What a fabulous idea. It would then show that the majority of people want to read interesting balanced factual posts.

 

4 hours ago, Ruzzi said:

Sorry quickly off topic, but any chance we can add a "disagree" reaction for posts. 

That way the posts designed to evoke responses or be controversial will prevent less clogging responses (me included), and we can simply hit the disagree reaction and continue? 

It has been tried before, as well as other reactions. They got abused and caused more problems.

[Frosty.]

Hey guys, I’m frankly disgusted by this winter, largely it’s been disgusting for coldies!..but now I’m looking for signs of hope, March is often colder than the winter months of Dec Jan Feb..pathetic innit!.. but a fact!!!! ..anyway, fingers crossed this much trumpeted   SSW will salvage something from the mangled wreckage of winter 22 / 23! .. in early spring!     

 

[Rob 79812010]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hey guys, I’m frankly disgusted by this winter, largely it’s been disgusting for coldies!..but now I’m looking for signs of hope, March is often colder than the winter months of Dec Jan Feb..pathetic innit!.. but a fact!!!! ..anyway, fingers crossed this much trumpeted   SSW will salvage something from the mangled wreckage of winter 22 / 23! .. in early spring!     

 

December was a cold month though!! Included a 7 day spell of 5 below average

[MP-R]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hey guys, I’m frankly disgusted by this winter, largely it’s been disgusting for coldies!..but now I’m looking for signs of hope, March is often colder than the winter months of Dec Jan Feb..pathetic innit!.. but a fact!!!! ..anyway, fingers crossed this much trumpeted   SSW will salvage something from the mangled wreckage of winter 22 / 23! .. in early spring!     

 

Uhhhh… no it isn’t. It is occasionally if it is exceptionally cold or the winter months are exceptionally mild… but generally this is a misleading comment.

As you were.

[SunSean]

Just for fun, i had a look at Heathrow data from 2006 up til now. 15 degrees plus has been reached for January just 2 times out of 558 days and February, only 15 times out of 491 days so far (8 of those in one month- Feb 2019). Surprised to see its such a low amount!

[damianslaw]

Stil over 2 weeks to go, but looking at the forseeable output, gosh this could end up being the most quiet February ever, there is barely anything happening weatherwise!

[Troubleatmill]

42 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Uhhhh… no it isn’t. It is occasionally if it is exceptionally cold or the winter months are exceptionally mild… but generally this is a misleading comment.

As you were.

Although true, seasonal lag of the ocean temps can mean that polar maritime air flows in March can be less marginal for snow than in December, even taking the stronger sun into account (mostly useless though as the sun will make sure it doesn't hang about long)

[Wingman Blue]

Been following this site now for over five years. Mods, please forgive this chart-free post but just wish to show how cold the evening before BFTE at 180m ASL was just north of Banbury.

[Mariescb]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Hey guys, I’m frankly disgusted by this winter, largely it’s been disgusting for coldies!..but now I’m looking for signs of hope, March is often colder than the winter months of Dec Jan Feb..pathetic innit!.. but a fact!!!! ..anyway, fingers crossed this much trumpeted   SSW will salvage something from the mangled wreckage of winter 22 / 23! .. in early spring!     

 

So a milder winter in the face of crippling heating bills is disgusting? Are you actually for real! 

It's one thing to have preferences and to love studying about the weather and trying to unpick all its complexities but some perspective has to be applied, even in a model forum.

[Eagle Eye]

Im certainly not a moderator but calm down people,you'd have thought no SSW is occuring and we're in a zonal period. We got the SSW we wanted now is time for normal and non heated discussion about the effects of if and bear in mind there is so much conflicting information on SSW's that a lot of opinions are very valid and each SSW is different in the first place.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Ruzzi]

11 minutes ago, Mariescb said:

So a milder winter in the face of crippling heating bills is disgusting? Are you actually for real! 

It's one thing to have preferences and to love studying about the weather and trying to unpick all its complexities but some perspective has to be applied, even in a model forum.

Sorry but it's a weather forum, not a cost of living political forum. 

Absolutely nothing wrong with wanting severe weather in a weather forum. 

Sure it's a bonus for heating bills if the weather remains on the milder side but you can't judge a post or member in a weather forum for wanting some severe weather. 

Anyway, Still a good few days before the SSW is achieved, model outputs are not to be trusted, volatility will be rife. It's intriguing to see how the models may change between now and 10 days time. Also, with the GFS "upgrade", it'll be interesting to see how it deals with things post SSW 

[Polaris]

On 06/02/2023 at 00:59, skifreak said:

So Storm Frank... you want to tell the people flooded out of large parts of Ballater,  that it wasn't a real storm? Just a wet and windy day that obliterated from existence a couple of hundred yards of the A93, left a bridge at Braemar unstable so that the only way in and out was over the 2200ft Cairnwell Pass which had to be kept open 24/7 through January and February? That the arches on the A90 Bridge of Dee went full bore for the first time in 488 years was just a damp winters day?

Just a wee breeze that Frank, a breeze that ripped a roof of a chairlift drive at Glencoe ski area with such force it smashed a hole in a building further up the mountain and knocked a ski lift tower out of alignment before disintegrating, maybe tell the owner of the car overturned in the carpark at 1200ft at Glencoe that Storm Frank wasn't actually real wind?

Some serious pish gets posted in this thread.  

Oh give over. 
 

The 90s/ early 00s had countless flooded out areas without scaremongering names. 
you seem to have forgotten. 
Kensington severe floods of 2007 and Surrey homes ambushed in 2008. 
The named storms (low pressure systems) from the Atlantic compared to back in the day when it was just a low pressure system. 
Would love to bring back the good ole days of a wet and windy day without naming of a low pressure system off the Atlantic into an alphabetical storm name. Whilst other parts of the world suffer hurricanes and cyclones. 

On 06/02/2023 at 00:59, skifreak said:

So Storm Frank... you want to tell the people flooded out of large parts of Ballater,  that it wasn't a real storm? Just a wet and windy day that obliterated from existence a couple of hundred yards of the A93, left a bridge at Braemar unstable so that the only way in and out was over the 2200ft Cairnwell Pass which had to be kept open 24/7 through January and February? That the arches on the A90 Bridge of Dee went full bore for the first time in 488 years was just a damp winters day?

Just a wee breeze that Frank, a breeze that ripped a roof of a chairlift drive at Glencoe ski area with such force it smashed a hole in a building further up the mountain and knocked a ski lift tower out of alignment before disintegrating, maybe tell the owner of the car overturned in the carpark at 1200ft at Glencoe that Storm Frank wasn't actually real wind?

Some serious pish gets posted in this thread.  

Oh give over. 
 

The 90s/ early 00s had countless flooded out areas without scaremongering names. 
you seem to have forgotten. 
Kensington severe floods of 2007 and Surrey homes ambushed in 2008. 
The named storms (low pressure systems) from the Atlantic compared to back in the day when it was just a low pressure system. 
Would love to bring back the good ole days of a wet and windy day without naming of a low pressure system off the Atlantic into an alphabetical storm name. Whilst other parts of the world suffer hurricanes and cyclones. 

On 06/02/2023 at 00:59, skifreak said:

So Storm Frank... you want to tell the people flooded out of large parts of Ballater,  that it wasn't a real storm? Just a wet and windy day that obliterated from existence a couple of hundred yards of the A93, left a bridge at Braemar unstable so that the only way in and out was over the 2200ft Cairnwell Pass which had to be kept open 24/7 through January and February? That the arches on the A90 Bridge of Dee went full bore for the first time in 488 years was just a damp winters day?

Just a wee breeze that Frank, a breeze that ripped a roof of a chairlift drive at Glencoe ski area with such force it smashed a hole in a building further up the mountain and knocked a ski lift tower out of alignment before disintegrating, maybe tell the owner of the car overturned in the carpark at 1200ft at Glencoe that Storm Frank wasn't actually real wind?

Some serious pish gets posted in this thread.  

Oh give over. 
 

The 90s/ early 00s had countless flooded out areas without scaremongering names. 
you seem to have forgotten. 
Kensington severe floods of 2007 and Surrey homes ambushed in 2008. 
The named storms (low pressure systems) from the Atlantic compared to back in the day when it was just a low pressure system. 
Would love to bring back the good ole days of a wet and windy day without naming of a low pressure system off the Atlantic into an alphabetical storm name. Whilst other parts of the world suffer hurricanes and cyclones. 

On 06/02/2023 at 00:59, skifreak said:

So Storm Frank... you want to tell the people flooded out of large parts of Ballater,  that it wasn't a real storm? Just a wet and windy day that obliterated from existence a couple of hundred yards of the A93, left a bridge at Braemar unstable so that the only way in and out was over the 2200ft Cairnwell Pass which had to be kept open 24/7 through January and February? That the arches on the A90 Bridge of Dee went full bore for the first time in 488 years was just a damp winters day?

Just a wee breeze that Frank, a breeze that ripped a roof of a chairlift drive at Glencoe ski area with such force it smashed a hole in a building further up the mountain and knocked a ski lift tower out of alignment before disintegrating, maybe tell the owner of the car overturned in the carpark at 1200ft at Glencoe that Storm Frank wasn't actually real wind?

Some serious pish gets posted in this thread.  

Oh give over. 
 

The 90s/ early 00s had countless flooded out areas without scaremongering names. 
you seem to have forgotten. 
Kensington severe floods of 2007 and Surrey homes ambushed in 2008. 
The named storms (low pressure systems) from the Atlantic compared to back in the day when it was just a low pressure system. 
Would love to bring back the good ole days of a wet and windy day without naming of a low pressure system off the Atlantic into an alphabetical storm name. Whilst other parts of the world suffer hurricanes and cyclones. 

[matt111]

16 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Sorry but it's a weather forum, not a cost of living political forum. 

Absolutely nothing wrong with wanting severe weather in a weather forum. 

Sure it's a bonus for heating bills if the weather remains on the milder side but you can't judge a post or member in a weather forum for wanting some severe weather. 

Anyway, Still a good few days before the SSW is achieved, model outputs are not to be trusted, volatility will be rife. It's intriguing to see how the models may change between now and 10 days time. Also, with the GFS "upgrade", it'll be interesting to see how it deals with things post SSW 

Indeed, while everyone has their own preferences I don't think a weather forum is the place to bemoan people who do want something colder no matter what the situation away from here is, we're all here to share a passion for the weather without worrying about what's going on away from it. At the end of the day it's not like anyone here has any control what happens. 

Speaking of weather, it looks like today was the last of this run of dull days here before the sun comes back tomorrow. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

I think we get enough cold weather for 5 months every year. It's always cold. It's just the degree of cold. Nothing wrong with a burst of early spring warmth either. 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Beano said:

Although true, seasonal lag of the ocean temps can mean that polar maritime air flows in March can be less marginal for snow than in December, even taking the stronger sun into account (mostly useless though as the sun will make sure it doesn't hang about long)

Reason why April brings snowfall is a combination of the seasonal arctic ocean/n atlantic SST's lag, these are very cold still in April, colder than now often, northerlies can thus bring uppers every bit as cold as in Jan/Feb, indeed often are colder. Difference is air temps will quickly rise due to the solar energy input, northerlies often bring clean clearn sunny air. Coldest temps will be brief, snow cover quickly melts through the day. Late Feb/Early March just about early enough to prevent much snow melt during the day, by mid March become very difficult to sustain an even cover away from sheltered spots.

Edited February 12, 2023 by damianslaw

[snowray]

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reason why April brings snowfall is a combination of the seasonal arctic ocean/n atlantic SST's lag, these are very cold still in April, colder than now often, northerlies can thus bring uppers every bit as cold as in Jan/Feb, indeed often are colder. Difference is air temps will quickly rise due to the solar energy input, northerlies often bring clean clearn sunny air. Coldest temps will be brief, snow cover quickly melts through the day. Late Feb/Early March just about early enough to prevent much snow melt during the day, by mid March become very difficult to sustain an even cover away from sheltered spots.

Ideally from mid March and April, snow late in the day, ideally early evening, heavier the better, followed by a frost, then you have until the following morning of Winter wonderland at your disposal.