Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Nick F]

Low pressure seems to get stuck for an eternity over the North Sea on the 18z, which is not such a bad thing, as it will continue to feed cold air  in from the east or northeast.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Nick F

[sorepaw1]

Very impressive 18z GFS a T+87 hrs

Wednesday I wouldn't rule out snow showers for London and the

South East Wednesday night .

Trying not to come across as ramping but it's getting impossible not to mention snow in posts with what's showing .

[Allseasons-Si]

Tell you what,...there is some bizzare out of the norn models going off with this cold snap/spell and i am enjoying the ride and everyones imput,it makes for great viewing and converstaions

havin a buzz moment.

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Blimey. Poor fishies.

Don't want that low to stay round and stagnant. We need it to slide eastwards as fast as possible.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

That bullseye low may be a little overdone but perhaps with that extra injection of cold uppers from the NE giving it that extra kick. Heaven forbid another repeat of 2018 when we really whipped up a storm called Emma largely due too all that frigid air moving across the Atlantic. This could play out in a similar way if all goes accordingly..I think it was the SW of Ireland that took the brunt back then..who knows where if we end up in a similar position.. a very interesting development though which needs to be kept an eye on over the next few days. It could remain South of us...but a little further North and we would need the farmers plough to get out.

[tight isobar]

After viewing today’s cross outs.. I’m starting to expect government contingency planning , And overall stepping in to occur!! - it’s getting quite excessive now in all forms of notable winter weather... And after some quite incredible prospects the closing run of the day @18z gfs continues those exactions.. we are falling into quite uncharted territory you’d have to “perhaps “ start wondering Amazing possibilities!!!   

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

I can't say I had December hurricane on my UK tick list but the 18z sees it fit to develop one so there we go.

Very odd run this, it's taken the usual bowling ball low bias and tripled it. I think given how unlikely/realistic it is we should probably just view this run as a bit of fun and not worry too much re: broader detail. 

Pattern around the UK is largely the same, trough dropping through/east of the UK delivering colder air/snow risks.

Yes, I agree, that bowling ball is blowing away the whole setup and looks wrong.  I’m not saying the feature isn’t there, it is, but you could see on the ECM clusters, very uncertain as to depth, and of course GFS always likely to blow it up more.  For the bin after T168.

[IDO]

None of us could have predicted the mega-storm in the Atlantic, and without it, this would all be plain saying, with long term cold and a blocked pattern. The storm throws a spanner in the works, at the very least for how it will mix with the trough? But clearly we would have preferred this to not exist. As spoilers come this may be a biggie.

D7: 

All bets off until that storm is nailed down, as that, unbelievably will be the driver against the hard-earned established block.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

None of us could have predicted the mega-storm in the Atlantic, and without it, this would all be plain saying, with long term cold and a blocked pattern. The storm throws a spanner in the works, at the very least for how it will mix with the trough? But clearly we would have preferred this to not exist. As spoilers come this may be a biggie.

D7: 

All bets off until that storm is nailed down, as that, unbelievably will be the driver against the hard-earned established block.

Agree although looks disrupty on this run.

[Met4Cast]

In fairness to the GFS it has somehow managed to send it east instead of NE and has it sliding into Europe

One of the strangest runs I think i've ever seen lmao

[IDO]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Agree although looks disrupty on this run.

Yes, much too early to be running to conclusions, just could have done with it being just a normal low! ECM shows that it can resolve okay.

[Howie]

Just shows our luck in the Uk, of all the things to scupper a cold spell a bloody tropical storm was not what I had in mind. Ridiculous 

[Eagle Eye]

550 MB, feel very sorry for the fishes.

In a bit more seriousness it's just so tight of a system that the numbers are being blocked by one another and the pressure lines but I very little idea how it's sustaining itself in a highly sheared (ish) environment.

[CSC]

Just now, Howie said:

Just shows our luck in the Uk, of all the things to scupper a cold spell a bloody tropical storm was not what I had in mind. Ridiculous 

Don't worry! It is just one run, and it is the pub run after all. I would take it with a grain of salt this tropical storm.

[Ben_]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

That bullseye low may be a little overdone but perhaps with that extra injection of cold uppers from the NE giving it that extra kick. Heaven forbid another repeat of 2018 when we really whipped up a storm called Emma largely due too all that frigid air moving across the Atlantic. This could play out in a similar way if all goes accordingly..I think it was the SW of Ireland that took the brunt back then..who knows where if we end up in a similar position.. a very interesting development though which needs to be kept an eye on over the next few days. It could remain South of us...but a little further North and we would need the farmers plough to get out.

Dorset took a pasting from that. Big snow drifts followed by freezing rain. 

I couldn't get off of Portland for two days due to the ice.

[Derecho]

Is there scope for Wednesday's northerly to be even colder?

P10

[Allseasons-Si]

It's taking the ECM control route to the south of the UK and further south than the 12z gfs.

 

 

 

[Bats32]

Quite astounded by this.

[Snowy L]

This run is awful, big East Euro high building that has completely cut the link between Scandi Lows and Asian lobe of vortex. Hopefully pub run on a mad one.

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

550 MB, feel very sorry for the fishes.

In a bit more seriousness it's just so tight of a system that the numbers are being blocked by one another and the pressure lines but I very little idea how it's sustaining itself in a highly sheared (ish) environment.

Luckily it’s only a NWP thing and doesn’t exist. 

[frosty ground]

1070 Fake Greenland high by day 10

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's taking the ECM control route to the south of the UK and further south than the 12z gfs.

 

 

 

Yep. The insane looking hurricane type storm dissipates rapidly on approach and so may not end the cold spell anyway.

Edited December 3, 2022 by MattStoke

[Met4Cast]

GFS mean shifts the trigger trough eastwards again, that's been the trend for the last few runs now.

This would allow as @Quicksilver1989 has shown above as colder northerly.

[Notty]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Yep. The insane looking hurricane type storm dissipates rapidly on approach and so may not even the cold spell anyway.

The old // run has had its first taste of Stella and is a little squiffy

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

1070 Fake Greenland high by day 10

It's not fake,...it's the Greenland plateau that causes this.

hope that helps

Edited December 3, 2022 by Allseasons-si