Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[CSC]

Looks to me this 18z is a bit overdone. It happens too fast, and the positioning seems wrong. Pub run will create pub related outcomes!

[Guest]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

The GFS has been performing terribly of late coming in 4th place behind ECM, UKMO & GEM. 

At least the 18z seems consistent with the 12z, that's more than we've been able to say for a while.

This would be the 'new' GFS?

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Very snowy run this, with more of an easterly, also the tropical low way further south, could be an epic

I was thinking more north and every bit as threatening to us

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is lovely at 126 and has a resemblance of one of these...

Just so long as it all doesn’t suddenly turn green, Si!

I think, given the ECM earlier, and the way UKMO looked, we may get cross model agreement by tomorrow that the NE trough may stay intact and not cut-off, which would be quite a turnaround.  Which takes some of the fail options out of the equation in my view.  Massive upgrades in today’s model runs.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Mike Poole

[MattStoke]

Blimey. Poor fishies.

[Howie]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Blimey. Poor fishies.

This is getting a bit ridiculous now, I'm really scratching my head as to how this is even possible 

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

This is getting a bit ridiculous now, I'm really scratching my head as to how this is even possible 

I would say… bring it on. Let’s get some once in a lifetime snowfall.

[Bats32]

That "hurricane" is absurd!

[CSC]

Saturday 10th at 00:00 hours. GFS vs MET Office

 

 

 

The difference is incredible. Met Office has far colder temperatures!

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

This is getting a bit ridiculous now, I'm really scratching my head as to how this is even possible 

I don't think it will be. The amount of tropical storms that get predicted in hostile environments that don't form is high. If it was October or September I think it would be possible but not in December.

Can't rule it out of course but very dubious.

[The Forecaster]

1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

That "hurricane" is absurd!

This hurricane ? 
 

[Howie]

Would anyone a bit more knowledgeable than me be able to explain how a tropical storm is forming in what seems to be extremely unfavourable conditions for one to form? I've seen tropical storms completely collapse in the tropics with morw favourable conditions than this. It's just really baffling me

[Notty]

The storm can’t spin up out of nowhere. It must be seeding somewhere, usually off the West coast of Africa. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Notty
Grammar

[Ali1977]

T102 - this front providing the snow if by far from resolved - it’s coming but who gets what and how much is just a guess. This run the North of England looks primed - by tomorrow this could well be 200 miles diff 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I don't think it will be. The amount of tropical storms that get predicted in hostile environments that don't form is high. If it was October or September I think it would be possible but not in December.

Can't rule it out of course but very dubious.

Could it be due to warmer than normal SST's?

[lamppost watcher]

Looks better amplification here at t162 compared to 12z

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I don't think it will be. The amount of tropical storms that get predicted in hostile environments that don't form is high. If it was October or September I think it would be possible but not in December.

Can't rule it out of course but very dubious.

Yeah it just defies meteorological logic by all means imo

[sheikhy]

Each of the last 3 runs has disrupted that azores low more and more to the south into france!!!

[Ali1977]

Imagine a slider with a hurricane/severe storm  - blizzard central 

[andy989]

Can definitely feel the chill in the air now. I’m liking the cross model agreement in the broader scale, the details of any snow/depth of cold won’t be known until the cold is here. 
 

Meanwhile is snowing heavily in the Scottish ski resorts

 

 

[Cleeve Hill]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

This is getting a bit ridiculous now, I'm really scratching my head as to how this is even possible 

Yes. There’s nothing on the National Hurricane Centre website showing this tropical development in the Atlantic. Even though it’s now outside Hurricane season they would include this in their graphics. Hmm 

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Could it be due to warmer than normal SST's?

SSTs are warmer then normal but it is also quite far north. If it did form it would be extremely unusual. Saying that though we did have Hurricane Alex in January 2016.

[jam]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I don't think it will be. The amount of tropical storms that get predicted in hostile environments that don't form is high. If it was October or September I think it would be possible but not in December.

Can't rule it out of course but very dubious.

very true but .. readings go in.. and numbers / charts come out .. 

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Imagine a slider with a hurricane/severe storm  - blizzard central 

All under 10 days away.

[Met4Cast]

I can't say I had December hurricane on my UK tick list but the 18z sees it fit to develop one so there we go.

Very odd run this, it's taken the usual bowling ball low bias and tripled it. I think given how unlikely/realistic it is we should probably just view this run as a bit of fun and not worry too much re: broader detail. 

Pattern around the UK is largely the same, trough dropping through/east of the UK delivering colder air/snow risks.