Northwest Weather Discussion

[Joe Bloggs]

I now have a heavy snow symbol for tomorrow night on the MetO app 

[itsnowjoke]

Nothing here other than glistening pavements etc slippy underfoot too very seasonal

[Miamay]

Cloudy skies here. Surprised no gritters are out

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Tomorrow night I reckon heavy hail/graupel/ice pellet showers west of M6. Snow east of M6 or above 100 m.

Lightning risk at the coast.
Icy surfaces within 10 miles of the coast or above 50 m.

Yep it just looks to warm for any snow in our region apart from higher ground, its why it was dissapointing too see the northerly started to get more moderated with each run but yet still got hyped up by certain members. Thicknesses in this northerly are also poor really, its really not your classic convective northerly. 

The main features of this cold spell will be the hard frosts and lack of wind chill and a lack of snow to an extent also. 

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yep it just looks to warm for any snow in our region apart from higher ground, its why it was dissapointing too see the northerly started to get more moderated with each run but yet still got hyped up by certain members. Thicknesses in this northerly are also poor really, its really not your classic convective northerly. 

The main features of this cold spell will be the hard frosts and lack of wind chill and a lack of snow to an extent also. 

And yet 2m temperatures have actually been lower than forecast at times. 

[Mark_p]

It's been quite interesting that the spell so far has felt like we're more under a big high pressure system. It's not been so much of a northerly down to the meandering areas of 'low' pressure putting us in this 'inbetween' state. I have loved the sunny, crisp weather (I also love snow) but all of us in lower elevation and coastal areas of the region do need to brace ourselves for the great enemy tomorrow - cold rain. If we get some sustained streamers after dark then maybe we can see some snow but I'm bracing myself for the worst after 2 days of weather I personally really enjoy. 

[cheshire snow]

Well another snow shower is just passing through Manchester airport as I type at an elevation of 78m so sorry  cannot agree its to warm.

Crazy to use the word warm when you work on the Airfield three layers on and its baltic.

[damianslaw]

Oddly we have no frost at present, current temp 0.7 degrees. I left Kendal a couple of hours ago and everything was frosted up - not sure why, there is a bit of a breeze, and possible patchy cloud cover... all very strange.

Nothing fell from the sky today, may see some wintriness overnight tomorrow into Saturday. Lovely blue sky cold day ahead.

[Geordiesnow]

7 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

And yet 2m temperatures have actually been lower than forecast at times. 

Have they? Maybe they have but low to mid single digits have been predicted across the UK and that is what we have been seeing? 

Saturdays forecast is interesting because if there is PPN then its likely to turn to snow up here first as its South Cumbria and North Lancs which gets the flow off the sea cut off very early on Saturday so if there is PPN around it might turn to snow due to no winds and evaporative cooling. If the uppers were - 8, I would be getting my hopes up but - 5 and - 6 then I'm not so sure. Been more rain reports than snow reports on the east coast today with similar uppers and winds off shore. 

[Chris.R]

Temp dropping again, -0.3.

it's not that it's too warm but we all know that once that maritime layer starts to come in from the sea and the wind backs westerly any surface inversions are going to be quickly mixed out and you are relying on evaporative cooling which I admit will be a big factor.
There may be a narrow strip at the front edge of the maritime layer that sees some inversion remain and has majority ice pellets.

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Have they? Maybe they have but low to mid single digits have been predicted across the UK and that is what we have been seeing? 

Saturdays forecast is interesting because if there is PPN then its likely to turn to snow up here first as its South Cumbria and North Lancs which gets the flow off the sea cut off very early on Saturday so if there is PPN around it might turn to snow due to no winds and evaporative cooling. If the uppers were - 8, I would be getting my hopes up but - 5 and - 6 then I'm not so sure. Been more rain reports than snow reports on the east coast today with similar uppers and winds off shore. 

I have been keeping an eye on the temps at Manchester Airport (my most local official station) and yes they have been colder than forecast.  The frosts have been harsher and have kicked in earlier than forecast. Last night it was -5C at Rostherne as early as 10pm I think. On Tuesday night only a slight frost was predicted but it was comfortably -3C or so. 

I’m not saying this is a spectacular cold spell though, it feels like a cold anticyclone so far. 
 

Will be interesting to see if we get any snow here tomorrow night. 

[Joe Bloggs]

Looking at the radar, some fairly organised precipitation with moderate echoes approaching the Peak District, heads up Buxton, maybe Macclesfield in an hour or two? 

[Rush2019]

Temp back up to -1C, will these pink echoes make it over to Peak District, I wonder.

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I have been keeping an eye on the temps at Manchester Airport (my most local official station) and yes they have been colder than forecast.  The frosts have been harsher and have kicked in earlier than forecast. Last night it was -5C at Rostherne as early as 10pm I think. On Tuesday night only a slight frost was predicted but it was comfortably -3C or so. 

I’m not saying this is a spectacular cold spell though, it feels like a cold anticyclone so far. 
 

Will be interesting to see if we get any snow here tomorrow night. 

Pretty sure of it

Echoes of 5th Jan 2010 tomorrow night

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Pretty sure of it

Echoes of 5th Jan 2010 tomorrow night

Kasim you absolute tease! Surely not!!! 

1 minute ago, Rush2112 said:

Temp back up to -1C, will these pink echoes make it over to Peak District, I wonder.

They are intensifying in the last few frames. 

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Kasim you absolute tease! Surely not!!! 

Not teasing mate my assessment is that slow moving heavy snow showers may produce ,>10cm locally in a narrow band somewhere between mcr and the coast

Pretty sure this place will be on fire tomorrow night

HARMONIE

Classic setup incoming

Not 100% ofcourse

Edited December 8, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Not teasing mate my assessment is that slow moving heavy snow showers may produce ,>10cm locally in a narrow band somewhere between mcr and the coast

Pretty sure this place will be on fire tomorrow night

That seems to contradict most mainstream forecasts. I will be VERY impressed if you have this correct. Just like @Chris.R’s mega snow prediction for Storm Christoph!

5th Jan 2010 was probably the most extreme snow event in living memory for Manchester so would have to be very severe to come even close to that. 

Always enjoy reading your posts , thanks for providing your assessment  

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

That seems to contradict most mainstream forecasts. I will be VERY impressed if you have this correct. Just like @Chris.R’s mega snow prediction for Storm Christoph!

5th Jan 2010 was probably the most extreme snow event in living memory for Manchester so would have to be very severe to come even close to that. 

Always enjoy reading your posts , thanks for providing your assessment  

the ingredients are there for a real corker of a streamer on Saturday morning

im not as invested in weather as i was 2 years ago - but still love to make snow predictions

[weatherobsuk]

Oooh a bit of intensification with the PPN inbound, lake-effect perhaps with Ladybower/Woodhead res enhancing the DPs.

[raul_sbd]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not teasing mate my assessment is that slow moving heavy snow showers may produce ,>10cm locally in a narrow band somewhere between mcr and the coast

Pretty sure this place will be on fire tomorrow night

HARMONIE

Classic setup incoming

Not 100% ofcourse

What about east of Manchester @Kasim Awan around Glossop Buxton area?

[Joe Snow]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not teasing mate my assessment is that slow moving heavy snow showers may produce ,>10cm locally in a narrow band somewhere between mcr and the coast

Pretty sure this place will be on fire tomorrow night

HARMONIE

Classic setup incoming

Very interesting developments!  
 

You maybe right you know - 5th Jan 2010 was picked up only a few hrs ahead of impact & when snow had started to fall. 

5th Jan 2010 brought a ft of snow to MCR City Centre/ N Cheshire 
 

S Cheshire had about 7-10cm’s so are you saying we’ll see similar tomorrow night surely not?!  
 

 

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

That seems to contradict most mainstream forecasts. I will be VERY impressed if you have this correct. Just like @Chris.R’s mega snow prediction for Storm Christoph!

5th Jan 2010 was probably the most extreme snow event in living memory for Manchester so would have to be very severe to come even close to that. 

Always enjoy reading your posts , thanks for providing your assessment  

what we saying about a 7th Jan 2010, would be great to see lows like that again

[Scuba steve]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not teasing mate my assessment is that slow moving heavy snow showers may produce ,>10cm locally in a narrow band somewhere between mcr and the coast

Pretty sure this place will be on fire tomorrow night

HARMONIE

Classic setup incoming

Not 100% ofcourse

Interesting that morecambe bay is in the top band  I would say it will run further south a gut feeling in these set ups 

[raul_sbd]

Snow in Glossop from the little throw passing over the penines

[Snowy L]

23 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not teasing mate my assessment is that slow moving heavy snow showers may produce ,>10cm locally in a narrow band somewhere between mcr and the coast

Pretty sure this place will be on fire tomorrow night

HARMONIE

Classic setup incoming

Not 100% ofcourse

Chances of that moving inland as something more organised? Does happen with showers rarely.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Snowy L