Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Mike Poole]

GEFS at T168, and the Atlantic ridge ahead of the problematic low has some traction on these.  I think this option is the most likely to prolong the cold, with the Scandi high option a fallback position, and I think while the background signal for blocking is still there, building at least a wedge under which the low will eventually slide, keeping the cold in place, is quite a likely outcome.

[LRD]

Why is this GFS run taking so long to get out?

FI is going to be minging (for cold) but there are signs in that run that mild is not inevitable

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Why is this GFS run taking so long to get out?

FI is going to be minging (for cold) but there are signs in that run that mild is not inevitable

It's currently on strike , so I been reading some of the comments on the model discussion, as things look by the end of next week less cold air/milder air will be moving onto the UK?

But would a Atlantic ridge/high pressure or wedges be able to delay that?

[LRD]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's currently on strike , so I been reading some of the comments on the model discussion, as things look by the end of next week less cold air/milder air will be moving onto the UK?

But would a Atlantic ridge/high pressure or wedges be able to delay that?

Ha!

Milder or less cold weather looks like it's been put back (albeit only slightly) again to the 18th into the 19th. Let's see if that trend of delaying the mild carries on over the weekend and with this evening's ECM

Edited December 9, 2022 by LRD

[BlueHedgehog074]

Out to 132 hours at the moment, but find it amusing the way all the circled cut-off Lows are organised on the 12Z JMA. Like some kind of choo choo train or parade  

[Ali1977]

Colder direct northerly at T120 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Out to 132 hours at the moment, but find it amusing the way all the circled cut-off Lows are organised on the 12Z JMA. Like some kind of choo choo train or parade  

Well if that happens looks like we are safe lol, but it looks weird so probably wrong, too organised, no mess lol

[northwestsnow]

EC 120

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 v 0z T132:

Signal for that Atlantic ridge ahead of the low is there, maybe slightly less than 0z. Greenland heights a little stronger.

Meanwhile, the UK slider is affected by the ridge, tipping it up, maybe to the extent of bringing snow further north into the UK, let’s see.

[geordiekev]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Out to 132 hours at the moment, but find it amusing the way all the circled cut-off Lows are organised on the 12Z JMA. Like some kind of choo choo train or parade  

Perhaps it's just a big speech bubble with WTA just off screen, as they find themselves about 20⁰S off course

[northwestsnow]

Surely there will be instability in that Northerly flow.

Seriously cold air dropping across the UK over warmish seas 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

While everyone is scratching heads and losing there patience with GEM..I think the control as other ideas further on!

This ain't a done deal and there ain't no fat lady singing here...in fact there ain't a lady here fullstop. But that's for another type of forum if ya get me drift.

Edited December 9, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[MJB]

Interesting in the run up to Xmas 

[Ali1977]

Well entrenched cold at T144, looking like the breakdown still on its way though. Let’s hope for some surprise snow 

[geordiekev]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

While everyone is scratching heads and losing there patience with GEM..I think the control as other ideas further on!

This ain't a done deal and there ain't no fat lady singing here...infact there ain't a lady here fullstop. Bit that's for another type of forum if ya get me drift.

Now that I would bank. As our existing block has proved, troughs from the Arctic are quite dry. Give me a block with lows spawned from Canada & travelling up & over any day. More oomph & more chance of decent Easterly

[nick sussex]

We really need those two lows one in the USA and one in Canada to phase like in the UKMO at day 7.

Heights need a nudge into the Atlantic to help suppress that low exiting Newfoundland . It’s this which can cause a phase calamity with lower heights dropping sw from Iceland later on.

[Battleground Snow]

Quite a difference in the Atlantic sector there.

FI 144

[ANYWEATHER]

Out to the middle of next week, looks like a bit of fine tuning as regards milder weather bumping into thr cold air in the south.....lots to be resolved before then , no point worrying about any model output after....

[Johnp]

Very interesting ecm day 7. 
It’s not over yet

[Derecho]

Interesting EC at T168, another northerly after the brief ridge of high pressure?

Get the feeling an OP run will do a left field turn and get some excitement going in the MOD thread again in the next few days. Lots of uncertainty.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, V for Very Cold said:

Better not do! I’m off to Gatwick 

See you there im off flying to Cork from there myself on that Sunday morning  

Edited December 9, 2022 by Kentspur

[nick sussex]

No phasing but enough encroachment . We should have a better day 8 as the ECM looks better upstream than this morning .

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Very interesting ecm day 7. 
It’s not over yet

Those heights in sw Greenland just need a little nudge se at day 8 to stop phasing .

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I quite like day 7 on ECM..but what really takes me fancy is the fact the PV is starting to resemble streaky bacon. We ain't gonna need much fine tuning for this cold snap to go on and on..all cold snaps will show signs of breaking down on a regular basis in th UK...but that's not to say they will. I think that GEM op run was a little crazy and tbh the control run is just as likely.

 

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No phasing but enough encroachment . We should have a better day 8 as the ECM looks better upstream than this morning .

Thanks Nick for explaining as the run comes out , very helpful .

[Ali1977]

Whoop , get in. This will be a nice twist