Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[pages]

18z  looking alright for Kent and south Essex early hours of monday

[sheikhy]

And now gfs control looks better as well and gives a snowstorm for england at 138 hours!!absolute chaos this evening but in a good way for us coldies!!!

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And now gfs control looks better as well and gives a snowstorm for england at 138 hours!!absolute chaos this evening but in a good way for us coldies!!!

Something weird is happening, all of a sudden the day 4-7 period is looking increasingly uncertain!

[The Enforcer]

Here's another T+120 comparison - wedgewatch:

GFS 18z

ECMWF 12z

UKMO 12z

JMA 12z

ICON-EU 18z

GEM 12z

NAVGEM 12z

[seaside boy]

Would I be right in saying it's my Christmas jumper into the bin.....and shorts on ???

[seaside boy]

Just now, Johnp said:

Depends if you celebrate Xmas on the 22nd

I just got fed up waiting for the rest to upload...but  I thing it's all going to be the same.....make the most of this week

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, seaside boy said:

Would I be right in saying it's my Christmas jumper into the bin.....and shorts on ???

Oh  just back from pub after match and thought promising until I got to this post and now flat double flat

6 minutes ago, seaside boy said:

Would I be right in saying it's my Christmas jumper into the bin.....and shorts on ???

Oh  just back from pub after match and thought promising until I got to this post and now flat double flat

[seaside boy]

Now it's going to the charity shop..my Christmas jumper

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, seaside boy said:

Now it's going to the charity shop..my Christmas jumper

Day 14 at least

[ribster]

3 minutes ago, seaside boy said:

Now it's going to the charity shop..my Christmas jumper

Think you might be a bit premature dear chap...

[bluearmy]

Looks quite simple - the phasing to our west shortens the current cold spell. it drives the euro heights which although hopefully only temporary, ensure that the trough lifts out in nw europe 

Current ens guidance remains that phasing 

operationals are playing around with pushing it back or in some instances it not occurring.

onto the 00z’s 
 

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks quite simple - the phasing to our west shortens the current cold spell. it drives the euro heights which although hopefully only temporary, ensure that the trough lifts out in nw europe 

Current ens guidance remains that phasing 

operationals are playing around with pushing it back or in some instances it not occurring.

onto the 00z’s 
 

Would somebody mind highlighting this 'phasing' event on a chart from today's runs?

[Johnp]

6 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Would somebody mind highlighting this 'phasing' event on a chart from today's runs?

I think it’s these two, could be wrong though!

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Johnp

[Tim Bland]

Latest Arome looking good for south East tomorrow eve, is it overdoing it though

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest Arome looking good for south East tomorrow eve, is it overdoing it though

Overdoes convection in the summer possibly more to do with overcompensating the dewpoint into higher values, which should be less of a problem here, I think it generally overdoes convection as well but less so in Winter, let's see how this goes...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest Arome looking good for south East tomorrow eve, is it overdoing it though

Areas in the NW saw significantly more snowfall than was first predicted throughout last night and today, so who knows. It’ll be a nowcasting event I would imagine! Some may get quite a dumping from this. 

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest Arome looking good for south East tomorrow eve, is it overdoing it though

Wow...i wish this was on the.money...thats 5 or 6 hours worth of snow isnt it?.

Ukv 18z not as good...although slightly better than the 12z...going to the wire with radar watching i think...

[Cold Winter Night]

Didn't see the EPS clusters come along tonight, I think.
Up to 240h not much different from 0z, and in the extended they're not too bad.

35 out of 51 members are in clusters that build positive height anomalies to the NE towards Christmas Day, and even the most Atlantic cluster (1) retains some heights in N-Scandinavia.

On the De Bilt plume, the very end is ever so slightly colder than this morning, so we got something to work with, even if we may have to go through a milder (near average) interlude.

[Mapantz]

Nice little upgrade on the UKV 21Z for the SE:

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Will have a more in-depth analysis as it gets to nearer +hrs but keep eyes on Wednesday particularly South-West & South Coastal England and Wales 

Also potentially some freezing rain (perhaps accumulating) in Midlands + Wales on Monday 

Edited December 11, 2022 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Kentspur]

6 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Expect most would be happy with that! 40cm for some !!

I knew it the day after I leave NW Kent for Cork! And you watch it verify anyway hows things looking here this time tomorrow? Ive had a migraine all day probably from watching footy/,checking weather apps and model fatigue lol

[Wivenswold]

Are UKv and Arome suggesting a Thames Streamer and/or Kent Clipper situation? The former carpeted NE Essex the week before Christmas 2010. 

[Porto]

The AROME covering quite a bit of the south with at least some amount of snow in the latest run, focus still mostly in the east.

[MKN]

Excellent 00z GFS. Cold upto 126 and includes snowfall for 48 hours continuously for those in the South from 6am weds.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144

❤❤

Edited December 11, 2022 by northwestsnow