Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Snowmadsam]

11 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Sorry guys, not what you were hoping for, it's just like T+168 on the ECM was this morning.

Let’s see if there is also divergence on tonight’s ECM Op and ENS.

The EC op has not me the most inspiring amongst its suite of it and has been outliering a few times, highlighting the difficulty in predicting the pattern

[Mucka]

On 16/12/2022 at 11:17, Mucka said:

Most notable for longer term prospects is probably the strengthening Atlantic blocking which although currently showing W based -NAO could go on to provide a Scandi ridge with improvements to the angular momentum of the low.

 

This post was from a few days ago when GFS ensembles finally started to sniff it but is one of several on the potential for an Atlantic ridge to not flatten but topple and form a Scandi ridge.

We are certainly not there yet but this shows that when looking at the output past 5 days or so we have to extrapolate and make our own interpretations rather than take the output at face value.

Sure we will get it wrong as well as right but if you have been looking at charts for many years you will see potential trends before the output catches up.

For example, here is GFS just 3 days ago. Where is the Atlantic ridge?

[andy989]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

This post was from a few days ago when GFS ensembles finally started to sniff it but is one of several on the potential for an Atlantic ridge to not flatten but topple and form a Scandi ridge.

We are certainly not there yet but this shows that when looking at the output past 5 days or so we have to extrapolate and make our own interpretations rather than take the output at face value.

Sure we will get it wrong as well as right but if you have been looking at charts for many years you will see potential trends before the output catches up.

For example, here is GFS just 3 days ago. Where is the Atlantic ridge?

An important point. Too many posts on here just taking models on face value and not being analysed properly using a number of different techniques. Emotionally charged reactions from simply taking one look at the charts. It’s an art to be able to read between the lines an deduce for yourselves which way the models may go next. 

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Pete..do not pass go...do not collect £200..im even removing your get out of jail free card for salavating over such mild charts!

UKMO and we have some very impressive uppers towards the NE...theres gonna be a boundary setting up this Xmas.  Some lucky sods will get snow...im not sure who,but I wouldn't be suprised to see a white Xmas cropping up for a few.

And he'll yeh that's so much better than last year!

And guess what no change from the met..Still colder spells being more likely than normal in the weeks ahead!

I'm happy enough to pull a cracker stuff myself with turkey and even a lovely piece of trifle right now...hell I may even kisss myself under the mistletoe cause no other bugger will do it!

So a mild few days before slowly going colder after mid week...areas further North getting Snow showers I would have thought!

 

Let's hope we can muster a decent ecm op this evening. 

[Don]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Let's hope we can muster a decent ecm op this evening. 

Yes, that would further lighten the mood a bit!!

[snowbob]

I think maybe the ecm could tell us more depending if it follows Ukmo or gfs 

Or knowing the ecm will just do it’s own thing

[Jono E]

Met guys stateside are calling loco-zonal for North- Western Europe for the foreseeable. The models back this up with the PV winding up unfavourably.

[Rain All Night]

4 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Met guys stateside are calling loco-zonal for North- Western Europe for the foreseeable. The models back this up with the PV winding up unfavourably.

What is "loco-zonal"? The only Google result for this term is from this very thread two days ago!

Edited December 18, 2022 by RainAllNight

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, andy989 said:

An important point. Too many posts on here just taking models on face value and not being analysed properly using a number of different techniques. Emotionally charged reactions from simply taking one look at the charts. It’s an art to be able to read between the lines an deduce for yourselves which way the models may go next. 

Of course, may not happen but the principle is sound. 

There is also value in explaining what a particular model is showing as well but if you want to  "forecast" or "guesscast " with any success then that is the way to go.

So how is everybody feeling about ECM?

Are we trepidatious, hopeful, confident? 

[Johnp]

Tonight’s ECM will either pull out another mild outlier

or

Produce a cracker, with Xmas blizzards - and then turn out that the ensembles have flipped and it’s now a cold outlier. 

2 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Met guys stateside are calling loco-zonal for North- Western Europe for the foreseeable. The models back this up with the PV winding up unfavourably.

Link please to this insightful information. 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What is "loco-zonal"?

I imagine a 'zonal train'?!

[northwestsnow]

GFS = victory.

UKMO = misery.

Over to you EC ...

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Met guys stateside are calling loco-zonal for North- Western Europe for the foreseeable. The models back this up with the PV winding up unfavourably.

We will just have to hope for a SSW sooner rather than later then!!

Edited December 18, 2022 by Don

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Of course, may not happen but the principle is sound. 

There is also value in explaining what a particular model is showing as well but if you want to  "forecast" or "guesscast " with any success then that is the way to go.

So how is everybody feeling about ECM?

Are we trepidatious, hopeful, confident? 

Christmas period still well up for grabs - Hopeful 🌨🌨

[SilverWolf]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Would be a lot of happy folk in the south Christmas evening…Although it might mean in the in-laws have to stay over

Pretty similar to last Sunday! 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS = victory.

UKMO = misery.

Over to you EC ...

GFS needs more support!

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What is "loco-zonal"? The only Google result for this term is from this very thread two days ago!

I don’t know, but it doesn’t sound nice!

[Don]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I don’t know, but it doesn’t sound nice!

No it doesn't!

[Eskimo]

The word 'zonal' sounds absolutely terrible...however you can get a southerly tracking jet with a zonal pattern...and it's that set up that produces the greatest snowfalls.

A zonal pattern doesn't always mean 'mild and wet' 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Eskimo

[January Snowstorm]

Jma looks closer to ukmo at 132hrs.

The gfs looks a little on its own though icon is similar

[minus10]

Interesting 12zgfes ...op following mean on way down with good cluster below..

[Malarky]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Interesting 12zgfes ...op following mean on way down with good cluster below..

This can’t be right in the run up to Christmas, surely. Is the chart upside down?

[tight isobar]

Just b4 the ec 12z to refer I’ve not seen 1 US - senior MET quote such as euro zonal/ mobility.. I think the wind up flag is being raised ere

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Interesting 12zgfes ...op following mean on way down with good cluster below..

This is what we wanna see-@ clustering

[Singularity]

It’s a tale of two secondary lows on the main own to our west, one moving into it from the northwest Wed-Thu then another from the northeast Fri-Sat.

GFS gets where it does by developing neither. Could it really be calling that right over UKM & GEM, with the first call being at under 5 days lead time?

Seems odds against, although over-development of secondary lows is one of the most common general modelling biases.

UKM was exploring not developing the first of the lows until yesterday’s 12z.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

23 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Met guys stateside are calling loco-zonal for North- Western Europe for the foreseeable. The models back this up with the PV winding up unfavourably.

LOCO? Are you sure it wasn't the Mexico met office

I think I will take our own met and the guys on here over their thoughts.