Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Cleeve Hill]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

There's nothing on offer Ed tbh. Industrial straws should be issued for clutching unless you follow the mfi, b+q and other background signals. Anyway merry Xmas and a happy new year to you all. Remember Try and do your bit for the homeless and the worse off .

We’ll said on your last point. I volunteer for The Trussell Trust North Cotswold Foodbank. We’ve had our busiest Xmas ever and over the year 120% more food parcels issued this year than 2021.The cold snap was tough for a lot of people and this is the Cotswolds not town’s or cities. 

Merry Christmas all 

[Tim Bland]

ECM flirts with the idea of something more Interesting. Unfortunately the next low is just too powerful along with heights across Spain. Just need one or other to give us a break 

[Uncertainty]

Very early days, but this anomaly isn’t far from one that would really perturb the strat

Aleutian low, Ural high. 
 

Would like to see more of a vertical element to the WAA and for the ridge to push westwards a little more. It’s a big ask, but it’s a start. Yesterdays had a scandi trough.

GFS has a look at the same sort of pattern as the 12z ec, though a little later in the run 

 

Straws yes, but this is what we need to look for.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Uncertainty

[minus10]

Yuck.....not what a coldie wants to see for the onset of the new year as per ecm12z.

I must admit when we had that anomalous cold spell down here recently i was thinking that with scenes like this...

...if we had no more cold weather this winter it would still be better than most...we were incredibly lucky to experience that in my area...however i was also kinda thinking that there would be another cold snap ( at least) as we are still early days...now though...well lets say i am working hard to keep the faith...

The Gfs being the Gfs always has to do this later on in FI..

In horticulture yellow and blue often work well together bringing out the intensity of each colour...perhaps that also occurs with these charts..however you just know the wild yellow and orange daffodils will spread at the expense of the blue...

....the weather will be the weather and we will still be addicted to what could happen, what maybe round the corner...

Just want to wish all of you , including the amateur, experienced and professional posters alike and those like me who are just interested in weather a Happy Christmas and better new year ...lets hope so anyway as things pretty tough at present ...great forum as ever and even i am learning stuff...more than i did in geography at school a 'few' years ago..

[Purga]

UKMET still holding with their view of colder conditions mid Jan onwards (text forecast). Not overly mild in the meantime either.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Purga

[damianslaw]

Last post from me in the forum - break over christmas. A typical end to the year weatherwise, atlantic in ascendancy, mild generally, very mild at times in the south, but some colder weather briefly in the north on occasion thanks to polar maritime air nudging in. 

Longer term - just hints the atlantic may become unstuck again - with heights building from the south and possibly ridging into scandi or through UK gradually - I can see how a colder evolution may set up but may take its time (2nd week Jan onwards), to get there a very mild SW/S flow would probably surface to start 2023... mmm resemblance to how 2022 began, but this time heights building further north than last January.

Happy Christmas all!

[Stuie]

37 minutes ago, Purga said:

UKMET still holding with their view of colder condiions mid Jan onwards (text forecast). Not overly mild in the meabtime either.

Isn`t no colour neutral, seasonal and not above or below average?

Edit: Just reread your comment, ignore above and yes not overly mild.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Stuie W

[Guest]

GFS consistent in its 10 day modelling with some lovely warmth for the South of the UK. 

If only the euro high can make it north a little further and we could see a lovely spell of weather. 

Quite wet on the border between the warm and mild conditions though.

[Don]

Growing trend for New Year to be remarkably similar to last year?!! 

[Purga]

18 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Isn`t no colour neutral, seasonal and not above or below average?

Edit: Just reread your comment, ignore above and yes not overly mild.

Actually Stuie, I should have captioned that the chart shows forecast MSLP anomalies - indicating higher pressure patterns expected to the NE. See below

Edited December 23, 2022 by Purga

[Don]

33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

mmm resemblance to how 2022 began, but this time heights building further north than last January.

Indeed and a bit risky but we shall see.....

Merry Christmas! 

[joggs]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Growing trend for New Year to be remarkably similar to last year?!! 

Which is?.......

[Don]

Just now, joggs said:

Which is?.......

Very mild!

[Don]

8 minutes ago, DCee said:

GFS consistent in its 10 day modelling with some lovely warmth for the South of the UK. 

If only the euro high can make it north a little further and we could see a lovely spell of weather. 

Quite wet on the border between the warm and mild conditions though.

If only the Euro high could make it further north and east into Scandinavia then I would agree! 

[Derecho]

Yesterday's GFS NAO ensemble members for yesterday and today respectively.

Still a very strong positive NAO signal appearing, especially for the new year. A lot of scatter over that but still a strong +NAO signal. Fingers crossed a transient ridge appears to our west or we get a Scandi high.

[Ali1977]

Pub run coming up, I just have a feeling the models will start churning out some festive cheer - the current set up with the American arctic blast must still be causing issues with the models, therefore can we get a better Atlantic ridge at day 6/7 providing more potent cold air from the north - if so any lp’s off the Atlantic bumping into that may give a decent snow event somewhere in the U.K.  !! 
 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yesterday's GFS NAO ensemble members for yesterday and today respectively.

Still a very strong positive NAO signal appearing, especially for the new year. A lot of scatter over that but still a strong +NAO signal. Fingers crossed a transient ridge appears to our west or we get a Scandi high.

What’s the European NAO ? 

is it like loco zonality ?  

[Derecho]

Just now, bluearmy said:

What’s the European NAO ? 

is it like loco zonality ?  

This is actually an official thing lol. UK research studies into the NAO often go for the Gibraltar - Iceland SLP gradient because its most closely connected to temperatures across Europe. 

It also goes all the way back to 1821 and proxies go back to the 1500s so its better for looking into long term trends.

NAO data

CRUDATA.UEA.AC.UK

 

[SqueakheartLW]

Think we have to hope the GEM 12z Control Run is the new trend setter as we head into January and if it fails then I'd take P04 instead. They are the only 2 decent ensemble members in the GEM 12z

As for the GFS 12z only P04 has any sustained cold in early January

ECM 12z had nothing on offer as far as I could tell for cold spells but very short cold snaps on a couple of members.

 

So basically across 32 members on GFS, 22 members on GEM and 52 members on ECM only 3 of 96 ensemble members had anything decent showing, only 3.125% of them. Not a great outlook for coldies based on the 3 main models.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Think we have to hope the GEM 12z Control Run is the new trend setter as we head into January and if it fails then I'd take P04 instead. They are the only 2 decent ensemble members in the GEM 12z

As for the GFS 12z only P04 has any sustained cold in early January

ECM 12z had nothing on offer as far as I could tell for cold spells but very short cold snaps on a couple of members.

 

So basically across 32 members on GFS, 22 members on GEM and 52 members on ECM only 3 of 96 ensemble members had anything decent showing, only 3.125% of them. Not a great outlook for coldies based on the 3 main models.

So you’re  saying there’s a chance ???

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Pub run coming up, I just have a feeling the models will start churning out some festive cheer - the current set up with the American arctic blast must still be causing issues with the models, therefore can we get a better Atlantic ridge at day 6/7 providing more potent cold air from the north - if so any lp’s off the Atlantic bumping into that may give a decent snow event somewhere in the U.K. 
 

I agree. I think this time next week there will be quite a decent snow event somewhere in central/southern Britain. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So you’re  saying there’s a chance ???

Chance of what though? Another Jan 87? Fat chance of course. Ruling out cold and cold enough for snow? That would be foolhardy judging from the output we are seeing today. 

[ANYWEATHER]

57 minutes ago, DCee said:

GFS consistent in its 10 day modelling with some lovely warmth for the South of the UK. 

If only the euro high can make it north a little further and we could see a lovely spell of weather. 

Quite wet on the border between the warm and mild conditions though.

Well, you won't be very popular with your statement on here

[stodge]

Evening all

Thought I'd reference the accumulated rainfall numbers from GFS 12Z OP:

A lot of rain (nearly 8 inches in old money) for western Scotland but note the high numbers through the Straits of Dover and just clipping the far south east suggesting some of these frontal systems and secondary LP might pack a bit of a punch. Overall, pretty unsettled and wet for many if not all.

The other observation is one I often make - the route to very cold starts from very mild. We often need a very mild synoptic evolution to begin the process of amplification toward something different or a change in the pattern. As others have noticed, heights to the south can, if the jet slows sufficiently, build into a mid-latitude block if not better.

We have in my view 14-21 days of mild weather, initially unsettled but becoming very mild and more settled around New Year before we see another pattern change.

[Jono E]

“Going loco-zonal acapulco, it has all gone wrong “

“Going loco-zonal acapulco, the flow from the South-West so strong “

Merry Christmas All !

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Jono E