Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Rain All Night]

I'm pleased to see good signs of a settling down IMBY from Monday onwards (EPS 0z), just in time for going back to work:

I also note this is the first time since our cold spell ended that I've seen some EPS members entertain the possibility of heights weakening over Barcelona, in the second week of January:

[MJB]

37 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And there we go folks..the first poster to write off an entire month of Winter! Yes 1 whole month..31 days infact....considering a forecast beyond 7 days is often faught with danger,to go for the month then...wow..there must be some higher powers at work.

Give it another week and I'm sure some will be coming on to write February off also..and by the end of Feb there will be some who Start saying next winter may also not deliver!! Do you get where I'm going with this...

There are some ensemble support for some kind of height rises towards the NE with time and the pv may well lose a little oomph during this timescale also..but write off a month at your own peril...the weather makes mugs of the best of em.

I had to post this en to lift the spirits,cause I'm worried some of you may start hibernation if any more come on too write off weeks at a time. How often do you see the black reach our shores! It may have been sniffing the bostik....but you just never know.

Happy Holiday Tuesday folks.

Including the rest of this year that's 35 days - ( 5 weeks with nothing of interest ) ,

 

That's some prediction and of course could be right but I think this thread will be buzzing again soon 

[noonoo418]

39 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And there we go folks..the first poster to write off an entire month of Winter! Yes 1 whole month..31 days infact....considering a forecast beyond 7 days is often faught with danger,to go for the month then...wow..there must be some higher powers at work.

Give it another week and I'm sure some will be coming on to write February off also..and by the end of Feb there will be some who Start saying next winter may also not deliver!! Do you get where I'm going with this...

There are some ensemble support for some kind of height rises towards the NE with time and the pv may well lose a little oomph during this timescale also..but write off a month at your own peril...the weather makes mugs of the best of em.

I had to post this en to lift the spirits,cause I'm worried some of you may start hibernation if any more come on too write off weeks at a time. How often do you see the black reach our shores! It may have been sniffing the bostik....but you just never know.

Happy Holiday Tuesday folks.

This cracks me up.....10/10 for sense of humour.....though picking is often criticised on this thread!! On a more serious note though, please can the experts among you correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't Scandi highs notoriously well known for having propensity to pop up at fairly short notice?! Which in all fairness adds substantially more credibility to even a minority of perturbations showing a route to such a set up?

[Buzz]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Yes, well January has been written off lol

Anyone writing off January at the end of December is either a fool, a troll, or possesses a very accurate crystal ball or a time machine.

[mushymanrob]

Nothing of interest?...

 

[CoventryWeather]

3 minutes ago, noonoo418 said:

On a more serious note though, please can the experts among you correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't Scandi highs notoriously well known for having propensity to pop up at fairly short notice?!

Generally picked up by OPs first, generally at a short timeframe. So yes, they tend to get better when they get towards Days 7/8. 

I also favour the ECM when it comes to Scandi High developments, which it had at day 10 this morning. I feel a cold mid Jan is still a chance, and I stand by that opinion. 

Edit- that's supporting the ECM ensembles a bit there above.

Edited December 27, 2022 by CoventryWeather
Addition to above post

[Battleground Snow]

Hi all,

Been battling the flu/bad cold over the last few days like a lot of other people (awful timing)

Just a glimmer of light from the 10 day ecm chart this morning, would have liked to have seen day 11.

The mjo charts have found a little bit more amplitude today, so add the lag period in and we may see some interesting charts appearing for the 11/12th soon, although it looks a stretch to get the high in the sceuro area sufficiently far north to get the cold to advect west under the block.

Hopefully will can get the thread buzzing again in the new year like we had in early December.

[Summer8906]

35 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Anyone writing off January at the end of December is either a fool, a troll, or possesses a very accurate crystal ball or a time machine.

I do think there is a logical reason for the comment, because once a zonal pattern gets setup this time of year, it tends to persist for weeks. Not necessarily for the whole month, but certainly for the first 20 days or so.

Making a completely non-expert view on the models: this year does offer some hope though as the behaviour of the continental high pressure in early Jan on some runs is showing some sign of interest as it moves northwards towards, but not to, Scandinavia. So we do have a window around the 7/8 Jan for something to happen perhaps.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Summer8906

[The Enforcer]

15 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

Some noticeable changes to the local synoptics between T+72 & T+84:

T+84

T+72

Two bowling ball LPs north of UK obliterated, northerly feed being introduced to Scotland. Incoming LPs across the Atlantic are further east.

Some shifts again, this time for Friday between T+96 & T+84:

T+96

T+84

Bowling ball LP to north wiped out, LP to north-west gone, LP to west added, LP system stretched more E to W than N to S. 528 DAM line into Scotland.

[johnholmes]

4 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Some shifts again, this time for Friday between T+96 & T+84:

T+96

T+84

Bowling ball LP to north wiped out, LP to north-west gone, LP to west added, LP system stretched more E to W than N to S. 528 DAM line into Scotland.

all in a days, or rather one shift's work as a weather forecaster. To change so much the duty forecaster must have seen or be aware of quite large changes in the data being received

[sebastiaan1973]

2 hours ago, Cold Winter Night said:

When the High resolution Op strays far from the ensemble mean, the advice is always to disregard it and to take the mean more seriously.

So this morning's EC Op at the end should be disregarded for that reason, but as a straw to clutch there is also always that possibility that the higher resolution picked up something the ensemble missed.

This chart does have so many features I would like to see in January:
- Scandi High with CAA moving SW along its Southeastern flank.
- Genoa Low, to support that flow.
- Atlantic WAA to feed the High along its Northwestern side.

The De Bilt plume shows how quickly winter could come back in that Op scenario.

Before Day 8 there is little wintry interest, but the regime chart shows the ensemble reluctant to go into full +NAO mode and hinting at a move towards +BLO (Scandi-Euro blocking).

The De Bilt wind direction chart shows more members picking up from the Easterly quadrant again:

Precipitation signals also drop, so all signs of more counter force against Atlantic mobility.

Technically, Scandi Highs are often more Mid Latitude Blocking than High Latitude blocking, it fits in the range of possible outcomes, and other models, especially GFS, have already hinted at similar scenarios around the same dates over the past week.
EC46 also holds on to a shift towards Scandinavian/European Blocking dominating Mid January.

So let's just stay in that Christmas spirit and hope that the Scandi High option gets more support from the 12z Op, the EPS and the other models.

I don't think such a setting (EC-oiper) will bring any signicant cold weather in the UK. Tough, It can be good enough for the Low Countries.  

[swfc]

In regard to January being a rite off comments teits made a point early in regard to areas of low pressure edging South and  then running into colder air ie snow. Wouldn't take much of a drop in pressure to the sse to allow a shift. One more point does anyone remember the times when a  low crossed the uk and then brought a northerly in. They used to be regular and brought in snow to the usual places followed by a toppler high. What happened to that regular winter set up. Euro High the culprit???

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, Chesil View said:

Tamara's post above is all about expectation management.

Heart and head if you like.

As a cold and snow addict living on the south coast my heart starts around mid November wishing for an 1981 or 2010 start to winter, when that doesn't happen it moves to hoping for a 62/63 cold spell bringing big snow and cold well into the new year .when that doesn't happen a snowy January like 85 springs to the fore when we get beyond mid Janand nought of any note has happened then my heart thinks never mind 1947 didn't start till final week of Jan. Obviously 1947 doesn't arrive and I'm left from an imby point of view hoping against hope for a Feb 1978 southwest blizzard. Mid Feb passes and modern times have offered up The 2018 beast from the east as one last heart hope before meteorological winter subsides. All of this in my heart.

In my head come mid November I know that even one snippet of the above is very very unlikely to happen. We are where we are geographically and the atmospheric dynamics that regularly affect our geographical location do not lend themselves to weeks of winter wonderland synoptics unless something extra special occurs atmospherically.

Amazingly having recently moved from inland Dorset to within a few hundred yards of the coast and in the process reducing my lying snow chances even further.  I have actually already seen lying snow this winter. A very shallow covering but a covering nevertheless. This already makes it better than many winters I have experienced in the last 30 years.

 Living in the far south has tempered my expectations but it will never temper my hopes.  I could have given up but I never did and that made December 2010  Jan 2013 and the beast from the east all the sweeter.

Keep your heads guys and girls but never ever lose heart.  Because without that wehave nothing.

What a brilliant post! The above is so so true and the reason why so many of us come back here each and every Winter

[Ali1977]

55 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Hi all,

Been battling the flu/bad cold over the last few days like a lot of other people (awful timing)

Just a glimmer of light from the 10 day ecm chart this morning, would have liked to have seen day 11.

The mjo charts have found a little bit more amplitude today, so add the lag period in and we may see some interesting charts appearing for the 11/12th soon, although it looks a stretch to get the high in the sceuro area sufficiently far north to get the cold to advect west under the block.

Hopefully will can get the thread buzzing again in the new year like we had in early December.

That’s the trend we want, more amplitude

Lets hope that continues, and the rest of the days runs start increasing colder options in the 12-15 day time frame.

[Kasim Awan]

Nice to see profanity being thrown around towards others who share a differing opinion.

There is no denying that once a zonal pattern / strat-trop connect sets in it takes some shifting.

Let's see what the stratosphere gets upto in January. However, im not one to be persuaded by cult or magical thinking.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Nice to see profanity being thrown around towards others who share a differing opinion.

There is no denying that once a zonal pattern / strat-trop connect sets in it takes some shifting.

Let's see what the stratosphere gets upto in January. However, im not one to be persuaded by cult or magical thinking.

Hi. What barring a ssw would give a much needed nhp change. Caveats being mjo etc. Thanks 

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Nice to see profanity being thrown around towards others who share a differing opinion.

There is no denying that once a zonal pattern / strat-trop connect sets in it takes some shifting.

Let's see what the stratosphere gets upto in January. However, im not one to be persuaded by cult or magical thinking.

I think the point you made, was made without chart support or any real reasoning?... You may well be close to the eventual pattern we get, but theres no "magical thinking" when theres a realistic prospect of a SSW and the extended range Anomalies are suggesting high pressure to our East/and or Scandinavia. The extended range anomalies accurately predicted the Northern blocking in December..

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

I think the point you made, was made without chart support or any real reasoning?... You may well be close to the eventual pattern we get, but theres no "magical thinking" when theres a realistic prospect of a SSW and the extended range Anomalies are suggesting high pressure to our East/and or Scandinavia. The extended range anomalies accurately predicted the Northern blocking in December..

I do agree that going forward is not fully void of interest because of possible tropical / strat changes etc that when combined with an already poised blocking signal could deliver some interest. However, the strength of the spv-tpv connection and zonal flow and the speed at which this occured shows that this could well be a prolonged pattern change that has the potential to last a few weeks. Under a strong jet, any heights which pop up to our east would most likely get stuck over Europe and add to a bartlett situation. Imo they would only progress north westwards under more optimal tropical / strat signals which obviously need to come into play. If these coincide with a Scandi signal then I see the argument but personally would give it a 25-30% basis given how prolonged these fast switches tend to be.

[Kasim Awan]

I do think height rises to our east day 10 are highly likely but IMO given the strong iberian heights there will unlikely be enough pressure gradient for a decent easterly plus the strongish jet will be working to flattern it. The outcome? A few days of frosty cold ESE winds with a breakdown of freezing rain / snow on northern hills. Best case scenario (unlikely)? A 2 or 3 star easterly with some scattered accumulations.

[Kasim Awan]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hi. What barring a ssw would give a much needed nhp change. Caveats being mjo etc. Thanks 

Perhaps a mountain torque event or a tropical wave shift. These would be pebbles in a strong river tho - vs a big SSW or split which would be more of a boulder in the flow.

[Met4Cast]

I'm finding the comments moaning about people "writing off January" quite extraordinary given the same people don't seem to make the same observations when people are predicting cold a month in advance. Why is it okay to do one but not the other, I wonder?

Why is it okay to predict cold in a months time but not okay to say cold is unlikely despite both using the exact same teleconnections?

The MJO is likely to move into a more favourable phase for blocking, however; The AAM is low & the MJO amplitude looks to be quite low too. I suspect we'll instead see mid-latitude highs rather than high latitude. I.E a European high extending north into the UK around mid-month seems likely, blocking over Greenland or Scandinavia seems unlikely. 

So.. a zonal, mildish period of weather seems very likely before high pressure builds in towards the middle of the month. There is unfortunately, currently nothing to suggest a cold period is likely in January as things currently stand. 

Average or slightly above seems favoured. The SPV is moving back to Greenland & there are signs the stronger u-winds will begin to downwell. So.. it's going to take a lot more than the MJO alone to shift us into something cold.

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Nothing of interest?...

 

I agree Mushy that week 2-3 of January looks interesting to follow. I have therefore put together a little collage of ideas from recent NWP of how the day you highlighted (11th Jan) and the days that follow might look.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

I do think there is a logical reason for the comment, because once a zonal pattern gets setup this time of year, it tends to persist for weeks. Not necessarily for the whole month, but certainly for the first 20 days or so.

Making a completely non-expert view on the models: this year does offer some hope though as the behaviour of the continental high pressure in early Jan on some runs is showing some sign of interest as it moves northwards towards, but not to, Scandinavia. So we do have a window around the 7/8 Jan for something to happen perhaps.

Not saying we will see a repeat of Jan 2022, but many probably thought at this juncture last year, ah that's it atlantic will steam roll through for weeks, alas we had a mightly block for over 2 weeks, very dry, yes not especially cold - but shows how things can change, that came on the back of a long fetch southerly. Indeed the last 2 years has seen the atlantic come quickly unstuck.

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I'm finding the comments moaning about people "writing off January" quite extraordinary given the same people don't seem to make the same observations when people are predicting cold a month in advance. Why is it okay to do one but not the other, I wonder?

Why is it okay to predict cold in a months time but not okay to say cold is unlikely despite both using the exact same teleconnections?

The MJO is likely to move into a more favourable phase for blocking, however; The AAM is low & the MJO amplitude looks to be quite low too. I suspect we'll instead see mid-latitude highs rather than high latitude. I.E a European high extending north into the UK around mid-month seems likely, blocking over Greenland or Scandinavia seems unlikely. 

So.. a zonal, mildish period of weather seems very likely before high pressure builds in towards the middle of the month. There is unfortunately, currently nothing to suggest a cold period is likely in January as things currently stand. 

Average or slightly above seems favoured. The SPV is moving back to Greenland & there are signs the stronger u-winds will begin to downwell. So.. it's going to take a lot more than the MJO alone to shift us into something cold.

Absolutely nailed it.

Not much to look forward to meteorologically for the foreseeable. A crying shame after a VERY promising start.

Hope everyone had a great Christmas btw

[Bricriu]

16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I'm finding the comments moaning about people "writing off January" quite extraordinary given the same people don't seem to make the same observations when people are predicting cold a month in advance. Why is it okay to do one but not the other, I wonder?

Why is it okay to predict cold in a months time but not okay to say cold is unlikely despite both using the exact same teleconnections?

The MJO is likely to move into a more favourable phase for blocking, however; The AAM is low & the MJO amplitude looks to be quite low too. I suspect we'll instead see mid-latitude highs rather than high latitude. I.E a European high extending north into the UK around mid-month seems likely, blocking over Greenland or Scandinavia seems unlikely. 

So.. a zonal, mildish period of weather seems very likely before high pressure builds in towards the middle of the month. There is unfortunately, currently nothing to suggest a cold period is likely in January as things currently stand. 

Average or slightly above seems favoured. The SPV is moving back to Greenland & there are signs the stronger u-winds will begin to downwell. So.. it's going to take a lot more than the MJO alone to shift us into something cold.

Our Met Service - Met Éireann - in its monthly outlook for January, which was issued last week, signalled a high over or just to the north of the UK with a South Easterly flow for several days.