February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Polar Gael]

On 22/01/2023 at 10:39, Polar Gael said:

7.4°C and 122.4mm for me please.

Changing my entry for the month to 3.5C and 56.5mm please in the hope that the Beast actually shows up this winter...

[The PIT]

Well we are finishing on 5.3C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 85.1mm 114.4% of the monthly average.

Massive change from just before month when it looked like cruising to a record warm month for January.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'll go for 3.3c please.

[noname_weather]

5.2C and 60mm

[Godber 1]

3.6c and 44mm please.

[J10]

4.8c and 70mm

[mulzy]

4.0C and 40mm please

[Freeze]

4.9c and 60mm

[Mapantz]

4.9°C / 68mm

[Derecho]

+4.5C will be my estimate. A dry and anticylonic month. I don't think the cold air in the east will make it towards us.

[Don]

Why did the models have to start sodding about today?!  Anyway, I still think the chances are that February will be milder than average with any cold snaps more likely after mid month.  That said, it's more difficult to call than in recent days! 

5.6C and 76mm please.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ve had to lower my guess for Feb after seeing the possibility of anti cyclonic conditions dominating in the first half with chance of frosty weather, so I’ll go with 4.7cm and 74 mm with a wet end to February being my prediction

[Don]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I’ve had to lower my guess for Feb after seeing the possibility of anti cyclonic conditions dominating in the first half with chance of frosty weather, so I’ll go with 4.7cm and 74 mm with a wet end to February being my prediction

Would that equate to snow then?! 

[Wold Topper]

On 29/01/2023 at 14:42, Wold Topper said:

6.6°c and 68mm please,

Can i revise my prediction please,

5.4c and 65mm, thanks.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Would that equate to snow then?! 

I doubt it!

[Don]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

I doubt it!

Not in my back yard anyway!

[moorlander]

Hard to call this one a 4,5 or6 month. 

So I think it'll have to be a middle of the road

5.2C and 72mm

[Daniel*]

2.7C and 60mm thanks think it will be a cold month coldest of winter possibly. 

[snowray]

5.1c and 37.5mm please.

[Stationary Front]

‘Book end’ winter, with perhaps a colder second half of Feb. If easterly winds make it, will it be across the CET zone, or just the South East? Difficult to judge this one. Going with 3.9 and 68mm please. 

[February1978]

Difficult, not sure I believe GFS

5.5c and 55mm please

[Kentish Man]

2.9C thanks. 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for February 2023

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ____________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry)

 

8.2 __ 52.0 _ syed2878 ( 12 ) _________________________ 5.3 __ --- --- _ Man With Beard ( 38 ) ____   

7.9 __ 85.0 _ Ed Stone ( 07 ) __________________________ 5.2 __107.0 _ Weather26 ( 02 ) __________ 

7.2 __ 53.0 _ Norrance ( 28 ) __________________________5.2 __ 60.0 _ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____ 

7.0 __ 67.0 _ Blast From The Past ( 06 ) _______________5.2 __ 72.0 _ Moorlander ( 57 ) __________

6.9 __ 68.0 _ SLEETY ( 25 ) _____________________________5.1 __ 58.0 _ SteveB ( 41 ) ________________

6.7 __ 53.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 20 ) ______________________ 5.1 __ 37.5 _ snowray ( 59 ) ______________

6.5 __ 65.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 24 ) ___________________________ 5.1 __ 74.9 _ 1993-2022 average _______

6.4 _ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 21 ) ______________________ 5.0 __ 78.0 _ virtualsphere ( 10 ) __________

6.4 __ 64.0 _ Leo97t ( 23 ) _____________________________ 5.0 __ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average _______

6.4 __ 76.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 26 ) _______________________ 4.9 __ 48.0 _ Cymro ( 31 ) __________________

6.3 __ 58.0 _ Reef ( 29 ) ________________________________ 4.9 __ 60.0 _ freeze ( 51 ) __________________

6.3 __ 70.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 32 ) ____________________ 4.9 __ 68.0 _ Mapantz ( 52 ) ________________

6.2 __ 80.0 _ summer8906 ( 08 ) _______________________ 4.9 __ 38.0 _ Weather Observer ( L1-2 ) ____

6.2 __ 52.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 11 ) ______________4.8 __ 70.0 _ J 10 ( 49 ) _____________________ 

6.2 _ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 19 ) ________________________4.7 __ 33.0 _ Summer Shower ( 18 ) _______

6.2 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 35 ) _________________________4.7 __ 74.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 55 ) ____ 

6.1 __ 57.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 15 ) ___________________4.6 __ 52.0 _ Bobd29 ( 01 ) ________________ 

6.1 __ 35.0 _ davehsug ( 34 ) ___________________________4.6 __ --- --- _Rob 79812010 ( 17 ) _________ 

6.0 __ 50.0 _ Earthshine ( 03 ) __________________________4.5 __ 52.0 _ seaside60 ( 43 ) ______________  

6.0 __ 66.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 22 ) ________________________4.5 __ --- --- _ Quicksilver1989 ( 53 ) _______

6.0 __ 65.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 27 ) ____________________4.4 __ 78.0 _ Jeff C ( 40 ) ___________________ 

5.9 __ 66.0 _ rwtwm ( 30 ) ______________________________4.4 __ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average _______  

5.8 __ 60.0 _ The PIT ( 14 ) ______________________________4.1 __ 88.0 _ Summer18 ( 09 ) _____________ 

5.8 __ 82.0 _ Metwatch ( 33 ) ___________________________ 4.1 __ 81.0 _ jonboy ( 42 ) __________________

5.7 _ 129.6 _ Chilly Milly ( 05 ) __________________________ 4.0 __ 40.0 _ mulzy ( 50 ) ___________________ 

5.7 __ 85.0 _ summer blizzard ( 39 ) ____________________ 3.9 __ 88.0 _ NeilN ( 13 ) ___________________ 

5.7 __ 32.7 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( L1-3 ) ________ 3.9 __ 68.0 _ Stationary Front ( 60 ) ________

5.6 _ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 37 ) __________________________ 3.8 __ 46.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 44 ) _______ 

__________________________________________________________3.7 __ 36.4 _ Let It Snow! ( L1-4 ) ___________

5.6 __ 76.0 _ Don ( 54 ) __________________________________ 3.6 __ 44.0 _ Godber1 ( 48 ) ________________

5.6 __ 76.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-1 ) ___________________ 3.5 _ 56.5 _ Polar Gael ( 45 ) ________________

5.5 __ 90.0 _ Frigid ( 36 ) _________________________________3.3 __ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 46 ) _____

5.5 __ 55.0 _ February1978 ( 61 ) ________________________2.9 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 62 ) _____________

5.4 __ 65.0 _ Wold Topper ( 56 )_________________________ 2.7 __ 96.2 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 04 ) _______ 

__________________________________________________________ 2.7 __ 60.0 _ daniel* ( 58 ) ___________________ 

5.35 _ 65.0 _ consensus ________________________________ 2.1 __ 40.0 _ snowblind ( 16 ) _______________

 ______________________________

62 on time forecasts, plus four that were one day late, 66 total ... consensus 5.35 C

=============================================

 

EWP Forecasts in order

 

129.6_cm .. 107_wx26 .. 96.2_KW ..  90_Frig .. 88_sum18,NN .. 85_EdS, sb .. 82_Met .. 81_jon

 80_sum8906 .. 78_virt, Jeff .. 76_MrM, Don, MIA^ ..  74.9 _93-22 .. 74_pSL .. 72.4 _91-20

 72_Moor .. 70_Feb91, J 10 .. 68_SLE, Map, SF .. 67_BFTP .. 66.5 _81-10 .. 66_shil, rwtwm

 65_DR(S),DRL,WT .. 64_Leo .. 60_PIT, non, fre, dan .. 58_Reef, Ste .. 57_dww .. 56.5 _PG

 55_Feb78 .. 53.7_RJS .. 53_Norr .. 52_Bobd,WxEn, syed, sea .. 50_Earth .. 48_cym .. 46_EG ..

 44_godb .. 40_snowblind, mulzy .. 38_WxOb^ .. 37.5_snow .. 

 36.4 _ LIS ^ .. 35_dave .. 33 _SumSh .. 32.7_TWS^

_________________

53 on time forecasts, and four marked one day late ^ ... 57 total ... consensus 65.0 mm

 

Late forecasts accepted until end of 3rd of February ... anyone already entered can change a forecast during that time, with the applicable late penalty. If for example you change CET but not EWP, the EWP forecast remains entered in the order shown here and will not also be deemed late (also vice versa). If you change both, they are both subject to the same late penalties. 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Midlands Ice Age]

76mms and 5,6C please

MIA

Sorry to be late,  but forgot to post it!!  When I checked it was still there waiting to be posted.

[Weather Observer]

4.9c and 38mm please.