Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Rain All Night]

Interestingly on the GEFS, the 2m cold anomaly disappears more quickly after it appears than I had imagined.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I said a couple of nights ago that the models are out of their comfort zone. And yes - that includes the ecm. They always struggle when it comes to uncertain levels of amplification. Especially in the Scandi region. 

And just to highlight my point. I give you yesterday's 12z ecm day 10 chart alongside today's 12z ecm day 9. 

[January Snowstorm]

Almost total agreement on the models this evening of a UK high and no Easterly. I see the jma and GEM don't get much of a mention this evening? Both flat as a pancake, evolving to mild Southwesterlys.

The gfs is on its own and backtracking slowly but surely. The old gfs would not have been like this, the upgrade has brought the model to cannon fodder, must surely be running last for accuracy

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What’s interesting about the GFS ECM standoff, is that both models are going against their own bias and seemingly sticking to it.  In my experience it is more usual for GFS to have the flatter bias, and ECM the more amplified, so they are kind of backing each other’s horse!

In past years on here it was ECM often leading us up garden path with Scandi highs ect. Things have probably changed but the amplification bias is still known. No model is perfect the GFS does have its occasional moments, while it’s probably going a step too far at the moment I’m not sure today’s guidance has really closed the matter. A colder but dry continental flow could quite easily be achieved. Personally I don’t think see a quick return to westerlies.

[Stuie]

Just now, Daniel* said:

In past years on here it was ECM often leading us up garden path with Scandi highs ect. Things have probably changed but the amplification bias is still known. No model is perfect the GFS does have its occasional moments, while it’s probably going a step too far at the moment I’m not sure today’s guidance has really closed the matter. A colder but dry continental flow could quite easily be achieved. Personally I don’t think see a quick return to westerlies.

It was that model which if I remember correctly, from a NW mod, get ready it`s coming! 24 hrs later... 

[Cuban Zebra]

I’m impressed with how certain people seem to be of one outcome over another at the minute!

Others have posted how the wild swings suggest all models are struggling with current modelling and I reckon it’s right, it appears that we are on the cusp of something epic and the next few days will show exactly how epic!!!

[Gowon]

JMA at 264 has drained all the purples over greenland and the pattern amplifies over the atlantic.

Meanwhile, the high starts fighting back at day 10 on the ECM

[blizzard81]

Just now, Cuban Zebra said:

I’m impressed with how certain people seem to be of one outcome over another at the minute!

Others have posted how the wild swings suggest all models are struggling with current modelling and I reckon it’s right, it appears that we are on the cusp of something epic and the next few days will show exactly how epic!!!

I for one certainly wouldn't rule that out at this juncture. 

[Cold Winter Night]

EC 240h, new attempt at NE height rises...
They do it on purpose, to tease us, that must be it.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Almost total agreement on the models this evening of a UK high and no Easterly. I see the jma and GEM don't get much of a mention this evening? Both flat as a pancake, evolving to mild Southwesterlys.

The gfs is on its own and backtracking slowly but surely. The old gfs would not have been like this, the upgrade has brought the model to cannon fodder, must surely be running last for accuracy

Indeed, it was obvious where this was all heading and even now hopes are being retained by some of an easterly appearing.  A bit of movement from UKMO and ECM, but ultimately it is the GFS doing the biggest movement and the backtrack will be complete in the next few runs.  A UK high has been the favoured outcome for several days now, unfortunately the operational runs of the GFS have masked this outlook and the GFS's reputation since the "upgrade" continues to fall.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

EC 240h, new attempt at NE height rises...
They do it on purpose, to tease us, that must be it.

Trop vortex less menacing as well. I think some people think it’s game over if we fail to jump first hurdle but this might not be the case. Note zonal wind is expected to go below average near mid month. It’s unfortunate we see a surge in zonality coinciding with attempt next week. This winter I’ve say we have had a series of misfortunes starting with impressive December -NAO ebbing away. Second half of February should be a less hostile environment for blocking.

 

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

I’m impressed with how certain people seem to be of one outcome over another at the minute!

Others have posted how the wild swings suggest all models are struggling with current modelling and I reckon it’s right, it appears that we are on the cusp of something epic and the next few days will show exactly how epic!!!

Yes, would still wait until GFS, UKMO, EC and GEM all fall in line with each other to call this - even if the GFS is the odd one out, still some uncertainty past T+96 with regards to how quickly the core of the TPV, currently over northern Canada, shifts NE across Greenland and also the uncertainty of extent of the cold air advection west over Europe as the high builds NE across the UK next week. So could still be some wriggle room for next week.

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What’s interesting about the GFS ECM standoff, is that both models are going against their own bias and seemingly sticking to it.  In my experience it is more usual for GFS to have the flatter bias, and ECM the more amplified, so they are kind of backing each other’s horse!

Arpege and GFs 114z

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Arpege and GFs 114z

Whilst not as good as the GFS it's better than the others.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Arpege and GFs 114z

Yeah not to far apart really pressure wise, albeit much colder air coming south on the Gfs through Scandy 

[ANYWEATHER]

21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Almost total agreement on the models this evening of a UK high and no Easterly. I see the jma and GEM don't get much of a mention this evening? Both flat as a pancake, evolving to mild Southwesterlys.

The gfs is on its own and backtracking slowly but surely. The old gfs would not have been like this, the upgrade has brought the model to cannon fodder, must surely be running last for accuracy

There's no point wurriting about gfs performance, at the moment, plenty of time for things to change, I don't think there is anything set in stone as from early next week

[blizzard81]

The other great thing about this if things go our way at around T96 and the other models (Aperge already) start to fall in line, is that it won't be a long countdown to narnia. 

[Daniel*]

ECM 12z is hardly mild next week… below average temperatures. A story of winter again perhaps featuring low minima.

[Ladyofthestorm]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

...which is not a surprise. The passage of the MJO strongly through the IO supports the SE USA ridge and until it gets back to the Maritimes there is no connected support for anything to shift the Greenland/Icelandic low. Worth also showing these 2 graphics:

both of which show quite clearly that we are now slipping into an ocean/atmosphere connected La Nina state....and that means atlantic westerlies. No change to anything I have said about the first half of February ever since we failed to get a substantive impact from stratospheric disruption.

Things will change a bit in the second half of February. The MJO will come back around to phase 6/7/8 and given how active it has been this season I see no reason why it cannot continue in that same way. We will have the seasonal weakening of the vortex, indeed with the long wave pattern encouraging ridging in the Scandy sector and a north pacific that has surprised me this year and allowed more low pressure through the Aleutians - the EC long term forecast of another weakening of the strat vortex into the second half of February perhaps to levels that are significantly below the seasonal average also suggests something different.

It has been said by others....but in blunt terms: put together a strongish MJO into the West Pacific in later February alongside a weaker than average vortex and it screams a cold March to me. Is this a surprise? 2013, 2018 - the 2 snowiest months in the last 10 years and both were March. Something in the climate connections seems to be working to give more blocked and cold ends to winter for the UK and the last snowy February seems (and was?) an age ago now. 

Next year is looking like a possible eQBO/Nino combo which should get the juices flowing. For this year another unremarkable February, certainly for the first half, before things move towards the end. Timing is always a pig - could a pattern shift occur in the final third of February? Yes - possible. But these things always seem to take longer than expected so my money would be on early March.

 

 

 

I wonder what the teleconnections thought of March 2006? 

That was a very cold March and very snowy but no beast from the East. 

[Stuie]

Don`t do FI, let alone this distance but the ECM does seem to be out on a limb VS the GFS and GEM.

[Battleground Snow]

A Few colder members showing on mogreps  around the 7th and 8th(no beast as of yet)

ECM Op was right at the top of the pack for the key 7th and 8th period 

Edited February 1, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Few colder members showing on mogreps  around the 7th and 8th(no beast as of yet)

ECM Op was right at the top of the pack for the key 7th and 8th period 

There is that Feb 6 juncture again.

[damianslaw]

Models showing a fairly quiet outlook for the time of year, mostly settled fine conditions further south as high pressure noses in, less so further north, but even here nothing particularly wet or windy - with weak atlantic frontal incursions. Very mild in the immediate with SW airstream, becoming chillier by Sunday as pull in slightly colder uppers behind a cold front with high pressure building in more solidly from the south to influence most of the UK.

GFS continues to show variance for next week, the 12z goes for a push of heights further NE and we draw in a chill continental flow, nothing very wintry (compared to the 6z at least), but cold all the same. UKMO and ECM not entertaining such an evolution, instead high pressure sits over the UK and to the south, nothing particularly cold on offer other than some light frost.

We have consensus and that is for high pressure to build in over the UK from the south - but then divergence just where it ends up. The Polar Vortex is very strong to the NW, and will continue to want to push the heights aside, but it seems to be struggling right now, and my expectation is for a sustained spell of quiet chilly weather, cold for a time but nothing severe, before the atlantic probably rides in and pushing heights away, but they will not go far, and another renewed push will commence quickly, with a greater chance as the month wears on they may well go further north to produce something more notably colder.

[Penrith Snow]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

ECM 144 contender for worst run so far?

Game over. GFS will continue to shift away from cold on the 18z. 

A lot of people are going to get buried in snow.

Unfortunately they are all Greek!

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Split ssw at the end of that gfs op btw 

Wasn’t actually a reversal - but it is a split ! 

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Good Evening, our forecasting agency has forecast heavy snowfall in Eastern Alps during Sunday followed by warning of bitter cold by Tuesday. I assume that ties in with the latest GFS out puts for the Low to drop down  over Germany later this weekend. The team, normally follow the ECM runs, so will be interested in the next run to see if that low features . Obviously , not sure how that will affect SE England at this stage.

C

Eps mean is very cold for Austria next week with temps 4 to 7 c below average