Model Output Discussion - Into February

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Operation backtrack starting?  Too early to confirm, but slight shift SE, only has to be slight to begin a snowball effect

 

BFTP

[I remember Atlantic 252]

22 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Any stats to back that up ?

No, but westerlies so much more common than E'lys at this time of year, and if it's UKMO and EC, showing W'lys and GFS. E'lys, then westerlies it will be, expect near a full backtrack on 12Z GFS towards the others

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Gfs 06 at t126/132 very similar to 00z, 00z I’d say slightly more robust.  Not a backtrack yet.  Considering the differences currently no point going beyond for any further clarity

 

BFTP

[seabreeze86]

GFS slowly correcting the high south on this run, will give it until the 12z before the towel goes in 

10% down to 3% chance now

[Met4Cast]

Definitely backtracking now, easterly is over Europe rather than into the UK with 850hPa far warmer than previous runs.

Would be quite chilly at the surface i'd imagine, but that's no beast from the east! The GFS has folded.

[Frosty_wsm]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Apologise for what, exactly? Not going into full-on ramp mode? 

Oh I dunno, things like accusing others of straw clutching just for posting gfs charts in a thread which is meant for such activity, stuff like that! 

I just find it fascinating watching how it all unfolds, which ever way it ends up playing out. 

[Ali1977]

Let’s see where this goes - it’s a backtrack but not a big one. GEFS May fall away , they’ll be interesting to see !! It’s a cold run on surface temps either way, just no snow !! 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Ali1977

[Guest]

GFS finally smelling the coffee, taken longer than expected but bulk of cold now over mainland Europe and even then it's not that cold:

 

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Let’s see where this goes - it’s a backtrack but not a big one. GEFS May fall away , they’ll be interesting to see 

It’s all about the pressure over Southern Europe the lower the better . Like you say it’s not a full backtrack but if the trend continues on the 12z then its over 

[Blizzardof82]

This thread could be so much better if the one upmanship and willy waving would stop, as far as I am aware this is the model output discussion thread where we discuss what the models are showing.

[danthetan]

I don't think you can say the GFS has backtracked it has the High in a different orientation over scandi so less colder comes around the SE flank and 144 hrs it's a variation on the drum it's keeps banging. Fascinating watching none the less. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Met4Cast]

Not quite done the backtrack in one full swing but that is a significant step towards the other models, the high is much further south and closer to the likes of the UKM/ECM. 

[booferking]

How's the beast from the east looking now guy's still on track?

[Ali1977]

We need some WAA here to stop putting pressure on the Scandy heights. It may be backtracking in the early stages, but has this period got a twist in its tail - Hp moving north and a north east feed. 

[supernova]

Lots of modelism permeating the thread (new woke word) before we even know the outcome. Chances are (statistically) the GFS's determination to bring a raging Easterly won't come to pass as all the other models prefer a more Atlantic driven and/or milder outcome to a lesser or greater extent. But even if the GFS is plumb wrong (and 06z so far looks like a move toward the other models' solutions may be in play) or has suffered periods of poor consistency since its latest upgrade, that doesn't make its output invalid on this or any other occasion. Surely the joy of model watching is the variation between outputs and the chase of something other than damp dross blowing our way? And think of this....if all the models were in agreement, what would be the point of this forum?! So I salute GFS and its steadfast need to give us hope - often the more interesting character in a room is the bonkers one that's prepared to stand out and be wrong! As for taking sides or, even worse, taking sides against those that took sides....well...often not really model related other than retrospective bragging rights for those who bet the right way. I only tend to read these posts if there's rational and scientific justification as to why a particular view on the output deserves any more support than another. Otherwise it's just playground banter and deservedly ignored!

[swebby]

1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

This thread could be so much better if the one upmanship and willy waving would stop, as far as I am aware this is the model output discussion thread where we discuss what the models are showing.

Yep, I think the fur/toys will be flying over the next few hours. Will come back this afternoon once it has settled down.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

How's the beast from the east looking now guy's still on track?

Just a one day slug from the south

[CoventryWeather]

And the GFS swaps - huge surprise there. 

Hopefully mid month will give some potential. 

[Purga]

At least we may get our own little cold pool over parts of the south

[mushymanrob]

Too many replies to shift through so apologies if this is repeated...

These charts do not support/allow a Scandinavian high, nor any Northern Blocking. So chances of a "beasterly" are imho extremely remote.

This suggests a rather benign, often grey, cold spell with temperatures hovering either side of zero, because that what we usually get with a slack continental flow in February. Theres no snow here, or not much other than the odd light flurry.. Despite the GFS being used as part of the blend, these chats dont support the GFS. But theres a deal of uncertainty.. who knows.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I wouldn’t call it a backtrack or a folding in, far from it.  There’s plenty to be played out here.  Mild Westerly it isn’t.  However, going back, the GFS yesterday showed a coldest possible run for UK….the fact it was that makes it more likely to be incorrect statistically.  So modifying expectations is to be the best bet.  The fact that there’s still a cold thrust on the 06z still keeps the strong easterly option in play. On to the 12s
 

BFTP

Edited February 2, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Crackerjack]

I’m going back to waiting for the full run to complete as I’ve just read in the last 10 minutes No backtrack, starting to backtrack and that’s it it’s over posts despite my age I’m still learning but not sure who in here are the teachers and who are the supply standins

[Ali1977]

Well it’s an obvious back track from full on easterlies, however if the backtrack stops here and this is the outcome - then the GFS has still modelled it better than the others. I suspect it’ll backtrack further on the 12z but if not, and the others are similar then the GFS will not deserve the hammering!! It just deserves a telling off for giving us coldies too much hope

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Yep, I think the fur/toys will be flying over the next few hours. Will come back this afternoon once it has settled down.

I reckon there will more willy waving lauding the GFS backtrack than toys being thrown - most on here now the drill, its all good sport and dont take it too seriously... you can learn just as much on human nature as you can weather nature on here

 

[Matt Jones]

To be fair many on here were talking of too much energy over the top and that's the most likely outcome from here, GFS was not really a million miles away just underestimated this. It's surely where a bit of human interpretation comes in, really we all knew the most likely outcome here unfortunately. Still hope further down the line.