Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Bricriu]

18 minutes ago, Don said:

I would certainly rather have snow in mid January but beggars can't be choosers in this country, especially these days!

If it's something exceptional like March 2013 or 2018 I will take it.   

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

Glad someone else looks at the CFS! Here it is for the 6th on it`s 1 month run.

Wow that's actually not bad 

[alexisj9]

55 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

anyone else fed up with the gfs yet..a couple days ago what it was showing for next week..that's now been all taken away!how can it be so bad?

I'm not sure it will be. Any other model showed the high where GFS has put it this time, is the low stronger than it is on other models, where it cuts off the high. If so it's probably another low that'll weaken at day three to four, changing the out put.

[alexisj9]

28 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

If it's something exceptional like March 2013 or 2018 I will take it.   

So will I as I missed it by 4 months, moved here in July 2013.

[Nick F]

Ironic that the UK's much closer to cold T850s (below -5C) coming from the west/northwest rather than from the east or southeast next Tuesday!

Edited February 2, 2023 by Nick F

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Nick F said:

Ironic that the UK's much closer to cold T850s (below -5C) coming from the northwest rather than from the east or southeast next Tuesday!

Hilarious that we've gone from the -15C isotherm over much of the UK on yesterdays run to that today! On the plus side at least we have some stratospheric developments to keep us busy in the coming weeks!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Hilarious that we've gone from the -15C isotherm over much of the UK on yesterdays run to that today! On the plus side at least we have some stratospheric developments to keep us busy in the coming weeks!

I don't think you've mentioned that today.

The block is even more robust on the 18z, 1050mb, a shame it's too far south by 500 miles

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I don't think you've mentioned that today.

The block is even more robust on the 18z, 1050mb, a shame it's too far south by 500 miles

Worth mentioning really, probably the biggest climb down we've seen from a model since December 2012 with "that ECM", certainly the biggest climb down of the last few years. 

My question is, why? What about the new update has changed that's causing this to happen. Third time this winter, I know the new update performs very slightly worse than the old version based on the verifications but it can't be that bad otherwise NOAA would have delayed it you'd have thought. 

What signal was the GFS det picking up on & running with that no other model did? If only we could know the answers to those questions, would vastly improve how we view the models next time something like this happens, always something new to learn!

Fascinating. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Met4Cast

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

How the hell can anyone take these charts seriously though.

Exactly , a total waste of time that far out , ok for 7 days but thereafter ................

[January Snowstorm]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Worth mentioning really, probably the biggest climb down we've seen from a model since December 2012 with "that ECM", certainly the biggest climb down of the last few years. 

My question is, why? What about the new update has changed that's causing this to happen. Third time this winter, I know the new update performs very slightly worse than the old version based on the verifications but it can't be that bad otherwise NOAA would have delayed it you'd have thought. 

What signal was the GFS det picking up on & running with that no other model did? If only we could know the answers to those questions, would vastly improve how we view the models next time something like this happens, always something new to learn!

Fascinating. 

When the gfs was running as the parallel it was obvious that it was going on wildly inaccurate runs. It was mentioned on here would its launch be delayed because of that! So it's no surprise that this has continued. The big question is why it's superiors allow it to continue when the old gfs was working fine. We have lost a valuable tool until its next update comes along!

18z rolling, all eyes on the strat for the moment 

[Gowon]

Here we go again - back to a quick colder solution again

 

[Battleground Snow]

15 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Worth mentioning really, probably the biggest climb down we've seen from a model since December 2012 with "that ECM", certainly the biggest climb down of the last few years. 

My question is, why? What about the new update has changed that's causing this to happen. Third time this winter, I know the new update performs very slightly worse than the old version based on the verifications but it can't be that bad otherwise NOAA would have delayed it you'd have thought. 

What signal was the GFS det picking up on & running with that no other model did? If only we could know the answers to those questions, would vastly improve how we view the models next time something like this happens, always something new to learn!

Fascinating. 

I'll give you the Greenland high December fiasco, but there has been more of a meeting in the middle in this scandi high attempt, which is still 4 days away btw 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[feb1991blizzard]

here she comes!

[Gowon]

Not very cold yet though

[Nick F]

Just now, Gowon said:

Here we go again - back to a quick colder solution again

 

Just can't take any cold option showing on GFS seriously anymore, unless the other models come on board. The paths and chases it leads us on have become tiresome now.

[Gowon]

Just now, Nick F said:

Just can't take any cold option showing on GFS seriously anymore, unless the other models come on board. The paths and chases it leads us on have become tiresome now.

I tottaly understand Nick but you never know

[Don]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

If it's something exceptional like March 2013 or 2018 I will take it.   

March 2018 delivered more snow IMBY than 2013, despite it being far less cold overall.

[Nick F]

10 minutes ago, Gowon said:

I tottaly understand Nick but you never know

It's hard not to be drawn in by the 18z GFS chart below for Valentine's Day, but it's GFS and past day 10, so a large pinch of salt required!

[IanT]

I’m not thinking about mid-March just yet..!

Reasonably blue here from Feb 6th to 12th:

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by IanT

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

It's hard not to be drawn in by the 18z GFS chart below for Valentine's Day, but it's GFS and past day 10, so a large pinch of salt required!

At least it’s trended to that solution in a similar way that gem did ….hence it has a modicum of attention ……

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It's hard not to be drawn in by the 18z GFS chart below for Valentine's Day, but it's GFS and past day 10, so a large pinch of salt required!

Great for snuggles 

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

Great for snuggles 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Get in there GFS!  No backing down….get in there

 

BFTP

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, IanT said:

I’m not thinking about mid-March just yet..!

Reasonably blue here from Feb 6th to 12th:

 

That's surface cold I think 

[Purga]

Take heed of the WHO.