Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I can have an extra hour snuggles as well as it's half term 

[feb1991blizzard]

for the SE & London this run would be up there with the greats.

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[BelgianBlizzard]

 

My God, gfs found another garden path...I can't believe I'm saying this, but you never know?

[IanT]

6 minutes ago, Gowon said:

That's surface cold I think 

Indeed. That’s where I tend to spend my time.

[Nick F]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

At least it’s trended to that solution in a similar way that gem did ….hence it has a modicum of attention ……

These are two models I wouldn't place my money on being right at day 10. But we are (mostly) on the hunt for deep cold and snow, so have to jump on what we can and hope it can, for once, work out. Never stop chasing, as Reed Timmer (the famous US storm chaser) always says ..

Edited February 2, 2023 by Nick F

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

for the SE & London this run would be up there with the greats.

 

Tbf the timing is better, but it's to far to look. Let's see if this one can make it down to t0

[Purga]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

for the SE & London this run would be up there with the greats.

 

Indeed

[Empire Of Snow]

The biggest issue is that GFS has lost all its remaining credibility. When you have hundreds of amateur meteorologists saying for 3 days that GFS will not 99.9% verify and the people running it don't care there's a big problem. Yes I know, GFS got right some of the features, but this is not enough. GFS is the "go to" model for many, especially the ones like me that have more than 20 years of model watching. It becomes a habit. 

That said, I'm almost really done with it. I'll keep studying it here and there but right now I'd rather watch CFS for fun. I don't also care about summer and if GFS verifies with the bloody African subtropical anticyclone. 

Sorry if it sounds like a rant but it isn't really. I'm just stating the facts. 

[Mark wheeler]

Yayyy , Just have to count down the days now .

[snowbob]

Well I for one am totally amazed that the gfs is going for it again 

@Met4Cast great commentary on models today really informative 

but am wondering if you had a sneaky fiver on gfs being wrong 

lol

[snowsummer]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

for the SE & London this run would be up there with the greats.

 

If at 1st you dont succeed....

[andymusic]

gfs 18z teases us again and the UK is all WHITE with a 2nd crack at an amazing easterly

[Purga]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

gfs 18z teases us again and the UK is all WHITE with a 2nd crack at an amazing easterly

Just my luck to be in Pembrokeshire !

[snowbob]

The gfs really not leaving this 

gonna be another 0z to see if there is any weight to this will it won’t it easterly 

Garden path 2

Edited February 2, 2023 by snowbob

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

for the SE & London this run would be up there with the greats.

 

Still unrealistic but perhaps more realistic than previous wild GFS runs which had a double anticyclonic Wavebreak (AWB) leading to a Greenland-Scandi double high at times, this one appears to be the single (just like me think the reason why is probably something to do with my love of tropospheric Eddy's) and perhaps more possible. Though I am still very much fearing that we will be led up a second garden path as I've only just realised the timeframe that it's at. I'm not going to look into how it came up with that product yet for reasons that I just mentioned. It's the pub run as well.

[Vikos]

good night my British friends

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

These are two models I wouldn't place my money on being right at day 10. But we are (mostly) on the hunt for deep cold and snow, so have to jump on what we can and hope it can, for once, work out. Never stop chasing, as Reed Timmer (the famous US storm chaser) always says ..

I’m looking at the Atlantic trough hitting the buffers and driving WAA (which is way more reasonable in cross model ens members than the past few days of the gfs).  Of course the development of the pub run beyond that is typically extreme 

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

does anyone have the latest strat info on the reversals on the 18z,spv looks to be diplaced to NE Canada again

the control run looks to be setting up for Greenland heights here at 192

and talking of Greenland heights the latest from NOAA shows this,...mmm!

are we looking at a new evolution here on the ext'd models?

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

good night my British friends

Yes, another split ssw later on - a little different to the 12z but it’s a split nonetheless 

[Don]

14 minutes ago, Purga said:

Indeed

A south east event that!

[ICE COLD]

-16 on the 18z . What a troll the gfs is . Might aswell post it don’t see it that often and it gets me all excited  

Edited February 2, 2023 by ICE COLD

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening all

does anyone have the latest strat info on the reversals on the 18z,spv looks to be diplaced to NE Canada again

the control run looks to be setting up for Greenland heights here at 192

and talking of Greenland heights the latest from NOAA shows this,...mmm!

are we looking at a new evolution here on the ext'd models?

[MP-R]

25 minutes ago, Purga said:

Indeed

Looks like a rainfall map for summer 2021!

[Allseasons-Si]

Here we go,...the control going for it just like the op,this would be more plausible evolution i think, @Kirkcaldy Weather showed us the phases and it ties in with this also with heights north of the UK around Griceland.

[feb1991blizzard]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

absolute belter that, this year has got a 2013 & 2018 signature written all over it in a big thick marker pen.