Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Gowon]

The JMA: There seems to be a signal for the two highs to link up after day 10? Each model has shown this route over the last couple of days now we just have to wait and see if it develops further.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Gowon
missing word

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think we must sit tight on the way forward.  There’s definitely something brewing.  With my look backs, solar/lunar similarities etc…..I think late Feb into March could rival any winter month.   HP positioning will be crucial….SSW…well something is going to ‘happen’ up there

 

 BFTP

[blizzard81]

Ecm mean looks more blocked from the east compared to the morning suite. I expect debilt to be colder. Less pressure from the north west. 

Edited February 3, 2023 by blizzard81

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

There are no rules I’m afraid Jacob 

one step at a time 

let’s get the ssw within day 10 and see where the vortex segments are likely to be and if it looks to downwell quickly  

At what point will we know if there is going to be a QTR, if it's possible to say?  (Assuming an SSW actually comes off)

Edited February 3, 2023 by Premier Neige

[bluearmy]

Eps mean is just reversed (tech ssw) between T336 and T354 

[bluearmy]

46 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

At what point will we know if there is going to be a QTR, if it's possible to say?  (Assuming an SSW actually comes off)

Just have to watch the runs and see what they are showing - if it looks like it’s happening then you’ll notice it on the NH charts - around 21st onwards   Im amending that to be earlier depending on whether the run shows a strong reversal - in the 10/15 day period. Imo,  the stronger and more sudden the reversal, the more likely it will head down into the trop. 

the other signature of a QTR (or downwelling wave) is for the blues and purples to unexpectedly drain from the NH charts. in the past we’ve seen both a n pacific ridge punch across the hemisphere and on other occasions the sudden draining of low heights across the polar field allowing HLB to establish ….

Edited February 3, 2023 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Eps mean is just reversed (tech ssw) between T336 and T354 

Only a displacement SSW though, was hoping for better tbh, it doesn't look all that much better than the last one, and that was a minor one.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Eps mean is just reversed (tech ssw) between T336 and T354 

Only a few days later than the BFTE then , Let’s hope that signal doesn’t fade and the QTR is quicker than in 2018 !! 
 

there’s a few interesting EC ENS members showing up at around T300 too 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only a displacement SSW though, was hoping for better tbh, it doesn't look all that much better than the last one, and that was a minor one.

Needs to do better is what you would write on the report?!!  Met Office outlooks are not hinting at anything out of the ordinary, but I guess it's too early.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Don

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only a displacement SSW though, was hoping for better tbh, it doesn't look all that much better than the last one, and that was a minor one.

That’s a mean of 51 members - there could be lots of variations in there. And it’s is reversed on the mean which makes it better than the last one. I don’t recall the spv mean predicted to be sitting above st Petersburg last time ……

[stodge]

Evening all

More fascinating model watching tonight. Even the emerging anticyclonic profile is still subject to change and perhaps there may be a stronger incursion of continental air into southern and south eastern Britain in the coming week.

It looks dry but that's a no-brainer with a 1040 MB regime in evidence.

Further on and we continue to see the longer range model (GFS) tease and tantalise with weakening 10 HPA profiles and the zonal wind clearly weakening. 

None of this guarantees anything and as we've seen before even an SSW is no guarantee of cold but anything which promotes amplification upstream is going to put us in the game if it turns out right and while I did hope mid-February would be the pattern change I think we are again looking at early March which as we know can certainly deliver in terms of cold and snow.

I don't know what's going to happen - as others have said, there are positive signs and we can but hope the elements to promote a cold spell fall into place at the right time in the right way.

[icykev]

This looks like it might be the beginning of a QTR to me, huge push of heights in the pacific incoming. Interesting heights into greenland too with the pv nearly entirely in Asia

Edited February 3, 2023 by icykev

[ricey076]

Apologies wrong discussion.. has anyone any info we’re Frosty.. a old time poster on here is ? 

[icykev]

Just now, ricey076 said:

Apologies wrong discussion.. has anyone any info we’re Frosty.. a old time poster on here is ? 

@Frosty.

[January Snowstorm]

I think the more experienced of us sense we are on the cusp of a special few weeks ahead.

As always things can go wrong but this could be the best warming since '18 and omg was that something here!!   

[Don]

3 minutes ago, ricey076 said:

Apologies wrong discussion.. has anyone any info we’re Frosty.. a old time poster on here is ? 

He posted on here the other day, so is about.

[Rain All Night]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I’m all in with P4 GEFS 12z… WOW Frosty, you’re as cold as ice!..you’re move mr bond!  

You seem to be in demand?!

[tight isobar]

24 minutes ago, icykev said:

This looks like it might be the beginning of a QTR to me, huge push of heights in the pacific incoming. Interesting heights into greenland too with the pv nearly entirely in Asia

Taking this ona RAW basis- it’s the clearest indication of a “ quick tropospheric response as you’ll see”!!! Itsa classic fold in dynamics!...away from this notion... the drill of polar continental incursion- is still worthy of watching.. nxt 5/8 days!!!

[legritter]

Hi gang , just posting to say brilliant forum and I'm still around but lurking in the shadows .still time to get a cold and snowy spell or snap .The northern hemisphere looks primed for newsworthy weather events ecm showing an angry north Atlantic and signs that a Ssw is fairly possible , the rest is down to Luck gang so the Hunt is on .and yes I've just had sausage baps the first in a while cheers gang Stella's on me . 

[Eagle Eye]

Polar Vortex is shrinking quickly on the forecasts and there's a large Baroclinic tilt especially the further up you go. Best indication I've seen of a potential split/major weakening yet but it's still just a forecast. The dynamical Tropopause linking up with the Strat Vortex appears to be ready for quite a large Wavebreaking event via Eddy's as mentioned in my post earlier but will it be enough for a major SSW? You really shouldn't ask me for that . I'll try and learn a bit more about fluid dynamics over the next few days to see if I can get any closer to the answer. By then the GFS will have gone off the signal won't it .

[RhHh]

Off topic perhaps but does anyone know if Punxatawny Phil saw a shadow yesterday?

[fromey]

4 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Off topic perhaps but does anyone know if Punxatawny Phil saw a shadow yesterday?

He saw a shadow, 6 more weeks of winter

[Mike Poole]

Snow into the SE at T192 on the pub run, courtesy of that convenient cold pool:

[andymusic]

11 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Off topic perhaps but does anyone know if Punxatawny Phil saw a shadow yesterday?

yes he did - 6 more weeks of winter lol

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

yes he did - 6 more weeks of winter lol

In America.... so mostly ongoing autum over here

Edited February 3, 2023 by Vikos