Model Output Discussion - Into February

[minus10]

Looking at Geps 6z and Eps 0z anomaly means t300 seems to show the transfer of the vortex to the east away from Greenland/Canada side if i am reading these charts correctly with lower than average hights our side...indeed it looks like it could be colder and unsettled..

...also noticeable the stronger high anomaly signal over the Aleutian side..does this tie in with the possible strat warming ?

[Frigid]

  

Yes its late into the season, but cold half to March possible.. i'll take it!

[CoventryWeather]

54 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There are several ENS showing this set up too
 

A few here 

Probably ties into the MJO lag. No expert into that though so sorry if it's wrong explanation.

 

Also an SSW later this month - no thanks - I want a nice warm spring.  

Edited February 4, 2023 by CoventryWeather
Info

[Ali1977]

Weather is cool

WEATHERISCOOL.COM

Back up to 52 percent chance of SSW 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Weather is cool

WEATHERISCOOL.COM

Back up to 52 percent chance of SSW 

Any splits in there?

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Weather is cool

WEATHERISCOOL.COM

Back up to 52 percent chance of SSW 

Looks like it's linked to GFS runs then, as last night's wasn't that good, but the 6z was, and it's reflected in the figures on this.

[Paul White.]

37 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Probably ties into the MJO lag. No expert into that though so sorry if it's wrong explanation.

 

Also an SSW later this month - no thanks - I want a nice warm spring.  

As for a mild spring “no thanks”Let’s hope the MJO lag and potential SSW delivers a freezing cold spring and early summer coolness. Can’t beat a white Easter with a big Cadbury Easter egg yum. 

[Ali1977]

19 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

As for a mild spring “no thanks”Let’s hope the MJO lag and potential SSW delivers a freezing cold spring and early summer coolness. Can’t beat a white Easter with a big Cadbury Easter egg yum. 

Agreed, some of the best snow events of recent years have been in March - those who chase snow could get exactly what they want IF an SSW falls right for the U.K. 

[Vikos]

56 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Weather is cool

WEATHERISCOOL.COM

Back up to 52 percent chance of SSW 

The SSW probability in GEFS is: 61%

 

you need to hit that F5-Button repeatedly these days 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Vikos said:

The SSW probability in GEFS is: 61%

 

you need to hit that F5-Button repeatedly these days 

Yep, this is a pretty convincing mean - not sure how to find out if any split though. 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, this is a pretty convincing mean - not sure how to find out if any split though. 

none according to yesterdays 0z GEFS, not sure when it updates and where you find ens members 21-30.

[Spah1]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Any splits in there?

 

[bluearmy]

gfs 06z op is the second consecutive run to flush down some westerlies which is evident as week 2 progresses with the tpv pretty solid  

[sw snow]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

gfs 06z op is the second consecutive run to flush down some westerlies which is evident as week 2 progresses with the tpv pretty solid  

And for the layman's such as I, the consequences are? Thanks in advance.

[Guest]

 The yawnfest continues!

Apart from the cold week in December and the few who were lucky enough to get some of the white stuff, this really has been one boring uneventful winter especially here in the East!

Here's to a Baltic March!

[Norrance]

19 minutes ago, sw snow said:

And for the layman's such as I, the consequences are? Thanks in advance.

Not good if you want cold as said cold will be bottled up North of the TPV

[Ali1977]

Day 10 is when the heights built through Greeny on the last Control run, let’s see if the op can do similar on this run or give us a huge PM kick start  - the strat is heating up earlier on this run too 

 

Day 11, much stronger than the 06z 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Decent FI charts there, im guessing that’s a split SSW!! I imagine we’ll start getting some crazy ENS here and there. 

[bluearmy]

34 minutes ago, sw snow said:

And for the layman's such as I, the consequences are? Thanks in advance.

it means the zonal flow in the trop will be stronger than average ……so it’s tough to get strong polar blocking until that dissipates in week 3. Of course it’s the gfs op so subject to much change 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Decent FI charts there, im guessing that’s a split SSW!! I imagine we’ll start getting some crazy ENS here and there. 

Looks stretched rather than split 

[minus10]

Colder and more unsettled as the main part of the trop vortex shifts  east..

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

it means the zonal flow in the trop will be stronger than average ……so it’s tough to get strong polar blocking until that dissipates in week 3. Of course it’s the gfs op so subject to much change 

So even though there’s a reversal at 10hpa level which occurs in about a week  the UK is feeding off scraps until those flushed down westerlies dissipate.

Jeez it really is like pulling teeth ! 

[Dancerwithwings]

3 hours ago, Paul White. said:

As for a mild spring “no thanks”Let’s hope the MJO lag and potential SSW delivers a freezing cold spring and early summer coolness. Can’t beat a white Easter with a big Cadbury Easter egg yum. 

YES…March 2013 comes to mind

[Ali1977]

It looks like the ENS are really starting to look at the idea of building heights in the Atlantic even by day 8, I wonder if a big pattern swing is coming quicker than expected !! 
A few of them here, let’s see if the ECM goes this way 

And the control 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So even though there’s a reversal at 10hpa level which occurs in about a week  the UK is feeding off scraps until those flushed down westerlies dissipate.

Jeez it really is like pulling teeth ! 

Patience required - we could be Marching towards record breaking cold.