Model Output Discussion - Into February

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Patience required - we could be Marching towards record breaking cold.

 At this point I’d be happy with a covering of snow ! Record breaking would have to go some to rival 2018 .

[johncam]

Could just as easily be mild , too far ahead to call and met not buying into anything cold 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 At this point I’d be happy with a covering of snow ! Record breaking would have to go some to rival 2018 .

Over here we just need to beat an inch of snow that fell in 2018!

[bluearmy]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So even though there’s a reversal at 10hpa level which occurs in about a week  the UK is feeding off scraps until those flushed down westerlies dissipate.

Jeez it really is like pulling teeth ! 

I doubt they’ll take long if they verify 

[Mike Poole]

Splat!

This one the reversal occurred at T288.  

I’m presuming the flush down of westerlies @bluearmy was referring to is still from the previous warming event as it is before this time.  It has been noticeable this morning on most models that the trop vortex is increased in strength over the next 10 days or so, and you’d expect this.  We want that out of the way so that the effect of the SSW can impact quickly.  

I wonder in the mean time, whether the UK high will hold or surrender - hopefully for a brief period - to wet and windy weather off the Atlantic?  I think I’d prefer some heights to remain in our locale to give the pattern change associated with the SSW (assuming it happens) a nudge in the right direction, if that makes sense.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

56 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

 The yawnfest continues!

Apart from the cold week in December and the few who were lucky enough to get some of the white stuff, this really has been one boring uneventful winter especially here in the East!

Here's to a Baltic March!

Even the Baltic countries look a lot milder than normal!

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This one the reversal occurred at T288.  

I’m presuming the flush down of westerlies @bluearmy was referring to is still from the previous warming event as it is before this time.  It has been noticeable this morning on most models that the trop vortex is increased in strength over the next 10 days or so, and you’d expect this.  We want that out of the way so that the effect of the SSW can impact quickly.  

I wonder in the mean time, whether the UK high will hold or surrender - hopefully for a brief period - to wet and windy weather off the Atlantic?  I think I’d prefer some heights to remain in our locale to give the pattern change associated with the SSW (assuming it happens) a nudge in the right direction, if that makes sense.

The westerlies are currently slightly above average higher up - as the new reversal takes shape: theses are forced down towards the lower strat and then into the trop as per the chart I posted. 

watch them on the 06z run here 

http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/EPflux.html

 

Edited February 4, 2023 by bluearmy

[Vikos]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Splat!

This one the reversal occurred at T288.  

I’m presuming the flush down of westerlies @bluearmy was referring to is still from the previous warming event as it is before this time.  It has been noticeable this morning on most models that the trop vortex is increased in strength over the next 10 days or so, and you’d expect this.  We want that out of the way so that the effect of the SSW can impact quickly.  

I wonder in the mean time, whether the UK high will hold or surrender - hopefully for a brief period - to wet and windy weather off the Atlantic?  I think I’d prefer some heights to remain in our locale to give the pattern change associated with the SSW (assuming it happens) a nudge in the right direction, if that makes sense.

Splat? Splat! Take your magnifying glasses and go for it

[Stuie]

Looking at the 7 day NAO, it is still heading towards neutral. There is definitely scatter after this into FI land.

 

Edit: 

 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Stuie W

[ANYWEATHER]

looks like some very low minima temperatures across Europe by next week....

[Stuie]

Perfect example of how colours do not tell the story, looks mild, it isn`t.

 

Edit: Seen another model show this route days ago...

Edited February 4, 2023 by Stuie W

[Daniel*]

A long run of frosty weather on ECM 12z at least it will feel like winter. With brighter days too. Last February I did not record a single air frost here in London, Docklands this will certainty not be a repeat of that. 

 

Later stage outputs interesting signs of trop vortex weakening somewhat. It’s quite probable the next chase is not far away. Perhaps the winter will leave the best to last? 

>

[Stuie]

27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A long run of frosty weather on ECM 12z at least it will feel like winter. With brighter days too. Last February I did not record a single air frost here in London, Docklands this will certainty not be a repeat of that. 

 

Later stage outputs interesting signs of trop vortex weakening somewhat. It’s quite probable the next chase is not far away. Perhaps the winter will leave the best to last? 

>

I can`t help thinking that if you throw enough SSW darts at a board, 1 must stick.

Edit: For the UK cold fans.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Stuie W

[minus10]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Meanwhile another week of air frosts in the south east  will make it about 25 to 30 airfrosts. Not to be sniffed at and its noticeable that the daffs and crocs are slower this year 

Although....here in wgc..

 

...re strat...

12z gefs 10 hpa mean wind just about zero to going negative from about 21st...

..10hpa temps showing kind of split at this time..

...could this be what the extended gfs op fi is picking up ..

...clear anomaly for low heights over our vicinity...still learning re strat matters so could be completely wrong however this drop in heights towards us has been signalled now for a while...

Edited February 4, 2023 by minus10

[bluearmy]

Eps mean shows a short lived ssw in the early T300’s which evolves into a similar picture to the gfs op by day 15

Having this broadly imprint into the trop late feb would be interesting …..

Edited February 4, 2023 by bluearmy

[Rob 79812010]

1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

I can`t help thinking that if you throw enough SSW darts at a board, 1 must stick.

Edit: For the UK cold fans.

They often do!!!

[Stravaiger]

Latest output all converging on the idea of lower heights moving into the UK from the NW in 8 or 9 days time. 
 

Atlantic feed so it won’t be cold, but close to average with plenty of snow over high ground in the north if it verifies.

The dream would be for this cool zonality to be pushed away by heights building out of the north as the forecast SSW perhaps takes hold.

Either way, after a pleasant, settled spell for the south of the UK, I’ll be ready for lower heights to return and cloak Scotland’s mountains in snow again

 

[Ali1977]

Weather is cool

WEATHERISCOOL.COM

58 percent now

[MP-R]

6 hours ago, nick sussex said:

So even though there’s a reversal at 10hpa level which occurs in about a week  the UK is feeding off scraps until those flushed down westerlies dissipate.

Jeez it really is like pulling teeth ! 

Isn't it just... with each passing week, my interest in cold lessens just that little bit more. We've had ample opportunity for some impressive weather but have largely missed out on both occasions, so I feel it'd have to be pretty spectacular to deliver even just a standard winter snowfall. Personally I'm hoping for a 2004 or 2005 scenario datewise. Get as much cold/snow out of the way in February/early March then the progression into spring takes place. As a weather enthusiast I like my seasons to be fairly on time.

Until that point, it really does look like a benign waiting game with a lot of high pressure influence until perhaps midmonth. Usable at least and I'll be glad to get out and about a lot more, on foot and by bike.

[bluearmy]

Gfs op high up offers continuity and fits with the eps mean …

looks like gfs thinks we need to get into week 3 (at least) to see anything in the trop.  We already see that gfs wants to flush down some westerlies which ensures that wait - geps and eps post T300 will enlighten us as to whether gem and ec agree. 

[damianslaw]

A case of watching high pressure do its business in the days ahead, the models are suggesting a bit of tussle between the atlantic and the high, westerlies trying there hardest to erode the high, but coming unstuck, indeed sign for some form of trough disruption, but not quite. Most likely scenario is for high pressure to either sink away to the SE, or become displaced SW something we have seen a fair bit this winter, this latter evolution may well be the eventual destination as the PV becomes stretched and recentres more east, an amplified flow again and we look to the north/north west for our weather mid month.

Edited February 4, 2023 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

Ensembles are rather like the climatological record of similar early Feb mild starts. I just posted a list of these in the Feb forecast contest. About five or six out of 24 (CET 8.0 or higher after 3rd) do bring in significant cold at mid-month. Most of the rest stay mild or near average.

The best outcome from such a mild start would be 1985 which had a long subzero streak 9th-19th. The worst outcome (for cold) would be 1869 which started mild and turned milder, stayed mild. More recently 2017 had a similar start, a rather subdued cool spell and back to very mild by 20th. 

I've been watching this Russian high for forecasting interests and basically most of the guidance over recent few days has tended to bring the cold too far south to become "in play" for Britain, the cold on offer is basically just radiational cooling in the ridge that forms between the Russian high and the next Atlantic high replacing the current one. That could lead to some quite cold nights in southeast England and perhaps into parts of the Midlands but daytime readings would likely recover to near normal values and the means are not likely to drop very far below 5 C in that evolution. I do agree that very late Feb or March could offer better chances for wintry outcomes. 

[Vikos]

Never have seen a pattern like this before 

[bluearmy]

One thing that has been forgotten is that the models weren’t so great more than a few days ahead of the late  jan weakening and polar upper strat reversal. So we may have to wait until next weekend before having much confidence in what we’re looking at 

[minus10]

Well unlike last night the 18z gefs are trending quite a lot milder upto 14th..

...so..dont know what to think..