Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

In a word, no. Things haven’t come together as expected and instead it seems mid-latitude blocking is more likely vs high latitude. 

My idea of a colder/blocked mid-2nd half of February looks dead in the water now. 

Thanks, not what I wanted to hear but expected that to be the case!

[feb1991blizzard]

37 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

In a word, no. Things haven’t come together as expected and instead it seems mid-latitude blocking is more likely vs high latitude. 

My idea of a colder/blocked mid-2nd half of February looks dead in the water now. 

It might just be delayed to early March.

[bluearmy]

Assume this run will show a weaker lower strat and trop flow in the 12/14 day period. would be a nice trend to see with a trop response pretty immediate 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Assume this run will show a weaker lower strat and trop flow in the 12/14 day period. would be a nice trend to see with a trop response pretty immediate 

Looks to me like a shades of 18 - is it not a displacement wave 1 downwelling with a wave 2 upwelling?

 

[bluearmy]

one for the list of charts you don’t recall ever seeing before …..

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by bluearmy

[Don]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might just be delayed to early March.

Could well be but always a bit of a bad sign when cold potential is pushed back!

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

From what I’ve read in the past week, the events of Jan have primed the polar vortex for absorbing vertical wave activity flux and taking a big hit.

The trouble for those seeking cold UK weather as a result this side of end Feb / early March is that any resulting SSW looks to be a displacement type.

Even if the majority vote outcome for where it displaces to - Scandinavia - comes about, the typical time taken for displacement-driven anomalies to propagate down to the troposphere is 2-4 weeks.

By then we should be seeing AAM reaching positive territory with GWO in phases 5-6. That’s usually conducive to strong high pressure slowly retrograding from Europe to the Atlantic at the mid-latitudes, but *if* there has been a zonal wind reversal and that propagates down as the MJO reaches phase 6, then we could see more of a high latitude block take shape. 

This, however, would mean an extended winter, delaying spring. Some would enjoy that but a larger number wouldn’t when compared to such events playing out in late Jan or early Feb.

 

Im not convinced by recent ECM runs suppressing and retrograding the subtropical high so much. Where does the forcing come from to drive such alignment with the stratospheric pattern so soon?

Likely why the CFS has been seeing April as a notably cold month recently over March.

This one is at the end of March...would have been nice mid Jan!

Oh btw here is the latest EC seasonal anomaly for spring

Looks to me like it's seeing at least one month in there with a significant Greenland blocking signal

Edited February 6, 2023 by CreweCold

[Don]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This one is at the end of March...would have been nice mid Jan!

How many times has this been said in recent years?!

[MP-R]

29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Likely why the CFS has been seeing April as a notably cold month recently over March.

This one is at the end of March...would have been nice mid Jan!

Oh btw here is the latest EC seasonal anomaly for spring

Looks to me like it's seeing at least one month in there with a significant Greenland blocking signal

That spells a very wet spring if charts like that become reality. Cold too. Yuck!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 02/02/2023 at 17:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Thought I'd revisit my previous outlook and do my next where I believe we will be headed

Really happy with how that outlook has played out and decent on the dates too

As we see the MJO phase 3 now extending into February here's where I'd expect to be by approx 15th Feb, Note the switch from higher to lower pressure near the Eastern Seaboard and the lower pressure in Greenland transitioning to higher heights 

 

Likely to continue to see Tropical Cyclone development across the Indian Ocean 

Roughly another week in phase 3 though the JMA is still persisting on an even further extention. 

 

 

 

CFS week 2 starting to piece together one of the composites for phase 3

And an active Indian ocean continues 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Genuine distance between vortices with proper ridge in the right place.

 

Caveat to this is it does have the hallmarks of the 2019 event, and we know what happened, wonder if the Met Office and other long ranger telecons gurus in here think there'll be a blocker from it downwelling and that's why they are playing it down.

Edited February 6, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Guest]

10 hours ago, SLEETY said:

So your basically saying dont believe the gfs if its showing cold in the ensembles but believe it if its trending mild in the ensembles like it is now,and you are,how silly....

No, that’s not what I said. I said the cold was never supported by its ensembles and therefore never should have been assumed to be a probable outcome.  

[KTtom]

Ukmo 144... Spring has come early..

 

[Tills]

5 hours ago, skifreak said:

Some serious pish gets posted in this thread.  

I looked on this thread and was as surprised as you. It is only 2 weeks since huge swathes of the west of Britain were under severe flooding from that "dead" Atlantic. Also I was up in the North-West during a recent gale when it blew a hoolie. The first half of January was incredibly wet and that didn't come from the east.

If you look at the charts right now the Atlantic is still far from shut down if you are in the North-West of Britain. There is a high cell over southern Britain but that is getting moved east too with mild south-westerlies coming up the west side and around the top.

[SLEETY]

It rained  nearly every day here from mid-december to mid-january,before drying out,so this dryer spell is very welcome.

Looks like turning very much milder by end of week,but after that could become interesting.

[Mucka]

failed easterly model re-analysis

The top chart for each is what the actual chart will look like for tomorrow Feb 7th and the charts below are the archived charts from Feb 3rd on to the 6th for each.

I would say ECM is probably closest, then UKMO, then GFS though ECM and UKMO moved a little to GFS and GFS vice versa.

The reason GFS got it wrong and had the more amplified patter is because it had the Euro trough undercutting back W propping up the high and brining in continental flow.

We can see that neither ECM or UKMO went for this and had more forcing from the W flow although they slightly overdid it.

Others may have a different opinion but the  Euro heights are the most notable difference.

GFS 00z

 

ECM 00z

 

UKMO 00z

Edited February 6, 2023 by Mucka

[Vikos]

No downwelling, 30hpa is the limit 

where it stalls. Dropped to 52% from 90 yesterday. 
I feel like I’m fooled once again by gfs. If EC doesn’t confirm the (possible) mw with the updated zonal wind chart later today… well gfs is for the  

[Weather-history]

ECM 0z and GFS 0z out are bone dry going into the second half of February for many parts 

[bluearmy]

as per the 18z, the 00z also downwells the weaker zonal flow towards the trop at 10hpa - remember, this is the gfs op out to day 16 so expecting it to have the detail correct as the run goes on, especially lower down in the strat is unlikely (although NH zonal flow is not the same as detailed heights ) 

the point is that for two runs we have more of an impending connect with a weaker strat heading down 
 

[Gowon]

The block is proving to be solid this morning with no low pressure over us at day 10 now on the ECM.

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Oh btw here is the latest EC seasonal anomaly for spring

Looks to me like it's seeing at least one month in there with a significant Greenland blocking signal

March and April are both (march also has a strong euro trough ) 

[Nick2373]

 

00z if its dry and overcast you like this is the output for you this morning, way above average well at least its dry or now. I'll be the first to say it  if only it was July lol. 

[Purga]

Pretty conclusive ENS - Mild all the way to the bank.

And ECMF surely trending the same.

[Penrith Snow]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Could well be but always a bit of a bad sign when cold potential is pushed back!

It's not going to happen in the next few weeks so let's push it back till December!

My favourite month for cold

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

No downwelling, 30hpa is the limit 

where it stalls. Dropped to 52% from 90 yesterday. 
I feel like I’m fooled once again by gfs. If EC doesn’t confirm the (possible) mw with the updated zonal wind chart later today… well gfs is for the  

That 52% was the 18z.  Must admit, i thought it had gone west!  Back to 84% on GEFS on the 0z.

And a much stronger warming with a split on the 0z op, with reversal at T240 - at this point we’d be reaching for the Berlin site to see what the ECM op is showing, but sadly it’s not available this year.  (It’s a bit shaky trusting the ensembles of either model due to lower resolution.)

Edited February 6, 2023 by Mike Poole