Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Vikos]

24 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It's a classic English metaphor meaning an incentive to keep moving forward to reach the carrot (in this case an SSW)

 

I know hahaha. This is the alive version of my avatar

have a good one

[Rain All Night]

34 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Carrot on a stick? What do you mean?

Zuckerbrot und Peitsche!

EDIT: How did none of us notice your avatar? LOL

Edited February 6, 2023 by RainAllNight

[nick sussex]

Horrible model consistency !

Its just relentless dirge at the moment for coldies .

All hopes now rest with the SSW and realistically it’s not till the end of the month and early March before we might see something of interest .

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Horrible model consistency !

Its just relentless dirge at the moment for coldies .

All hopes now rest with the SSW and realistically it’s not till the end of the month and early March before we might see something of interest .

 

Indeed Nick. The only crumb of comfort is the dry outlook. Don't want a wet Feb. 

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed Nick. The only crumb of comfort is the dry outlook. Don't want a wet Feb. 

Yes better to be dry and mild rather than lashing wind and rain.

I know patience is wearing very thin but we have to hope that we could see something later in the month.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Yes better to be dry and mild rather than lashing wind and rain.

I know patience is wearing very thin but we have to hope that we could see something later in the month.

The cold will come in March April most likely.

The hallmark of ( another) + NAO winter.

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The cold will come in March April most likely.

The hallmark of ( another) + NAO winter.

I’m not a fan of cold springs . Especially when the perfect winter synoptics turn up and you’re left with the “ if only it was a month earlier “ .

 

[January Snowstorm]

For those worried about March being too late google storm emma Ireland back in '18. An extraordinary event, granted it was 1st March but it closed much of Ireland for about 3 days with red warnings for snow!! It can happen again, be disruptive and also magical well into March.....now what's that noise I hear oh yeah drip drip  

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m not a fan of cold springs . Especially when the perfect winter synoptics turn up and you’re left with the “ if only it was a month earlier “ .

 

Id rather have Greenland highs mid Spring to mid Autumn and Scandinavian Blocking end Autumn to beginning Spring.

[Stephen W]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm ECM has changed its mind now showing the high pressure much more resilient in line with the GFS and despite a strong robust PV to the north, for some reason it can't seem to imprint on the UK, this has been the main feature of winter 22-23, just when there are signs the atlantic is about to go on full charge it is blocked from doing so.

Given the outlook, southern parts of the UK will be about to endure a very barren dry 4 week period rainfall wise.. even further north not much rain on the horizon after a preety dry 3 weeks now.

Watching the synoptics at the moment I think of the Kylie Minogue song 'Im spinning around' - to describe the high pressure that has been close to or over our shores all winter it seems..  the next line ' move out of my way' - its speaking to the atlantic... ha ha.. it is also reminding me of watching washing spinning around on a slow cycle in the washing machine or tumble drier. This winter is feeling like a film on slow motion and little action..

I am liking the Kylie analogy! We seem to be traversing the high pressures, ie just going round and round. Model output has been like watching paint dry since New Year.  And, I agree re rainfall. Whilst many have yearned for a dry spell, we do actually still need rain given the severe lack of it this last 12 months. It’s only panning out average this winter so far for many parts of the UK and so likely to be below when we’re done with February.

I’d actually just like some variety, snow preferably but that’s not looking likely this month. A bit of wind and rain wouldn’t go amiss as long as we don’t get weeks of it. These blocked patterns of nothingness are just monotonous. Whilst I read with interest what’s happening in the strat, there seems little manifestation in long term model output at present.

 

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The cold will come in March April most likely.

The hallmark of ( another) + NAO winter.

The NAO is simply a difference in pressure between the Azores and Iceland - +NAO is higher pressure over the Azores and lower over Iceland.  A -NAO is the reverse - high pressure over Iceland and lower pressure over the Azores.  

A -NAO is by no guarantee of colder conditions for the UK - you could have a -NAO but be more west based and the UK left on the milder side, or a high over Europe but low pressure over the Azores with the UK left on the milder side.  Even with a -NAO, everything still has to fall favourably to get the cold air into the UK.

On the other hand, a +NAO usually leads to milder conditions in the UK during the winter months, but although it unfortunately rarely happens at least now and in the last 35 years, it is still possible to have a +NAO and get some colder air into the UK - you could have higher pressure over the Azores but a bit further west, and low pressure over Iceland and have the jetstream tracking NW-SE, which would be cold polar maritime zonality - the best example above all others that I can think of is January 1984, but in recent years I can think of less impressive examples in mid to late January 2015, and in mid-January 2018, where in a +NAO setup colder polar maritime air fed into the UK.

Winter 2022-23 so far looked to promise so much at the start, at least compared to recent years anyway, with a potent 11 day cold spell in December, but when this broke just after mid-December, the rest of this winter so far has produced little in the way of significant cold outbreaks, with just a week or so that was colder (but nothing overly dramatic) just after mid-January.  If the rest of this month and even into early March does not deliver something from a cold perspective, then I think that winter 2022-23 could in some ways be seen as a pear shaped winter, joining the list of the likes of 2010-11, 1996-97, 1981-82, that were cold early on but went downhill and were followed by next to nothing, albeit with a shorter cold spell to begin with, meaning that 2022-23 could turn into a less extreme version of a pear shaped winter than the others above.

There is still time for a spell of colder weather to show up (whether that be significant / intense or modest / less dramatic) before this month is out, but if we are to see any chance of that, we would need to see it appearing in the computer models soon.  I think that if a cold spell did materialize before the month is out, then I think that winter 2022-23 could still be seen as a fairly average winter, but if this month does not deliver anything from a cold perspective, then winter 2022-23 will really go down as a pear shaped winter, although not as cold to begin with as 2010-11, 1996-97 and 1981-82.

For winter 2022-23 to be the coldest winter since 2012-13; I think that February needs a CET of 4.3 or lower to beat winter 2017-18, and to get a winter CET similar to something like the average 2005-06 winter, I believe that February would need a CET of something like 3.8.  For winter 2022-23's CET to beat winter 2012-13, then the February CET would need to be 2.8 or below, which is now very unlikely.  A CET for this February that is anything above 4.4 will mean that winter 2022-23 is milder than 2017-18 (which is so far the coldest winter since 2012-13).

Edited February 6, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Stephen W said:

I am liking the Kylie analogy! We seem to be traversing the high pressures, ie just going round and round. Model output has been like watching paint dry since New Year.  And, I agree re rainfall. Whilst many have yearned for a dry spell, we do actually still need rain given the severe lack of it this last 12 months. It’s only panning out average this winter so far for many parts of the UK and so likely to be below when we’re done with February.

I’d actually just like some variety, snow preferably but that’s not looking likely this month. A bit of wind and rain wouldn’t go amiss as long as we don’t get weeks of it. These blocked patterns of nothingness are just monotonous. Whilst I read with interest what’s happening in the strat, there seems little manifestation in long term model output at present.

 

 

It may not do for a while yet, maybe a week, although i think it will do shortly, it will be wrong and the cold will keep getting delayed but eventually verify, similar to 2018, not saying it will be as spectacular mind you

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The NAO is simply a difference in pressure between the Azores and Iceland - +NAO is higher pressure over the Azores and lower over Iceland.  A -NAO is the reverse - high pressure over Iceland and lower pressure over the Azores.  

A -NAO is by no guarantee of colder conditions for the UK - you could have a -NAO but be more west based and the UK left on the milder side, or a high over Europe but low pressure over the Azores with the UK left on the milder side.  Even with a -NAO, everything still has to fall favourably to get the cold air into the UK.

On the other hand, a +NAO usually leads to milder conditions in the UK during the winter months, but although it unfortunately rarely happens at least now and in the last 35 years, it is still possible to have a +NAO and get some colder air into the UK - you could have higher pressure over the Azores but a bit further west, and low pressure over Iceland and have the jetstream tracking NW-SE, which would be cold polar maritime zonality - the best example above all others that I can think of is January 1984, but in recent years I can think of less impressive examples in mid to late January 2015, and in mid-January 2018, where in a +NAO setup colder polar maritime air fed into the UK.

Winter 2022-23 so far looked to promise so much at the start, with a potent 11 day cold spell in December, but when this broke just after mid-December, the rest of this winter so far has produced little in the way of significant cold outbreaks, with just a week or so that was colder (but nothing overly dramatic) just after mid-January.  If the rest of this month and even into early March does not deliver something from a cold perspective, then I think that winter 2022-23 could in some ways be seen as a pear shaped winter, joining the list of the likes of 2010-11, 1996-97, 1981-82, that were cold early on but went downhill and were followed by next to nothing, albeit with a shorter cold spell to begin with, meaning that 2022-23 could turn into a less extreme version of a pear shaped winter than the others above.

With respect mate, this winter should not be mentioned anywhere near the same breath as 2 of those winters you listed. This has been the Diet Coke, caffeine free, no taste version of 81-82 and 2010-11. If winters were similar to those 2 every year, that'd be great. I'd love a frigid Dec 1981 or 2010 and/or a Jan 1982 every year if it meant sacrificing Feb

This year, well, it looks like we're sacrificing Feb anyway but without the pay off of a special December and/or January

[Vikos]

eps goes ssw

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

eps goes ssw

Pretty solid prediction and the recovery shows nothing more than 5 to 10 m/s thereafter = the end of the spv for the winter 

looks like around 15/20% of the runs see a large reversal reflective of a split 

Edited February 6, 2023 by bluearmy

[SqueakheartLW]

7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

eps goes ssw

Guess it has joined the GEFS SSW party then

[North-Easterly Blast]

22 minutes ago, LRD said:

With respect mate, this winter should not be mentioned anywhere near the same breath as 2 of those winters you listed. This has been the Diet Coke, caffeine free, no taste version of 81-82 and 2010-11. If winters were similar to those 2 every year, that'd be great. I'd love a frigid Dec 1981 or 2010 and/or a Jan 1982 every year if it meant sacrificing Feb

This year, well, it looks like we're sacrificing Feb anyway but without the pay off of a special December and/or January

What I meant to say was that, I acknowledge that the cold spell in December of this winter was nowhere near on the same scale or longevity as December 2010 / 1981, or the one in late Dec 1996 / early Jan 1997, but if the rest of winter 2022-23 does not deliver anything from a cold perspective, then winter 2022-23 will go down as a less extreme example of a pear shaped winter (a winter having a much shorter and less intense early cold spell that deteriorated into nothing) than 1981-82, 1996-97 and 2010-11.

You never know, February 2005 is one example that I can think of where the second half of February did deliver a pattern change to a cold spell of weather after limited cold in January and the first half of February, though I cannot think of any examples since 2005.

As posted above, this February only needs a CET of 4.3 or less to make this the coldest winter since 2012-13, and if we can manage to achieve that, then although winter 2022-23 will not be particularly cold overall, it will still be seen as an improvement on recent years if it can still manage to be the coldest winter in ten years.

Edited February 6, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 is a corker and totally in line with expectation.

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is a corker and totally in line with expectation.

What period is that for, feb?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Gowon said:

What period is that for, feb?

6th to 13th March.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

My goodness, it's as exciting as watching paint dry flicking through each model run through the end at the moment. +heights over Europe, low heights to the northwest.

It's a good job we have the carrot at the end of the stick of the likely major SSW mid-month, but at the moment it looks like a displacement rather than split. February with a displacement since 1980: 28/1980; 23/1984; 17/2002; 23/2007; 22/2008. 1981 and 1984 both featured a cold March, 1984 was cold late in Feb via easterlies. But those other years with Feb displacements there was nothing of note. So don't pin your hopes that the SSW will deliver cold and snow, especially if a displacement.

March and April 2008 featured cold spells, with a white early Easter for a fair number of places.

[Allseasons-Si]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is a corker and totally in line with expectation.

Looks like the heights retrogress westwards in time...great charts them

Ooh!!!,...and i like the look of this, a brief zonal pattern(blue) to blocked(red) for the foreseable.

had to edit: sorry the charts looked s***e then.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

 

That Feb chart for MJO composites is more likely to verify in March i think.

[Hotspur62]

Seems to be a growing trend that a SSS will happen but it will probably be later than 2018 so rather late feb/early march it is more likely to be early mid March before the effects(if they do even happen) could occur.From a cold perspective it will certainly favour midlands northwards and elevation will obviously play a factor.For the south I think it would most likely be a wintry mess and most likely cold rain away from areas of 150m asl.In the meantime the models are pretty set in stone for dry weather for next 7 days for most of the U.K. and temperatures above average so everyone get outside and enjoy this beautiful country of ours