Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

"Cautionary note...that the gfs seems to be on the extreme end of ensemble solutions however"..

......doesnt it always..

....the Icon still holding the flag for day 8 nw trough incursion...

 

GFS is having a go too 

[Methuselah]

IMO, it's still far too early to call a Code Blue on this winter... It mightn't even need a shot of epinephrine?

[feb1991blizzard]

36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, we have an upgrade of sorts  on the METO long range , with a small but increasing chance of some colder conditions Sounds like the reversal is on, obviously this is just highlighting the chance of it effecting us of course. 

 

Best news all day , hoping something kicks in earlier than expected though as beyond the second week of March becomes harder for “big freeze” type set ups,  and even I’ll be ready for some warmth by mid March!! 
 

What’s the quickest we could hope for some implications if the reversal happens 14-17 Feb? In February still? If things fall right? Will the MJO heading through 4/5/6 help, even an a pretty low amplitude? 

the feb1991blizzard opinions are starting to manifest themselves in the outlook.

Edited February 6, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the feb1991blizzard opinions are starting to manifest themselves in the outlook.

How do you think this will pan out, Feb?  Now that the warming event is 10 days away, I’d be inclined to put a little more faith in the op runs v the ensembles, and the last two have shown a more interesting warming, I think.  That’s just GFS of course.  

[Allseasons-Si]

53 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, we have an upgrade of sorts  on the METO long range , with a small but increasing chance of some colder conditions Sounds like the reversal is on, obviously this is just highlighting the chance of it effecting us of course. 

 

Best news all day , hoping something kicks in earlier than expected though as beyond the second week of March becomes harder for “big freeze” type set ups,  and even I’ll be ready for some warmth by mid March!! 
 

What’s the quickest we could hope for some implications if the reversal happens 14-17 Feb? In February still? If things fall right? Will the MJO heading through 4/5/6 help, even an a pretty low amplitude? 

Sorry for my post as i seemed to quote and post without saying nothing ha ha!

increasing chance sounds good to me

the gfs is more amplified than the 06z...

Edited February 6, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

PV disruption earlier on this run, day 12 and it’s destroyed 

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

How do you think this will pan out, Feb?  Now that the warming event is 10 days away, I’d be inclined to put a little more faith in the op runs v the ensembles, and the last two have shown a more interesting warming, I think.  That’s just GFS of course.  

Well i still think we could do with a split, however, its so late in season, the weaker upper and middle strat Westerlies (Easterlies if tech SSW) might do the trick, look how the winter has panned out so far, yes its been crap but every time the trop PV has looked like it will dominate the rest of winter, there has always been a change in modelling to prevent it in time (in a nina year), i never worry about that, i doubt there has ever been a nina winter where the GWO hasn't transitioned to a high numbered phase at some point, all its got to do once the SSW kicks in is do it at some point in March.

And in March how often do you go through March without seeing a Meridional Jet at some point, regardless of teleconnections.

Edited February 6, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[damianslaw]

Mmm ECM has changed its mind now showing the high pressure much more resilient in line with the GFS and despite a strong robust PV to the north, for some reason it can't seem to imprint on the UK, this has been the main feature of winter 22-23, just when there are signs the atlantic is about to go on full charge it is blocked from doing so.

Given the outlook, southern parts of the UK will be about to endure a very barren dry 4 week period rainfall wise.. even further north not much rain on the horizon after a preety dry 3 weeks now.

Watching the synoptics at the moment I think of the Kylie Minogue song 'Im spinning around' - to describe the high pressure that has been close to or over our shores all winter it seems..  the next line ' move out of my way' - its speaking to the atlantic... ha ha.. it is also reminding me of watching washing spinning around on a slow cycle in the washing machine or tumble drier. This winter is feeling like a film on slow motion and little action..

Edited February 6, 2023 by damianslaw

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Stravaiger said:

Cheers Mushy...who creates these anomaly charts? Are they not a composite of model output?

 

The NOAA, and are a blend of the GFS, ECM and CMC ops and ensembles.

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Watching the synoptics at the moment I think of the Kylie Minogue song 'Im spinning around'

I think we could be friends 

[minus10]

We still dont want to see the vortex here ....do we???

 

[geordiekev]

39 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm ECM has changed its mind now showing the high pressure much more resilient in line with the GFS and despite a strong robust PV to the north, for some reason it can't seem to imprint on the UK, this has been the main feature of winter 22-23, just when there are signs the atlantic is about to go on full charge it is blocked from doing so.

Given the outlook, southern parts of the UK will be about to endure a very barren dry 4 week period rainfall wise.. even further north not much rain on the horizon after a preety dry 3 weeks now.

Watching the synoptics at the moment I think of the Kylie Minogue song 'Im spinning around' - to describe the high pressure that has been close to or over our shores all winter it seems..  the next line ' move out of my way' - its speaking to the atlantic... ha ha.. it is also reminding me of watching washing spinning around on a slow cycle in the washing machine or tumble drier. This winter is feeling like a film on slow motion and little action..

They say time goes slower next to a black hole. Really is amazing the lack of storms both this season and last. That is some anomoly over us atm

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, geordiekev said:

They say time goes slower next to a black hole. Really is amazing the lack of storms both this season and last. That is some anomoly over us atm

But beware of spaghettification... It could be a bit of a stretch!

[minus10]

Higher! Higher!

[Nick F]

23 minutes ago, minus10 said:

We still dont want to see the vortex here ....do we???

 

My goodness, it's as exciting as watching paint dry flicking through each model run through the end at the moment. +heights over Europe, low heights to the northwest.

It's a good job we have the carrot at the end of the stick of the likely major SSW mid-month, but at the moment it looks like a displacement rather than split. February with a displacement since 1980: 28/1980; 23/1984; 17/2002; 23/2007; 22/2008. 1981 and 1984 both featured a cold March, 1984 was cold late in Feb via easterlies. But those other years with Feb displacements there was nothing of note. So don't pin your hopes that the SSW will deliver cold and snow, especially if a displacement.

[Stuie]

10 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Higher! Higher!

The scatter at the end is +7/-10 - that`s bizarre.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

PV disruption earlier on this run, day 12 and it’s destroyed 

The tech ssw on this run is very slight and lasts for 36 hours T240-T276 - temps are not indicators of heights 

until we see the cross sectional, we can deduce little 

Edited February 6, 2023 by bluearmy

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

My goodness, it's as exciting as watching paint dry flicking through each model run through the end at the moment. +heights over Europe, low heights to the northwest.

It's a good job we have the carrot at the end of the stick of the likely major SSW mid-month, but at the moment it looks like a displacement rather than split. February with a displacement since 1980: 28/1980; 23/1984; 17/2002; 23/2007; 22/2008. 1981 and 1984 both featured a cold March, 1984 was cold late in Feb via easterlies. But those other years with Feb displacements there was nothing of note. So don't pin your hopes that the SSW will deliver cold and snow, especially if a displacement.

Carrot on a stick? What do you mean?

[Mandy Orme]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

The current charts are suggesting it might be mild next week, but not 20c.. thats unrealistic at this range imho

No charts are going out to March just yet, only some extended Anomaly charts and at this range are highly uncertain.

There MIGHT be a cold spell, IF, we geta SSW that delivers... many dont, like in 2019, instead we had record breaking warmth in February.

Ahhh I see , thank you for taking the time to explain.

 

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Carrot on a stick? What do you mean?

It's a classic English metaphor meaning an incentive to keep moving forward to reach the carrot (in this case an SSW)

 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Carrot on a stick? What do you mean?

Carrot and stick - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Just now, Nick F said:

It's a classic English metaphor meaning an incentive to keep moving forward to reach the carrot (in this case an SSW)

 

And ironically your photo provides the donkey ……. Now to find a tail …..

[Eagle Eye]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

My goodness, it's as exciting as watching paint dry flicking through each model run through the end at the moment. 

I love the paint drying world championships, best few days of my life before the pandemic ruined them . I don't mind waiting for the models when they're slow changers as it means I can actually think about how exactly this is occurring and what the chances are though even for me this is tedious.

[bluearmy]

It looks like the reversal high up is the 14th. Based on late jan, the modelling may not be very reliable re any pacific ridge response until around the 10/11th. 

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I love the paint drying world championships, best few days of my life before the pandemic ruined them . I don't mind waiting for the models when they're slow changers as it means I can actually think about how exactly this is occurring and what the chances are though even for me this is tedious.

It will liven up in the model output for the troposphere in week or two I reckon, not just from possible effects of the SSW, but also the MJO moving into the western Pacific and the rise in AAM. At the moment it looks like classic La Nina / MJO 'warmer phases' driving the show in the model output for the trop.

[Cloud 10]

Random spot check on "how the models did"from 7 days ago...

 

Today's chart,then GFS,GEM,UKMO and ECM from this time last week.