Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

it is going to be a while before the models will get to grips with the ssw that has not even happened yet so a little patience is involved here

just looking at the ECM at day ten,i think that there is a little bit of interest here with heights in the Atlantic and a low in Iberia,i had matched this with the cfs from this morning and take a look at what happens on this run

 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle à très long terme CFS (Climate Forecast System) jusqu'à neuf mois de la NOAA/NCEP

of course it's the cfs but i would be inclined to see what happens in the models over the next few days to see if they come up with a similar evolution,the gfs picked up this early batton 300+hrs away on the 12z yesterday and then dropped it,...i wonder if the gfs will pick it up again once he has been around the track.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Cambrian]

A better trend for cold appearing on the GEM ensemble means and anomalies at day 14, for around the 25th / 26th, comparing the 0z and 12z runs.

The flow is slightly more north of west into the UK and Ireland on the 12z, polar maritime flow extending into Spain too, whereas it was just to France on the 0z, lower heights more withdrawn to the west of Greenland and more pronounced lower heights down through Western Europe. Lower heights also extend further south in the North Sea on the 12z. The T850 -4 degree isotherm is into central Scotland on the 12z, compared with it running through Shetland on the 0z, -2 degree hatching through most of the UK and Ireland and tellingly, the zero degree line is down at the Pyrenees rather than the Brest peninsula. 

0z GEM @336h

  

12z GEM @324h

  

Modest improvements, but improvements all the same. Of potential significance especially when taken together, because if this winter to date is anything to go by, any colder weather at the end of the month is perhaps most likely to appear from the northwest in the first instance. 

The pattern changes that resulted in the two earlier cold spells cropped up in these charts as a signal quite suddenly between day 8 and 14, those for the second spell more abruptly than those for the first one if I recall correctly, so it’s not at all out of the question that if colder weather is to arrive by months’ end, that these kinds of changes might be indicative of the beginning of an incremental trend that will pick up over the next few days. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Rather underwhelming for late wintry conditions.

[Stuie]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Rather underwhelming for late wintry conditions.

You have posted a pretty downward trend scatter chart.  Down is colder right?

[Purga]

Solidly mild and zonal looking with a very intact vortex out to D10 and beyond. Stav on CF emphasising how incredibly mild it'll be this coming week as well,

Meanwhile in Siberia it's -58C (nearly -60C!) - this country is a joke for so called 'winter' weather

 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Purga

[snowsummer]

24 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening all

it is going to be a while before the models will get to grips with the ssw that has not even happened yet so a little patience is involved here

just looking at the ECM at day ten,i think that there is a little bit of interest here with heights in the Atlantic and a low in Iberia,i had matched this with the cfs from this morning and take a look at what happens on this run

 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle à très long terme CFS (Climate Forecast System) jusqu'à neuf mois de la NOAA/NCEP

of course it's the cfs but i would be inclined to see what happens in the models over the next few days to see if they come up with a similar evolution,the gfs picked up this early batton 300+hrs away on the 12z yesterday and then dropped it,...i wonder if the gfs will pick it up again once he has been around the track.

Im a bit confused. Theres no cold showing on models yet as the SSW is still days away from beginning? I get that. But if the SSW is to have an effect on our weather ( and yes, i get that it might not), then surely the charts we're seeing now wont be accurate after the ssw ( even less so than they normally  are at 10 days out) . Hope that makes sense, i think ive confused myself! 

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

At this stage it's too early for any impact to be showing at the 500hPa level of the troposphere as even the furthest reach of the latest GFS is only out to the 28th Feb. The SSW at 10hPa is forecast to occur on the 15th February and expectations are that it will likely take several weeks to filter down and impact the troposphere. In fairness to Nick, his article does make this clear. But hopefully we will start to see some interesting model output by the end of this coming week.

A look at the Sudden Stratospheric Warming next week and what implications this may have on our weather a few weeks later. There's not guarantee that it will bring the Beast from the East like 2018 as suggested by the media, but it may increase the risk of a spell of cold and wintry weather into early March.

........So, there is no Beast from the East with snow and ice indicated in the model output out to 16 days, for now at least, so probably not for the rest of this month. But we will be monitoring the downwelling of the reversal to see if it reaches the troposphere, but based on current GFS forecast analysis of the atmospheric winds, I wouldn't expect any impacts of next week’s SSW event until early March if the reversal reaches the troposphere.

Thank you blessed.  Yes that’s true and the last effect and agree to be fair to Nick too. 

[Frosty.]

It is my unshakable belief that the Cfs 12z is on the right track longer term… SSW Bingo!!!!   

Edited February 12, 2023 by Frosty.

[jellybaby1969]

16 minutes ago, Purga said:

Solidly mild and zonal looking with a very intact vortex out to D10 and beyond. Stav on CF emphasising how incredibly mild it'll be this coming week as well,

Meanwhile in Siberia it's -58C (nearly -60C!) - this country is a joke for so called 'winter' weather

 

What do you actually expect ? We are an island in the Atlantic ..we don't have a huge land mass. Extreme winter conditions are very rare..meanwhile -50s in Siberia are probably not. We are looking beyond day 10 for a real pattern change....

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It is my unshakable belief that that the Cfs 12z is on the right track longer term… SSW Bingo!!!!   

The only thing I would say about these ridiculous charts is that I do think pressure will rise to our NW. This is being hinted at way closer than these charts.

 

[damianslaw]

42 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

A better trend for cold appearing on the GEM ensemble means and anomalies at day 14, for around the 25th / 26th, comparing the 0z and 12z runs.

The flow is slightly more north of west into the UK and Ireland on the 12z, polar maritime flow extending into Spain too, whereas it was just to France on the 0z, lower heights more withdrawn to the west of Greenland and more pronounced lower heights down through Western Europe. Lower heights also extend further south in the North Sea on the 12z. The T850 -4 degree isotherm is into central Scotland on the 12z, compared with it running through Shetland on the 0z, -2 degree hatching through most of the UK and Ireland and tellingly, the zero degree line is down at the Pyrenees rather than the Brest peninsula. 

0z GEM @336h

  

12z GEM @324h

  

Modest improvements, but improvements all the same. Of potential significance especially when taken together, because if this winter to date is anything to go by, any colder weather at the end of the month is perhaps most likely to appear from the northwest in the first instance. 

The pattern changes that resulted in the two earlier cold spells cropped up in these charts as a signal quite suddenly between day 8 and 14, those for the second spell more abruptly than those for the first one if I recall correctly, so it’s not at all out of the question that if colder weather is to arrive by months’ end, that these kinds of changes might be indicative of the beginning of an incremental trend that will pick up over the next few days. 

This synoptical evolution makes sense, if we see a pacific high ridge north into the Pole, combined with MJO moving phase 6 to 7, will force the PV to stretch and begin to push eastwards ejecting a scandi trough scenario and the euro/azores heights to back west, pressure then drops through Europe, the SSW then builds those heights over the Pole and the jet goes southerly.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

39 minutes ago, Stuie said:

You have posted a pretty downward trend scatter chart.  Down is colder right?

But the average is still above average unfortunately.

Until we start seeing the average fall below -5c it will remain underwhelming in my eyes.

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

But the average is still above average unfortunately.

Until we start seeing the average fall below -5c it will remain underwhelming in my eyes.

True and agree. What you do see from the 23rd (FI) is that it becomes 50/50 towards the 30yr mean. Let`s see how this pans out.

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Solidly mild and zonal looking with a very intact vortex out to D10 and beyond. Stav on CF emphasising how incredibly mild it'll be this coming week as well,

Meanwhile in Siberia it's -58C (nearly -60C!) - this country is a joke for so called 'winter' weather

 

It's Siberia - known for the cold lol! - and if we get an easterly shortly let's hope some of that lovely cold makes it's way to the UK

[Don]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I must say that this period of weather is absolutely lovely for this time of year, but ,it really is the calm before the storm........

We will have to see!  Still very up in the air as to what 'might' happen in the coming weeks!

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, offerman said:

What storm?  It could be we get some very cold but calm weather leading in to March as happened a few years ago. I remember a very cold calm March a few years ago with a SSW . 

The weather has a habit of balancing out - so safe to say all this "calm" and high pressure weather that we are getting now could well balance to very stormy weather which if it falls right could be a cold easterly with a storm hitting the cold freezing weather leading to blizzards and drifts of snow - that's my crystal ball outlook and I'm sticking to it as the models are still making us wait for the results of the ssw!

[mbrothers]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Solidly mild and zonal looking with a very intact vortex out to D10 and beyond. Stav on CF emphasising how incredibly mild it'll be this coming week as well,

Meanwhile in Siberia it's -58C (nearly -60C!) - this country is a joke for so called 'winter' weather

 

Bizarre post , makes no sense.

[Rob 79812010]

20 minutes ago, andymusic said:

The weather has a habit of balancing out - so safe to say all this "calm" and high pressure weather that we are getting now could well balance to very stormy weather which if it falls right could be a cold easterly with a storm hitting the cold freezing weather leading to blizzards and drifts of snow - that's my crystal ball outlook and I'm sticking to it as the models are still making us wait for the results of the ssw!

I would love snowy breakdowns if I didn't live in Manc!!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Solidly mild and zonal looking with a very intact vortex out to D10 and beyond. Stav on CF emphasising how incredibly mild it'll be this coming week as well,

Meanwhile in Siberia it's -58C (nearly -60C!) - this country is a joke for so called 'winter' weather

 

Don't want it that cold, however if that does start moving east, will be one hell of an easterly.

[andymusic]

Wonder what ye olde pub run gfs 18z will have for us tonight - will it point the way towards the end of the run to a lovely massive reversal/easterly promise? - probably still too early yet but ya never know - we shall see!

[Buzz]

33 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Don't want it that cold, however if that does start moving east, will be one hell of an easterly.

You mean WEST, not EAST.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

39 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Wonder what ye olde pub run gfs 18z will have for us tonight - will it point the way towards the end of the run to a lovely massive reversal/easterly promise? - probably still too early yet but ya never know - we shall see!

It won’t be right….Mighty March awaits

 

 BFTP

[offerman]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

The weather has a habit of balancing out - so safe to say all this "calm" and high pressure weather that we are getting now could well balance to very stormy weather which if it falls right could be a cold easterly with a storm hitting the cold freezing weather leading to blizzards and drifts of snow - that's my crystal ball outlook and I'm sticking to it as the models are still making us wait for the results of the ssw!

You could all be right Andy. Let’s hope for a nice colder period with some snow to finish off the season. Would love to get out there again with my son sledging. 

[Norrance]

3 hours ago, Paul said:

Too many off topic posts in here today. If you're not posting about the model output, please don't hit the submit button.

The chat thread is here

 

Please read this again. Still too many off topic posts are being made. Use the moans and chat thread for those please as requested.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Buzz said:

You mean WEST, not EAST.

 

Oops yep, I was thinking easterly, and got confused.