Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Mike Poole]

Not a lot to glean from the clusters tonight.  T192-T240:

Subtle variations on the shape of the high, and the extent to which the vortex makes inroads travelling clockwise around it.

T264+:

The single cluster looks very good.  But a single cluster is not to be trusted! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Ext'd EPS,...that's what i like to see

i am not a happy chappy though ATM as i have just scrapped my car due to my engine cylinder head blown 

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not a lot to glean from the clusters tonight.  T192-T240:

Subtle variations on the shape of the high, and the extent to which the vortex makes inroads travelling clockwise around it.

T264+:

The single cluster looks very good.  But a single cluster is not to be trusted! 

I think they are not showing high confidence in the west based NAO Mike.

[Battleground Snow]

ECM weeklies keep a Greenland high out until the end of March, but only week 2 and 3 look impressively cold for the 2m temp anomalies 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM weeklies keep a Greenland high out until the end of March, but only week 2 and 3 look impressively cold for the 2m temp anomalies 

Most likely because after the initial thrust, it’s hard to maintain a continuous severely cold feed in March- you have the surface layer continuously working against you.

Essentially you need -10 or colder uppers to negate surface heating. As soon as the flow weakens even just a tad, the uppers relent and the surface warms.

[sebastiaan1973]

Double dip. No FW. 

MJO phase 7,8 on the long term.  

Northern blocking. Altough it can be somewhat to far away. We have to wait and see.

[Ali1977]

EC Control looking primed at day 10 but it is probably better than all the Ens

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ali1977

[Stuie]

7 day jet via the gefs. Don`t really to explain but for newer members, it is up and over our HP (with a little sniff at an Easterly flow).

 

[seabreeze86]

ECM control is remarkably similar to the GFS especially given how far out it is 

[Ali1977]

Day 14 EC control is epic and the mean is pretty good 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ali1977

[Cloud 10]

ECM mean 360 hrs.

 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 14 EC control is epic and the mean is pretty good 

That’s day 12

day 14 is indeed epic 

[Ali1977]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That’s day 12

day 14 is indeed epic 

correct, it’s been a long day !! And yes Day 14 is even epic’er 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM mean 360 hrs.

 

That's this morning's run but tonight's is also coming along nicely. 

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

correct, it’s been a long day !! And yes Day 14 is even epic’er 

May as well show it

[bluearmy]

47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not a lot to glean from the clusters tonight.  T192-T240:

Subtle variations on the shape of the high, and the extent to which the vortex makes inroads travelling clockwise around it.

T264+:

The single cluster looks very good.  But a single cluster is not to be trusted! 

Looking through the individual members shows about a 33% support for sub -8c uppers across the country 

[bluearmy]

Biggest ec46 clusters are MAR into Greenland with downstream trough for weeks 3 and 4

that speaks louder than the temp anoms for week 4

week 3 is showing  cold for a reason 

week 4 is 60% cluster type 1. (Hugely unusual to see that level of support for a non climatology cluster type )

week 4 temp anoms aren’t usually reliable 

[seabreeze86]

Looking though everything tonight I’d be astonished if we didn’t end up with something notable in March. We will probably have 3 or 4 bites at it . West based is the only worry for me 

[Aiden2012]

Sorry may be off topic but isn’t everybody like me sick of seeing good charts at day 10 been like it since the start of winter

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Aiden2012 said:

Sorry may be off topic but isn’t everybody like me sick of seeing good charts at day 10 been like it since the start of winter

Mean is good from day 7. Jet stream wise. Let's see what happens.

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Sorry may be off topic but isn’t everybody like me sick of seeing good charts at day 10 been like it since the start of winter

Pull your charts back to 5-7 max. It will save your sanity. 

[damianslaw]

Models continue to be in agreement, high pressure on the scene by and large - as has been the case most of the winter apart from Christmas to mid Jan. The means continue to show the PV displaced to Siberia eventually and an eventual flow from the north west - north east quadrant, at this range, too early to call how the SSW effect will ultimately play out and its trends we need to keep an eye on, hence the means are the best models to look at, rather than Op output 10 day plus stage.

I'm reminded of late November, when we were waiting and watching the weak zonal reverse flow take hold, took a bit longer to arrive than anticipated, but the depth of cold was more than many expected and heights to the NW held quite strong, but that is where the similiarities end, then it was a matter of time of the westerlies taking over, at late season stage, the demise of the PV is a natural occurance, and northerlies and easterlies could very well take hold for quite some time to come...

Its the 20 Feb, many long range forecasts are going for a possible change to much colder not until second week of March (8th), that is still some 15 days away....if it verifies it may be a bit earlier than this or a bit later.. with this in mind we've another week left before such change creeps into the reliable - its going to be a long week for some!...

[phil nw.]

The time lag of the downwelling of the Strat.warmings will try our patience in the coming days.

Latest ecm strat. forecast shows zonal winds going into. reverse around months end,day 8,only at 30hPa,which is mid level .

Lower down zw slowing to low single figures so we can see that it seems like forever as the weakening filters down.

The full effects on the 500 pattern, probably as long range ens guidance suggest, likely to imprint towards mid March .

There is another warming imminent which will continue to undermine any vortex recovery.

We could do with the whole process being quicker because of the lateness of the season but details of how cold we could get is obviously too soon to tell.

The shape of the trop.pattern that looks likely,based on the longer ens.,looks a cold one and because of the ongoing pv weakness looks likely to hold for a decent period.

Whether it will deliver a white outcome remains to be seen.

Interesting to follow though whatever the actual weather on the ground is next month.

[RhHh]

36 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Sorry may be off topic but isn’t everybody like me sick of seeing good charts at day 10 been like it since the start of winter

Add to that thought why do the night time charts show better for coldies?

[CryoraptorA303]

Part of me wants this late cold spell to land, as this Apruary has been beyond disappointing and I'm already getting hay fever (which is a record by almost a month), and despite the cold weather in late November and December, considering the number of opportunities we've had this winter (remember in December when we all thought it was almost a given (or as close to a given as you can possibly get) for it to return sometime in January), it's been fairly disappointing and one of, if not the, earliest springs in British history. This Apruary especially has been bone dry down south and very warm for a long time.  I've calculated that this pattern that we've had this month would be like if there had been a daily high of 34-35c for three weeks almost consecutively with brief dips of 28-29c only lasting 1-2 days each, if it had happened in July. While this is not a perfect analogue, I think the point is made that we're not really appreciating how severe this heat wave we've had really is. Where I am, we've had next to no rain since the Atlantic torrential downpour bombs in late Dec-early January. The fields and parks near me that normally stay wet and muddy well into March (and sometimes into April) are already drying up. This extremity that we've been having in the past few years of bone dry periods followed by Atlantic bombing campaigns is worrying: There's very little period of consistent rainfall. Desiccated land being carpet bombed by the Atlantic and immediately waterlogging and flooding, and then being left to desiccate in bone dry conditions almost instantaneously all over again is extremely damaging to wildlife. 

Having said all that, a new cold snap in the middle of March, after a whole month of spring, would be extremely disruptive to nature even more than it has already been disrupted by events of the last few years. So part of me wants it to not land so we can get on with spring and prevent more disruption to nature than has already been inflicted by the incredibly early spring. On the plus side, the long term forecast is looking very -NAO and if it is to be given any weight, spring should trend wetter than usual. At the very least, the normal April spike and early summer can be delayed a bit, even if it's just to May. I'll take that at this point over summer starting in April. However, February was given a 50% chance by the Met Office to trend wetter than average, and it's turned out to trend absolutely bone dry, so this is a good reminder that long term forecasts are far from the final word.

Another slightly terrifying thing to keep in mind is so far, this year has bore a striking similarity to 76 - After all, that was precipitated by a bone dry February and spring period. What's more is we're coming out of a triple Nina into ENSO neutral, just as 76 was, so the oceano-atmospheric conditions are also looking quite similar to 76... If anyone can be bothered to find it, it'd be interesting to see what the long term forecast was in February 1976. If it was trending wetter than average like it is now, I'd keep my eyes out. A 76 repeat scaled up to today's standards would be an absolute tragedy, especially considering what happened last year and the fact that we've had no real recovery period - Atlantic bombing campaigns in autumn followed by bone dry conditions in early winter, followed by more Atlantic bombing, followed by yet another prolonged period of bone dry conditions and an exceptionally early spring. The damage climate change is causing is going to rapidly accelerate in this decade, I feel.

[Met4Cast]

Perhaps more interesting from the EC46 is this. 

Very strong signal for Scandinavian blocking (BLO+) followed by a retrogression signal (NAO-), i.e high pressure moving westwards towards Greenland.