Model Output Discussion - Into February

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Unfortunately it does a gem on us, against the background signals, but I guess it a possibility among the many in FI.

 

Ok, so now we'll see what gems later outcome could be, I guess.

[Kentspur]

GFS again showing the risk of some Wintry showers in the SE next week -8c HPA temps and a ENEly flow if only it was a month earlier!

Edited February 22, 2023 by Kentspur

[Guest]

Await the ensembles but this 10 day chart would be quite something if it came off. However, it's the GFS so unlikely to.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Guest

[seabreeze86]

GFS and GEM show another route to avoid the northerly. Probably we completely different by the 0z

This won’t be resolved for a few days yet 

[Lukesluckybunch]

the 18z unfortunately was a bit like the ECM mean at 240

[seabreeze86]

Ridiculous cold knocking on the door 

[Rain All Night]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

if only it was a month earlier!

I assume I'll be seeing this phrase a few more times over the next couple of months

[Ali1977]

Last 2 runs at day 11 - clearly lots to resolve !!

[alexisj9]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

Ridiculous cold knocking on the door 

I think this is the second SSW fighting the mjo. We'll see in a few days how it pans out for us, think models will be difficult to view for a bit. Also bare in mind the Mets long term, who mention north or east, probably a mixture.

[Met4Cast]

This sinking high scenario has become a bit of a trend throughout todays runs, particularly on the ECM suite. 

Too much energy is being left over Canada which then tries to move eastwards, it erodes the high and prevents proper retrogression.

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This sinking high scenario has become a bit of a trend throughout todays runs, particularly on the ECM suite. 

Too much energy is being left over Canada which then tries to move eastwards, it erodes the high and prevents proper retrogression.

Yes definitely showing up in the ensembles also ,if the trend extends into the 0z runs then I will take note. Models just playing around with ideas won’t be resolved for a few days 

[Mark wheeler]

32 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

GFS again showing the risk of some Wintry showers in the SE next week -8c HPA temps and a ENEly flow if only it was a month earlier!

Yep this is repeating now regularly, something to get excited about , hell yeah , love seeing a snow flurry or two in your own backyard, not the same otherwise. Somehow

[Purga]

GFS 18z is determined and still hell bent to serve us up a steamy mild plate of cr*p tonight

[Lukesluckybunch]

29 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Ridiculous cold knocking on the door 

apart from spain..we look about the mildest place in europe! sounds about right

[markw2680]

I know it’s all model related but this is exactly why I don’t see why we get so excited or upset by day 10/11 charts, it’s because there’s a 0.01% chance of them verifying, I used to get carried away with them charts a few years ago but Iv been burned that many times and led up the runway let alone the garden path but not anymore. Of course I’d love a big freeze up with loads of snow especially after this shocking winter but I’m also at the point now where I’m looking forward to the feel of that warm sun on me. Boring that it may be I’d suggest sticking to day 5 at most and only look further for trends at most 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I know it’s all model related but this is exactly why I don’t see why we get so excited or upset by day 10/11 charts, it’s because there’s a 0.01% chance of them verifying, I used to get carried away with them charts a few years ago but Iv been burned that many times and led up the runway let alone the garden path but not anymore. Of course I’d love a big freeze up with loads of snow especially after this shocking winter but I’m also at the point now where I’m looking forward to the feel of that warm sun on me. Boring that it may be I’d suggest sticking to day 5 at most and only look further for trends at most 

1% for cold and 51% if showing mild. 48% somewhere inbetween.

Today's 18z feels about right.

[alexisj9]

Short term ensembles look good for the SE still.

Thing is what I did notice before, is those that were colder here, ended up with a more west based pattern yesterday and the day before. Doesn't mean it will stay that way. Hopefully tonight's run is not what happens though, that would be heart breaking. Although with the second SSW having not happened yet, I doubt we've seen yet, what the full outcome would be, it's not going to effect the weather just in the next ten days. The consequences for the weather will be around a while. Hopefully we will get our turn.

As everyone probably thought the opp is an outlier, can't post end yet, as not out fully, but so far on weter, it's right on top when it first gets warm.

Edited February 23, 2023 by alexisj9

[Pixel]

1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

I know it’s all model related but this is exactly why I don’t see why we get so excited or upset by day 10/11 charts, it’s because there’s a 0.01% chance of them verifying, I used to get carried away with them charts a few years ago but Iv been burned that many times and led up the runway let alone the garden path but not anymore. Of course I’d love a big freeze up with loads of snow especially after this shocking winter but I’m also at the point now where I’m looking forward to the feel of that warm sun on me. Boring that it may be I’d suggest sticking to day 5 at most and only look further for trends at most 

I get where you are coming from..

There's a many variables this time of year that the models are programmed to follow via x many previous outcomes and present scientific observations but given there appears to be a double warming (SSW) in progress the 'whip' of effect down to our meagre troposphere could be interesting, esp how our fave or not so fave models handle it's evolution... High over Greenland + Atlantic Low... drifting west -ve or north or back to Atlantic driven normality eastward? plus is there enough excuse for convection to produce snow in a so called spring atmosphere or will be static atmospheric easterlies till the Atlantic influence blows though?

exciting yet i suspect worry times with regard to normal warmth and rainfall this time of year.

Daan here (IMBY) it's been a very dry Feb to welcome spring, our plants are very confused 

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo really upgrading the cold in the near term.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem hasn't really improved overnight, but the GFS is looking much better.

I would suggest FI is 144 atm.

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Mucka]

Yes much better GFS this morning with a sharpening of the Arctic trough and much lower heights across N Europe.

It makes a meal of things post 168 but it is much more like ECM in the sense the Arctic trough to our NE is forcing the pattern.

UKMO has everything further SE but is okay. I think it will be better this evening though.

I expect an excellent ECM this morning with less drama but we will see.

GFS 144 mean has sharper Arctic trough and lower Euro heights backing the Op.

 

After a couple of teases GFS op finally produces. Could be worth the delay if turns out this good but how about getting this a few days earlier instead? We have waited long enough.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Mucka

[andymusic]

MORNING - GFS 00z - amazing synoptics with the ARTIC kicking in the Northerly/NORTH easterly - way out at around 8th March - 

AND THE UK STARTS DISSAPPEARING UNDERNEATH THE WHITE GOLD LOL

Edited February 23, 2023 by andymusic

[MJB]

240 Mean

264 Mean

288 Mean

I've seen worse

[joggs]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

240 Mean

264 Mean

288 Mean

I've seen worse

Looks like a gradual west based solution to me.

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, joggs said:

Looks like a gradual west based solution to me.

Certainly not to me, run through the ENS , you might change your mind . Quite a few run down the North sea but close enough to hit the UK