Model Output Discussion - Into February

[MJB]

Stunning from The Control 

 

[sunnijim]

7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes and this is a lot better too, 06z control at D10.

 

A thing of Beauty if it is a cold and snowy set up you are after.

Shades of the Great 1891 March blizzard that hit the SW, very similar chart I think.

[Met4Cast]

Quite a cold cluster 8th-10th March so it's possible we're simply seeing cold/blocked patterns being pushed back somewhat vs previous modelling outputs. Very tricky forecasting at the moment with a lot going on for models to try & resolve.

@Singularitypointed out to me on Twitter re: MJO plots, tropical storm Freddie is currently passing through the Indian Ocean which might be interfering with the RMM plots, this throws a further complication to the overall evolution and a further issue for modelling to attempt to resolve. 

The "chase" isn't over.

[feb1991blizzard]

6z GEFS BOOM!

[minus10]

16 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

A thing of Beauty if it is a cold and snowy set up you are after.

Shades of the Great 1891 March blizzard that hit the SW, very similar chart I think.

I dont remember that one...

[MJB]

288 Mean

Certainly not to be sniffed at , lesson .............................always wait for the ENS 

 

Aint bad at all 

[Ali1977]

A day of upgrades has started well with the mean and the Control is stunning - please let this continue and maybe come fwd a little

[LRD]

GFS 6z op and control have had a lovers tiff and gone their separate ways

We can probably disregard both for the time being

Even with some dramatic synoptics amongst ensemble members, there are still hardly any runs reaching -10 850s and below. Those 850s will hopefully stay away until Nov/Dec now

[NewEra21]

10 minutes ago, LRD said:

GFS 6z op and control have had a lovers tiff and gone their separate ways

We can probably disregard both for the time being

Even with some dramatic synoptics amongst ensemble members, there are still hardly any runs reaching -10 850s and below. Those 850s will hopefully stay away until Nov/Dec now

That's why I don't get why some are getting carried away, it's going to take very cold 850s as we enter March to see something truly worthwhile.

And besides the odd rogue run, we're barely breaking the -10 850s threshold.

I would love a truly cold spell like the 2018  BFTE, but I'm honestly just not seeing it, yet anyway.

Hell this weekends 850s are basically just as cold, if not colder than what's showing in a few weeks time.

Edited February 24, 2023 by NewEra21

[Kentspur]

36 minutes ago, MJB said:

Stunning from The Control 

 

Is it just me or is it more often than not the control run whether it be GFS or ECM that shows these wonderful looking charts most of the time

Edited February 24, 2023 by Kentspur

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

That's why I don't get why some are getting carried away, it's going to take very cold 850s as we enter March to see something truly worthwhile.

And besides the odd rogue run, we're barely breaking the -10 850s threshold.

I would love a truly cold spell like the 2018  BFTE, but I'm honestly just not seeing it, yet anyway.

Hell this weekends 850s are basically just as cold, if not colder than what's showing in a few weeks time.

2018 was as rare as rocking horse **** , you will be waiting a long time for that again. 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

That's why I don't get why some are getting carried away, it's going to take very cold 850s as we enter March to see something truly worthwhile.

And besides the odd rogue run, we're barely breaking the -10 850 threshold.

I would love a truly cold spell like the 2018  BFTE, but I'm honestly just not seeing it, yet anyway.

Hell this weekends 850s are basically just as cold, if not colder than what's showing in a few weeks time.

Yep and coldies/snowies are likely to need -10s at this time of year for anything of significance for lowland UK. Although, I believe, snow can fall in higher 850 temps, even in March, if there is already embedded surface cold (happy to be corrected on that one)

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

The issue with those charts & the main reason I don’t use them is that they tend to be lagged. When the signal begins changing it can take a day or two for those charts to begin to adjust, whilst they can be good in the broader sense in a dynamic, changing situation like the one we’re in I find they don’t offer much insight. 

Id sooner be lagged and accurate, lol.. for me, its not about being the first to spot a new pattern, but to do it accurately. We all have our preferences of course and to me i find them easy to use.

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

That's why I don't get why some are getting carried away, it's going to take very cold 850s as we enter March to see something truly worthwhile.

And besides the odd rogue run, we're barely breaking the -10 850s threshold.

I would love a truly cold spell like the 2018  BFTE, but I'm honestly just not seeing it, yet anyway.

Hell this weekends 850s are basically just as cold, if not colder than what's showing in a few weeks time.

That's true, in fact I'm surprised that there are not more snow showers/flurries being forecast this weekend, at least for the SE, -8/-9c uppers by Sunday for a while.

[Weather-history]

Bonkers ensemble award goes to  P06 

Basically it has the Northern Isles in -10°C  850hpa airmass or below for a week and down as low -20.4°C!

 

[MJB]

10 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep and coldies/snowies are likely to need -10s at this time of year for anything of significance for lowland UK. Although, I believe, snow can fall in higher 850 temps, even in March, if there is already embedded surface cold (happy to be corrected on that one)

That's not quite correct  , I posted charts days ago with -6 /-7 850's that gave us snow . I am sure someone will have some at hand to post 

[danm]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

That's not quite correct  , I posted charts days ago with -6 /-7 850's that gave us snow . I am sure someone will have some at hand to post 

Falling snow, yes. Snow that sticks around, unlikely. 

[snowray]

06z ensembles don't look too bad to me, hopefully we will start to see more runs like the control turning up in the next few days and things firming up a   bit more for the first half of March.

 

[keithlucky]

Spring has hibernated

[Mucka]

Big picture is that we have seen any modelled deep cold pushed back from around the 3rd/4th of March to around the 7th/8th of March.

So we have lost 3 or 4 days but the signal remains.

I dare say there would be anticipation rather than frustration if we were in December and not March.

As has been said, every day counts with a warming sun and any lying snow gets harder and harder to achieve with ever more special synoptics and deep cold required.

We are in Meteorological Spring in March after all. 

If we start to see the models pushing things back beyond the 9th over the next 48/72 hours then I will pretty much lose interest barring something extraordinary.

I really don't care for chilly days and wet snow in early Spring.

All that said I am still optimistic we can get cold in by the 8th. 

 

 

 

[Derecho]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Bonkers ensemble award goes to  P06 

Basically it has the Northern Isles in -10°C  850hpa airmass or below for a week and down as low -20.4°C!

 

That has -15C uppers widely over the UK on the 9th, would be a great birthday present if that came off! but sadly most probably not...

However I don't think an Iceland / Greenland high in the long run is off the cards yet, despite what the OP is showing, there is a sizeable cluster of cold output.

[tight isobar]

Today we have a classic op- ensemble dynamic!!. And this is where 1 chases the other b4- the switch!gfs 6z has probably?!- got the sync data... of layer ramifications ‘.. while the ensemble/ support- will/ should start deciphering!!. Looking at- the spreads, notes “ what will likely be”- a top end = mid/ upper latitude fast forward support!!!.. the op- raws will imo follow each other now @12z “moreso “.. then all suite supports- should follow quite conclusive.. and rapidly!!! ... News making weather.., @ probably!!!

Edited February 24, 2023 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, MJB said:

That's not quite correct  , I posted charts days ago with -6 /-7 850's that gave us snow . I am sure someone will have some at hand to post 

Got an even better eg - This gave me my biggest March snow event - around 7 or 8 inches (West Midlands) - signed - A.Tonking.

[jmp223]

Sorry for a noobish question but could someone tell me the difference between the "control" and the "operational" runs in the GEFS? Thanks in advance.

 

[LRD]

34 minutes ago, MJB said:

That's not quite correct  , I posted charts days ago with -6 /-7 850's that gave us snow . I am sure someone will have some at hand to post 

As I say, probably with cold already embedded. I think Matt H mentions the -10 parameter too somewhere on this thread

Not impossible of course with 6s and 7s but I don't think you and I are going to see much unless the 850s get down to -10. Might get away with -8s. That's for sticking snow too, of course. Might see it in the sky but it won't stick

Edited February 24, 2023 by LRD