Summer 2023 chat

[reef]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Some very good ones in there. 1975 and 2018 notably so, 1983 had the hot July, as well as 2013, 1991 and 1996 were quite decent. Indeed I wouldn't class any of those summers as poor.

Indeed, no real stinkers in there apart from 2021 (in the south anyway, here it was decent).

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, reef said:

Indeed, no real stinkers in there apart from 2021 (in the south anyway, here it was decent).

Yes 2021 was quite good here as well. We've not had a very poor summer since 2012. 2017 and 2020 deteriorated rapidly but the Junes were good. 

[Sunny76]

9 minutes ago, reef said:

Indeed, no real stinkers in there apart from 2021 (in the south anyway, here it was decent).

91 was kind of stinky. It was ok, but wasn’t special either.

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes 2021 was quite good here as well. We've not had a very poor summer since 2012. 2017 and 2020 deteriorated rapidly but the Junes were good. 

2021 was possibly one of the worst summers in the last 10, for my neck of the woods.

[B87]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Some very good ones in there. 1975 and 2018 notably so, 1983 had the hot July, as well as 2013, 1991 and 1996 were quite decent. Indeed I wouldn't class any of those summers as poor.

2021 was pretty bad throughout, but especially August. 1991 and 2016 both had atrocious Junes, but stabilised in July and August.

Using summer index, 1996 and 2016 were the closest to a typical summer. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by B87

[Sunny76]

17 minutes ago, B87 said:

2021 was pretty bad throughout, but especially August. 1991 and 2016 both had atrocious Junes, but stabilised in July and August.

Using summer index, 1996 and 2016 were the closest to a typical summer. 

21 just stank to high heaven. 
 

91 improved after June. July became quite warm and hot at times, and parts of August were warm and sunny. 
 

I think June 91 kind of tarnished it a little, as I always like some early hot spells. 

[B87]

I do wonder if our summer index for 2021 was actually higher than it was in the NW, even though the summer was good there and terrible here?

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Some very good ones in there. 1975 and 2018 notably so, 1983 had the hot July, as well as 2013, 1991 and 1996 were quite decent. Indeed I wouldn't class any of those summers as poor.

Not sure there is much correlation at all between poor springs followed by poor summers?  None of those in the index above were washouts by any means.

[summer blizzard]

How are we defining poor springs.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No one has posted the GLOSEA I see. Latest update was released today.

JJA-

JAS-

ASO-

 

A better summer the further N you live?

Also looks like a cool, wet autumn being hinted at.

EC seasonal looks very warm and dry for summer

Interestingly it also sets the scene for a deterioration fairly early into autumn

Edited May 11, 2023 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

The GLOSEA scenario could easily go very wrong.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The GLOSEA scenario could easily go very wrong.

Different to recent summers from GLOSEA with pressure generally low over Europe.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

I do wonder if our summer index for 2021 was actually higher than it was in the NW, even though the summer was good there and terrible here?

Not the north-west but summer 2021 was very good here. I say that as someone who grew up with reliable Essex summers.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Relativistic

[B87]

7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

How are we defining poor springs.

Cold and cloudy, usually also wet.

[B87]

Spring 2016 was cool and wet, but slightly sunnier than average. All the others in the list were cool and exceptionally dull.

Edited May 12, 2023 by B87

[John S2]

12 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

91 was kind of stinky. It was ok, but wasn’t special either.

I suspect this is a little known fact, but July 1991 is the warmest July on record at Tiree. An interesting month synoptically.

[al78]

As we are heading for at least a moderate if not strong El Nino this year, I decided to have a look at past years where the JJA Oceanic Nino Index was at least +1.

I have attached a composite anomaly of sea level pressure using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for ONI years >=1 for years back to 1950. There seems to be a NS bias across the UK with the southern half of the UK under negative SLP anomalies.

Here are a couple of tables comparing mean Central England Temperature and HadUKP EW and SE England for years back to 1950 where ONI >=1 and ONI <=-1. Summers with strong El Nino years tend to be cooler and wetter in the UK with a slightly higher wetter tendency towards the south-east.

Edited May 12, 2023 by al78

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, B87 said:

Cold and cloudy, usually also wet.

I was thinking more empericallly whether by a calculation or metric. Your list excluded 2000 for example which was very wet. 

[B87]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I was thinking more empericallly whether by a calculation or metric. Your list excluded 2000 for example which was very wet. 

All based on Heathrow figures.

It was only really April 2000 that was awful. March was sunny, mild and dry. May had average temps and sun but was wet.

It excluded 2015 for the same reason; only May was bad, with both March and April being dry and sunny.

Edited May 12, 2023 by B87

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, al78 said:

As we are heading for at least a moderate if not strong El Nino this year, I decided to have a look at past years where the JJA Oceanic Nino Index was at least +1.

I have attached a composite anomaly of sea level pressure using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for ONI years >=1 for years back to 1950. There seems to be a NS bias across the UK with the southern half of the UK under negative SLP anomalies.

Here are a couple of tables comparing mean Central England Temperature and HadUKP EW and SE England for years back to 1950 where ONI >=1 and ONI <=-1. Summers with strong El Nino years tend to be cooler and wetter in the UK with a slightly higher wetter tendency towards the south-east.

Our best analogues in my opinion (following a double Nina at least so some atmospheric fight)..

Applying a QBO filter (since 1979) and 1986, 2009 and 2014 are our strongest analogues (July 14 aside, they were unremarkable or poor).  

Applying a PDO filter should the Pacific refuse to play ball (March saw the most negative PDO value since 1956 for March) and 1972, 2009 and 2018 are closest.

[B87]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Our best analogues in my opinion (following a double Nina at least so some atmospheric fight)..

Applying a QBO filter (since 1979) and 1986, 2009 and 2014 are our strongest analogues (July 14 aside, they were unremarkable or poor).  

Applying a PDO filter should the Pacific refuse to play ball (March saw the most negative PDO value since 1956 for March) and 1972, 2009 and 2018 are closest.

2009 wasn't that bad, though spring 2009 was fairly decent as well. June was warm and sunny, July and August around average. July on the wet side and August dry. It was easily the best in the 2007-2012 spell of poor summers. 

2014 had a warm and sunny June and July, and a cool August with average sun.

Edited May 12, 2023 by B87

[CoventryWeather]

Still heading towards a hot and dry summer in my opinion. Nowhere near as warm as last year, but maybe low mid 30s fairly often. Probably be a fair bit of plume activity which maybe where we could be at risk of a wet summer. 

[Don]

6 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

Still heading towards a hot and dry summer in my opinion. Nowhere near as warm as last year, but maybe low mid 30s fairly often. Probably be a fair bit of plume activity which maybe where we could be at risk of a wet summer. 

I certainly can't see it being a cooler than average summer, even compared to the 1991-2020 average.  However, I think there is a fair chance it will be wetter than average.

[kold weather]

16 hours ago, Don said:

I certainly can't see it being a cooler than average summer, even compared to the 1991-2020 average.  However, I think there is a fair chance it will be wetter than average.

Especially the case with such warm ssts pretty much across the Atlantic right now. 

It does feel very 2021 right now though, even including the large heat dome in W.Canada like summer 21 as well.

 

[B87]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Especially the case with such warm ssts pretty much across the Atlantic right now. 

It does feel very 2021 right now though, even including the large heat dome in W.Canada like summer 21 as well.

 

2021 was awful. June warm but wet and cloudy, July average temperature but wet and cloudy, August chilly and dullest on record.

Edited May 13, 2023 by B87

[al78]

On 12/05/2023 at 22:23, Don said:

I certainly can't see it being a cooler than average summer, even compared to the 1991-2020 average.  However, I think there is a fair chance it will be wetter than average.

I'd go with this, although I wouldn't say there was a fair chance of a wetter than average summer, more like a small bias towards wetter being more likely than drier based on the developing El Nino and the Met Office 3 month contingency planner.

Edited May 15, 2023 by al78