Summer 2023 chat

[Sunny76]

Just now, Earthshine said:

Looking forward to that first 30C day this year.  Shame we get so little proper summer weather compared to other European countries (and yes I know Britain has a temperate climate for anyone who jumps at me!).

Yeah, we were really spoilt last summer and in 2018 with longer periods of warm or hot sunny periods.

Summer 2023 will be dull affair I feel, but the heat and sunshine will arrive eventually, however brief it will be

[Sunny76]

51 minutes ago, John S2 said:

My current thoughts on summer 2023 is that it will not be similar to any of the last 3 summers because I am expecting considerable variability of weather type. Conversely, the last 3 summers each had a persistent theme:

2020 - 3rd wettest on record [out of 150] here in NW England. All 3 months wet.

2021 - Quite special in NW England further North than Manchester, contrasting with poor summer in SE England

2022 - Consistently warm/hot with the good conditions expanding northwards as summer progressed

The main reason to be positive about summer 2023 is that we will be transitioning from La Nina to El Nino, but I don't think it is guaranteed that the El Nino will be particularly strong. The years I have been looking at all had considerable variability of weather type from month to month, most having at least one very good month and one poor/abysmal. No common theme about which month will be best or worst. Hope to post more detail in due course. The Atlantic SST anomaly pattern is interesting.

If we are to guess a good summer month and poor one? My guess is Mid June to mid July will have the best period for sunshine and heat. The poorest spell will most likely coincide with the school holidays.

[Earthshine]

12 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

If we are to guess a good summer month and poor one? My guess is Mid June to mid July will have the best period for sunshine and heat. The poorest spell will most likely coincide with the school holidays.

Another hot August would be nice.  We've had two fairly warm Augusts (17.7C and 18.7C CET for 2020 and 2022 respectively) so far this decade.  Both are warmer than anything we got in the 2010s.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Another hot August would be nice.  We've had two fairly warm Augusts (17.7C and 18.7C CET for 2020 and 2022 respectively) so far this decade.  Both are warmer than anything we got in the 2010s.

I only rate August 22 as being decent in recent times. August 2018 wasn’t too bad with a clear sunny hot week, which followed a warm and sunny May to July period, but August as a whole was dull.

August 2020 was hot and sunny for the first week or so, so was ok in that respect, but it was also accompanied by some very humid conditions. Think we had some storms during that period in the London area. 

[summer blizzard]

Tend to agree. Hot months are 18C+ if we exclude the undeserving July 22 (an unremarkable month save the two days) and while August 22 was worthy, it is probably the only August that was. Late Aug 20 was simply too unsettled. 

[B87]

31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Tend to agree. Hot months are 18C+ if we exclude the undeserving July 22 (an unremarkable month save the two days) and while August 22 was worthy, it is probably the only August that was. Late Aug 20 was simply too unsettled. 

July 2022 was pretty much warm throughout, after the first week.

[Frigid]

32 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Tend to agree. Hot months are 18C+ if we exclude the undeserving July 22 (an unremarkable month save the two days) and while August 22 was worthy, it is probably the only August that was. Late Aug 20 was simply too unsettled. 

July 22 was a weird one in that the first 10 and last 10 days were cooler than average here. 10-20th is where all the warmth was concentrated, notably so 18-19th. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

July 2022 was pretty much warm throughout, after the first week.

Quite, Heathrow recorded 21 days above 25C and the low was 22.1 on the 1st. It was an extremely warm month even without the big two days. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Alderc

[TheOgre]

If we had a classic summer but with one terrible month would most people prefer:

cool wet June, hot dry July/August

hot dry June, cool wet July, hot dry August or

hot dry June/July, cool wet August

[B87]

32 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

If we had a classic summer but with one terrible month would most people prefer:

cool wet June, hot dry July/August

hot dry June, cool wet July, hot dry August or

hot dry June/July, cool wet August

I'd go for the hot and dry July/August to maximise the chances of hot weather. Plus we have been short-changed on Augusts for the last 15 years (even with last year).

Summers 1995 and 2013 had cool Junes here, followed by a warm/hot July/August.

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, B87 said:

July 2022 was pretty much warm throughout, after the first week.

Its possible location differences gave a different experience. Like Frigid I could never say that it was a bad month but it was less notable here than the likes of July 19 or Aug 20. There really was nothing at all notable here bar the two days.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Quite, Heathrow recorded 21 days above 25C and the low was 22.1 on the 1st. It was an extremely warm month even without the big two days. 

Strange statistical fact: I was in Greece last July and while it was hot (about 1-2 above normal, but with very little 35+ heat) there was one dull, wet day (the 9th) when it maxed out at around 18C. Strange that Heathrow had no such days whatsoever: even a good summer month usually has one or two below 20.

[Summer8906]

55 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

If we had a classic summer but with one terrible month would most people prefer:

cool wet June, hot dry July/August

hot dry June, cool wet July, hot dry August or

hot dry June/July, cool wet August

Usually the first, as there's nothing more depressing than bad weather kicking in post-solstice: just makes it seem like autumn is arriving early.

However this year, I am likely to be in the UK in June and out of the UK for much of July and August, so this year I'm hoping either July or Aug is the cool wet one! Perhaps I'll say July this year, considering that Aug is school holidays and most will want good weather.

That said the "July rain sandwich" is distinctly rare. Struggling to think of any examples with a good June and Aug, and bad July - though relatively speaking, July was the poorest month in both 2003 and 2005. Wonder if there are any well-defined examples of a bad July but good June/Aug from the past?

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Tend to agree. Hot months are 18C+ if we exclude the undeserving July 22 (an unremarkable month save the two days) and while August 22 was worthy, it is probably the only August that was. Late Aug 20 was simply too unsettled. 

Yes, August 20 was a poor month overall. Intense humid heat from the 6th-13th (mostly sunny, dull but interestingly thundery on the 13th) otherwise unsettled. The 14th to the 28th was particularly dire, with I think four separate especially active lows (one over the weekend of the 14th-16th; another one on Wed 19th which I think was a named storm; another one sometime early the final week; and the final one on the 28th) though the very end of the month improved to give cool but dry conditions.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Frigid]

18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Its possible location differences gave a different experience. Like Frigid I could never say that it was a bad month but it was less notable here than the likes of July 19 or Aug 20. There really was nothing at all notable here bar the two days.

Yup, here's the July 2022 data for Manchester Airport. Compared with London Heathrow. Major differences

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Frigid

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, TheOgre said:

If we had a classic summer but with one terrible month would most people prefer:

cool wet June, hot dry July/August

hot dry June, cool wet July, hot dry August or

hot dry June/July, cool wet August

As I consider the period from the 1st of July to 15th of August as being high summer, I would rather have the cool and wet weather to be in June.

[summer blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Yup, here's the July 2022 data for Manchester Airport. Compared with London Heathrow. Major differences

 

That highlights the distinction and I strongly suspect Leeds was similar to yourself. 

In the south it looks like the spike was the culmination of a 2 week spell from the 6th-20th then a little warmth again in the final third for 2-3 days. For yourself it was essentially just two short spells.

Edited May 1, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

That highlights the distinction and I strongly suspect Leeds was similar to yourself. 

In the south it looks like the spike was the culmination of a 2 week spell from the 6th-20th then a little warmth again in the final third for 2-3 days. For yourself it was essentially just two, two day spells.

July 2022 and 2013 had similar CET's yet 2013 was much warmer with a two week heatwave. Down south they had a blistering July, but up north not so much. 

August 2022 though, a whole different league. 

[summer blizzard]

Yes, July 13 is an exceptional month here. For 3 weeks it was majestic. 

Likewise, August 22 had a solid 2 weeks without the rest of the month being poor.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, TheOgre said:

If we had a classic summer but with one terrible month would most people prefer:

cool wet June, hot dry July/August

hot dry June, cool wet July, hot dry August or

hot dry June/July, cool wet August

Middle

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Strange statistical fact: I was in Greece last July and while it was hot (about 1-2 above normal, but with very little 35+ heat) there was one dull, wet day (the 9th) when it maxed out at around 18C. Strange that Heathrow had no such days whatsoever: even a good summer month usually has one or two below 20.

Heathrow went from the 19th June to 15th September without a max below 20C which is probably the longest such streak in Uk records. 
 

Also every day in August was also above 22C so it was an unprecedented warm run. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Hasn't been too bad today.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[B87]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

That said the "July rain sandwich" is distinctly rare. Struggling to think of any examples with a good June and Aug, and bad July - though relatively speaking, July was the poorest month in both 2003 and 2005. Wonder if there are any well-defined examples of a bad July but good June/Aug from the past?

2004 was a better example than 2003. July 2004 was often cool and wet in the first half, though improved a lot in the secone half.

1993 had a sunny and dry June and August, with a dull July. Those months were all cool though.

Other years with an alright June/August and poor July include 1973 and 2009.

Edited May 1, 2023 by B87

[Earthshine]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Usually the first, as there's nothing more depressing than bad weather kicking in post-solstice: just makes it seem like autumn is arriving early.

However this year, I am likely to be in the UK in June and out of the UK for much of July and August, so this year I'm hoping either July or Aug is the cool wet one! Perhaps I'll say July this year, considering that Aug is school holidays and most will want good weather.

That said the "July rain sandwich" is distinctly rare. Struggling to think of any examples with a good June and Aug, and bad July - though relatively speaking, July was the poorest month in both 2003 and 2005. Wonder if there are any well-defined examples of a bad July but good June/Aug from the past?

2020 might be another, both June and August had some good hot spells whereas July had only one freak hot day on the 31st.

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, Earthshine said:

2020 might be another, both June and August had some good hot spells whereas July had only one freak hot day on the 31st.

2009 had its poorest month in July. That was the best of those poor summers during the 2007-12 era.

June was hot and sunny for a little while, July was thundery and wet, and August was warm with a mix of sunny, but also some cloudy cooler days. It was dry in august.