Summer 2023 chat

[Schnee]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Hubby wants the ones that are combi so can be used as heating in the winter too. I'll pass on to him your post! I need a A/C shop LOL! Or someone to come around and advise us ideally!

Most of the wall units will do heat/cool. Keywords are inverter heat pump as you get more in return for your electric consumption. I was looking into it as a viable option to replace the CH and not get a system locked to heating water.

 

[Dark Horse]

6 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

You think we need air conditioning? all year around?? or are you living in the tropics? 

We have a temperate climate, night's are really not "cold most of the year". 

[weatherguru14]

21 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

We have a temperate climate, night's are really not "cold most of the year". 

The discussion was evenings in the UK/Nights in the UK. Its not warm enough most of the year to not have a coat on in the UK. So I don't get how people seem to like May with the lighter evenings than in July/August.. Though the nights are shorter they are warmer in the summer months. I prefer warmth to sunlight 

[Dark Horse]

49 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

The discussion was evenings in the UK/Nights in the UK. Its not warm enough most of the year to not have a coat on in the UK. So I don't get how people seem to like May with the lighter evenings than in July/August.. Though the nights are shorter they are warmer in the summer months. I prefer warmth to sunlight 

Whilst it's not warm now it's still what most people would say is mild and not truly cold, you don't really need a hat and gloves at this time of year do you along with a coat? unless you are unwell or otherwise want to look out of place. That's the point. We have a growing season in the UK of about 5 to 6 months, which is decent given how far north we are because the nights are not cold now. If they were cold most of the year like you originally said nothing would grow properly. Kind of common sense really.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Dark Horse

[Sunny76]

7 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Whilst it's not warm now it's still what most people would say is mild and not truly cold, you don't really need a hat and gloves at this time of year do you along with a coat? unless you are unwell or otherwise want to look out of place. That's the point. We have a growing season in the UK of about 5 to 6 months, which is decent given how far north we are because the nights are not cold now. If they were cold most of the year like you originally said nothing would grow properly. Kind of common sense really.

Nights were quite cold, up until just a few days ago.

Nights and mornings have only just warmed up a little over the last few days. This time last week, it was still very cold. 
 

Anyway, the warmer days are here finally, so I’ll stop complaining now, and look forward to some warm or even hot days during the next 4 or so months. 

[weatherguru14]

16 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Whilst it's not warm now it's still what most people would say is mild and not truly cold, you don't really need a hat and gloves at this time of year do you along with a coat? unless you are unwell or otherwise want to look out of place. That's the point. We have a growing season in the UK of about 5 to 6 months, which is decent given how far north we are because the nights are not cold now. If they were cold most of the year like you originally said nothing would grow properly. Kind of common sense really.

Flowers grow in most places on earth. even in the tundra (like i'm suppose to be living)Near Leeds can be consider that by them in the tropical south. But I digest. I think  speaking on sunshine and length of days. I prefer warmth even ifs cloudy in the summer. Feeling comfortable is better than in early spring when its sunny but a nip in the air.

And yes we live in temperate climate, but not overly warm. but far from very cold.. just you cant really go without a jacket/coat for most of the year. I look forward to that and like Sunny says plenty of good summer weather and i'll be happy  

 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Stelmer said:

Most of the wall units will do heat/cool. Keywords are inverter heat pump as you get more in return for your electric consumption. I was looking into it as a viable option to replace the CH and not get a system locked to heating water.

 

Thank you sweetie

[Dark Horse]

18 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Nights were quite cold, up until just a few days ago.

Nights and mornings have only just warmed up a little over the last few days. This time last week, it was still very cold. 
 

Anyway, the warmer days are here finally, so I’ll stop complaining now, and look forward to some warm or even hot days during the next 4 or so months. 

Yeah I agree we had some chilly nights not long ago but they never last all year long and the temp rises fairly quickly with the early sunrises now.
Maybe that's a shame as I'd hardly ever have to cut my grass if it was chilly year round! haha.

I do get a satisfaction after it's done though and it's cool on your feet during hot weather. 

6 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Flowers grow in most places on earth. even in the tundra (like i'm suppose to be living)Near Leeds can be consider that by them in the tropical south. But I digest. I think  speaking on sunshine and length of days. I prefer warmth even ifs cloudy in the summer. Feeling comfortable is better than in early spring when its sunny but a nip in the air.

And yes we live in temperate climate, but not overly warm. but far from very cold.. just you cant really go without a jacket/coat for most of the year. I look forward to that and like Sunny says plenty of good summer weather and i'll be happy  

 

 

Yeah those are mostly hardy Arctic flowers native to those areas that grow for only 2-3 months of the year, you can't grow a wide variety of crops like you can here in Britain, it's just not possible. Also you want to try living west of the Pennines. It's cloudier here on average and wetter.

[summer blizzard]

20 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I think the pattern of this summer (especially early on) will be set next month…in my opinion it’ll be brief plumes followed by thunder then the Atlantic, rinse repeat. 
 

Potential for a decent thundery period IMO.

I've actually been thinking of something like 2019 or 2020. The signals I see for the May-July period suggests things generally get worse as we progress and it's not like May is stating out great as it is. It would not be a shock to me if we see the best of early summer in the mid-May to mid-June period before the anomalous return of the westerlies in mid June delivers the gut punch to heat lovers (albeit summer showers even from the north can be thundery). Probably the best of any summer heat would be in the late core so early to mid August before the standard collapse in the second half.

[Scuba steve]

I’ve a gut feeling , we could be in for a cold pooling event like 2012 though not as as bad ,no I do think it will be a poor summer

 

[damianslaw]

I think its the general dankness that in perception creates a cold feeling. Grey wet skies = cold in most people's minds, even when temps are in the 20s... its almost we are psychologically conditioned to think sunshine = warm and rain cold.. the strength of the sun from now until late August compensates for any chilly airmass. 

[B87]

My summer prediction from a few weeks ago already looking unlikely, I think most would be happy with it though.

Jun: 22c/12c, 20mm rain, 230 sun hrs

July: 25c/14c, 30mm rain, 260 sun hrs

Aug: 23c/15c, 80mm rain, 190 sun hrs

[Sunny76]

50 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I think its the general dankness that in perception creates a cold feeling. Grey wet skies = cold in most people's minds, even when temps are in the 20s... its almost we are psychologically conditioned to think sunshine = warm and rain cold.. the strength of the sun from now until late August compensates for any chilly airmass. 

My uncle said summer 1980 felt like this. It was muggy and thundery, but he said it gave you the impression it was cold all the time. 

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Scuba steve said:

I’ve a gut feeling , we could be in for a cold pooling event like 2012 though not as as bad ,no I do think it will be a poor summer

 

Yeah I think similar too, a lot can and will likely change, but after 2022 I would bet this summer to be either a more standard one for Britain or a poor one like 2012.

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, Metwatch said:

Yeah I think similar too, a lot can and will likely change, but after 2022 I would bet this summer to be either a more standard one for Britain or a poor one like 2012.

Definitely a front loaded summer, with a very poor middle, and I now think July will be the stinker month and the first half of August will be poor. Mid May to mid June being hot and sunny, and a late August hot snap with storms similar to 1987. 

[Frigid]

Here's my Summer 2023 prediction:

June - Warm and dry, after a depressing Spring, summer will arrive (similar to 2021). Days of unbroken sunshine and 30Cs across the country. Warmest month of the summer, CET 16.8C EWP 35mm.

July - Nondescript month but will feature the warmest weather of the summer. CET 16.2C EWP 72mm. 

August - Complete contrast to last year, dull and wet. Typical August weather (pre-2022). Coolest month with a CET of 15.5C, EWP 107mm.

So a front loaded summer, haven't had one of them since 2017 so will be interesting to see.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

Here's my Summer 2023 prediction:

June - Warm and dry, after a depressing Spring, summer will arrive (similar to 2021). Days of unbroken sunshine and 30Cs across the country. Warmest month of the summer, CET 16.8C EWP 35mm.

July - Nondescript month but will feature the warmest weather of the summer. CET 16.2C EWP 72mm. 

August - Complete contrast to last year, dull and wet. Typical August weather (pre-2022). Coolest month with a CET of 15.5C, EWP 107mm.

So a front loaded summer, haven't had one of them since 2017 so will be interesting to see.

This type of summer would suit me, apart from August where a 1993 type month i.e. cool but dry would be better!

[stainesbloke]

I reckon the UK will have a decent summer this year, pretty settled but not overly hot. Central Europe will be wetter and cooler than normal. Based on nothing but gut feeling

[weatherguru14]

I think summer 2023 will be the hottest summer on record.. starting off global warming where the earth will burn to a cinder in the next 10 years. I jest of course..Be a normal summer this year and that will be mixed. July often delivers so i expect an heatwave in that month 

[Guest]

I have no sense on how summer will play out, clearly the chances of anything like last year are minimal so statistically it leads me to think we’re in for something similar to 2021 (but more widespread) which given the dullness of this spring would be incredibly dispersing!! 

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

My uncle said summer 1980 felt like this. It was muggy and thundery, but he said it gave you the impression it was cold all the time. 

I think summer 1980 actually was unseasonably cool. I am old enough to remember it, though I still had a single-figure age. It was dull, cool and sometimes wet, with just two good spells: about a week from July 21st, and a longer one in the second half of August which was the best part of the summer, with some classic sunny, slightly warm late-summer conditions

I once had a weather book which included the daily readings from Rogate Weather Station, West Sussex (near Petersfield) for July 1980, literally only a few miles from where I lived at the time. ISTR the mean max was only 19 or so, and every day to the 20th failed to reach 21. Extremely poor for a site in inland Southern England which ought to have been reaching 22 or so even in those days.

The MWR gives a mean max of 2 below normal for the South East and Central Southern region for July:

MWR_1980_07 | Met Office UA

DIGITAL.NMLA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

along with 133% rainfall, and +5 rain-days, and the comment "maxima rarely exceeding 20C anywhere in the UK" for the first 20 days.

June was even worse for rainfall but less anomalously cool:

MWR_1980_06 | Met Office UA

DIGITAL.NMLA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Mean max -0.8C relative to normal, rainfall 216%, rain-days +5. On the other hand it was slightly more interesting as it had more in the way of thundery showers and less in the way of dull conditions with persistent rainfall than July.

August had just a one-word summary, "unsettled".

MWR_1980_08 | Met Office UA

DIGITAL.NMLA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

But the stats for SE and central S England were much less dire than June or July, in fact it was slightly warmer than average by day (+0.2) and drier than average (91%), rain-days -4, and sunshine close to average at 96%. This accords with my memories of persistent fine weather in the second half (but a poor first half). Similar, I think, to the Augusts 1978 and 1988 which were also better in the south and worse in the north.

Perhaps summer 1980 could be compared with 2007 and 2012, in the sense that it started very, very bad, but August was OK.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

56 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I have no sense on how summer will play out, clearly the chances of anything like last year are minimal so statistically it leads me to think we’re in for something similar to 2021 (but more widespread) which given the dullness of this spring would be incredibly dispersing!! 

I'm thinking that summer will be duller than normal, warmer by CET but max temps slightly lower than the norm for the 1989-2006 period, and rainfall maybe about average. In other words, something very typical for recent years.

On the other hand it would be extraordinarily unlucky if every month of the spring and summer was dull and somewhat unsettled - so I do think one of the three summer months will be better (warmer, sunnier and drier by day) than average. My hunch is June as we've now had quite a run of meh Junes and June, longer-term, has tended to be less westerly than July/Aug. There are also plenty of examples of unsettled Mays leading into fine Junes, so the possibility cannot be precluded.

This really is guesswork, but I'd say June +1.0, 90% rainfall and 110% sunshine, with Azores high extensions separated by cool, wet Atlantic spells of short duration.

July I think will be cloudy with close to average rainfall, the first half cloudy and dry and the second half wet. +0.5 by CET (caused by mild nights and a heat-spike), 100% rainfall (but second half much wetter than the first) and 90% sunshine.

August I'm guessing at cloudier and wetter than normal, but maybe not drastically so. Lets say +0.2 CET (again mild nights), 110% rainfall, 90% sunshine.

Then a fine September, with the second half in particular dry, in contrast to recent years. September to be the most anomalously warm and sunny month of the year, but will also stick my head out and go for a dry and settled October this year as we've now had a run of four unsettled Octobers since 2019 so surely it's got to break sometime (hasn't it?)

All just guesswork though!

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[John S2]

My current thoughts on summer 2023 is that it will not be similar to any of the last 3 summers because I am expecting considerable variability of weather type. Conversely, the last 3 summers each had a persistent theme:

2020 - 3rd wettest on record [out of 150] here in NW England. All 3 months wet.

2021 - Quite special in NW England further North than Manchester, contrasting with poor summer in SE England

2022 - Consistently warm/hot with the good conditions expanding northwards as summer progressed

The main reason to be positive about summer 2023 is that we will be transitioning from La Nina to El Nino, but I don't think it is guaranteed that the El Nino will be particularly strong. The years I have been looking at all had considerable variability of weather type from month to month, most having at least one very good month and one poor/abysmal. No common theme about which month will be best or worst. Hope to post more detail in due course. The Atlantic SST anomaly pattern is interesting.

Edited May 1, 2023 by John S2
additional info

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I think summer 1980 actually was unseasonably cool. I am old enough to remember it, though I still had a single-figure age. It was dull, cool and sometimes wet, with just two good spells: about a week from July 21st, and a longer one in the second half of August which was the best part of the summer, with some classic sunny, slightly warm late-summer conditions

I once had a weather book which included the daily readings from Rogate Weather Station, West Sussex (near Petersfield) for July 1980, literally only a few miles from where I lived at the time. ISTR the mean max was only 19 or so, and every day to the 20th failed to reach 21. Extremely poor for a site in inland Southern England which ought to have been reaching 22 or so even in those days.

The MWR gives a mean max of 2 below normal for the South East and Central Southern region for July:

MWR_1980_07 | Met Office UA

DIGITAL.NMLA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

along with 133% rainfall, and +5 rain-days, and the comment "maxima rarely exceeding 20C anywhere in the UK" for the first 20 days.

June was even worse for rainfall but less anomalously cool:

MWR_1980_06 | Met Office UA

DIGITAL.NMLA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Mean max -0.8C relative to normal, rainfall 216%, rain-days +5. On the other hand it was slightly more interesting as it had more in the way of thundery showers and less in the way of dull conditions with persistent rainfall than July.

August had just a one-word summary, "unsettled".

MWR_1980_08 | Met Office UA

DIGITAL.NMLA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

But the stats for SE and central S England were much less dire than June or July, in fact it was slightly warmer than average by day (+0.2) and drier than average (91%), rain-days -4, and sunshine close to average at 96%. This accords with my memories of persistent fine weather in the second half (but a poor first half). Similar, I think, to the Augusts 1978 and 1988 which were also better in the south and worse in the north.

Perhaps summer 1980 could be compared with 2007 and 2012, in the sense that it started very, very bad, but August was OK.

We were on a canal trip in Hertfordshire, and out of London for a week. My family said we were hit by some severe storms while moored up near Bishops stortford( we started off from Broxbourne).

This was during the early part of June 1980 I think, so there must have been a hot period of weather then. 

[Earthshine]

Looking forward to that first 30C day this year.  Shame we get so little proper summer weather compared to other European countries (and yes I know Britain has a temperate climate for anyone who jumps at me!).