Summer 2023 chat

[Dark Horse]

On 04/05/2023 at 20:35, damianslaw said:

In the Lake District, by far worst summer of 21st century so far was 2012. Next tier of poor summers 2011, 2017 and 2020.

Average summers 2010 - cool but not a washout, 2015, 2016.

Decent - 2014, 2019, 2021, the latter was often sunny and dry. 

Very good 2013, 2022

Superb 2018 though August deteriorated markedly. I include May as summer, though its not, it was excellent and felt like summer. 

Summer 2015 was an odd one. Had that brief intense plume on the 1st July, which brought Wimbledon's hottest ever day, not sure if that still stands, but the rest of the summer was mainly cool.

[Sunny76]

3 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Summer 2015 was an odd one. Had that brief intense plume on the 1st July, which brought Wimbledon's hottest ever day, not sure if that still stands, but the rest of the summer was mainly cool.

I was out of the country for that day, so the summer as a whole was just one cool cloudy period, give or take a few warm sunny days.

[B87]

9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Updated thoughts with April's data don't really change much. 

Signal is for most settled weather (though modelling looks worse this month) to be in May and August. 

Signal for June and July is close to average but damp.

 

May looks anything but settled! Wet June/July with an average August sounds suspiciously like 2012.

[Sunny76]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

May looks anything but settled! Wet June/July with an average August sounds suspiciously like 2012.

A poor June and July kind of writes summer off. A good august won’t save summer if the previous months have been poor.

[B87]

Just now, Sunny76 said:

A poor June and July kind of writes summer off. A good august won’t save summer if the previous months have been poor.

After a poor March, April and now May, any poor summer month will be a disaster.

[alexisj9]

On 25/04/2023 at 10:33, Sunny76 said:

Yeah I know, a few weeks of hot sunny weather will be a catastrophe! 

2-3 weeks of cold is just as bad, if not even worse. The December cold spell was worse in my opinion compared to the week or so of 34c last year.

For some it can be, not everyone can control their body temperature in extreme heat 

On 25/04/2023 at 13:18, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yeah I don't really know why people only seem to consider the impacts of 30c+ weather, and then ignore the flipsides of a cold spell. The latter sees elderly people literally freezing to death in their own homes, and health issues arising for many people who are on the breadline and so cannot afford to put the heating on with the crazy energy costs. This is before we get on to how it affects homeless folk living on the streets...

Our 30c+ heatwaves last, what, a week at the very most, and other than for people with serious existing conditions, all they do is make sleeping a bit uncomfortable. I might be wrong, but I don't think people are dying in their homes because of a few days of mid 30s temps.

We aren't going to need to reformulate our entire country's built infrastructure to make air-con the norm because of the potential of 1 or 2 weeks of 30c+ weather in the summer. Same as we don't invest in adverse weather capabilities for our transport systems to the capacity that Norway, Sweden, Finland etc do, just because we might get 1 or 2 weeks max of thick snow in a cold winter. 

Worth noting that alot of the housing in Europe's warmer countries (Spain, Italy, Croatia etc) do not have air-conditioning, and they have temps of 30c+ for weeks on end.

I comment about the dangers of both.

Edited May 7, 2023 by alexisj9

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I was out of the country for that day, so the summer as a whole was just one cool cloudy period, give or take a few warm sunny days.

September 2015 was also cool (coolest since 1993 I think?) and had it not been for the exceptionally mild November and 'warm' December, 2015 would have been a relatively cool year, going by post millennium standards.

[TwisterGirl81]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

A poor June and July kind of writes summer off. A good august won’t save summer if the previous months have been poor.

Followed on from a poor spring, this really would suck so bad and really would be bad luck. I hope this is not how it goes.

Oh how nice it would be to life in a climate where you knew you would get a good long summer 

Edited May 7, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[weatherguru14]

I wouldnt worry about this summer being a complete right off. July usually delivers a good month.. Its very rare its shocking.. for instance to me... 2013/2014/2018/2021/2022. were excellent Julys.. so most Julys are good in my opinion. And at least the weather is starting to warm up now. I don't think 2023 will be an ultra dry summer. But we'll have plenty of nice summer days.. Like Michael Fish says. 2 fine days and a thunder storm 

[Don]

47 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Oh how nice it would be to life in a climate where you knew you would get a good long summer 

Good summers and cold winters would be good.  Something for everyone!

[Greyhound81]

There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees.  He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s.  

Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?    

Edited May 8, 2023 by Greyhound81

[Don]

21 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:

There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees.  He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s.  

Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?    

An African plume only bringing UK temps as high as 35C?! lol! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

55 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:

There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees.  He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s.  

Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?    

All hes done is just taken a guess. Anyone can do that and "predict" a heatwave at some point during summer and they'll most likely be correct too. 

[weatherguru14]

These people who predict the weather so far off are jesters and nothing else.. How can you predict weather 3 months in advance and we have zero idea what the weather will be like in 10 days? 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I personally can't see 35 Celsius being reached anywhere this year. There will obviously be the usual heatwave thrown in, but nothing out of the ordinary - early 30s at most. I am going for a fairly benign summer.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[stainesbloke]

7 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Followed on from a poor spring, this really would suck so bad and really would be bad luck. I hope this is not how it goes.

Oh how nice it would be to life in a climate where you knew you would get a good long summer 

Agree. I’d be happy with 3 months of around 25°C every day, and am happy to dodge extreme heat. As long as there’re some thunderstorms and lots of sunny weather and a lack of pointless cloud

[B87]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Agree. I’d be happy with 3 months of around 25°C every day, and am happy to dodge extreme heat. As long as there’re some thunderstorms and lots of sunny weather and a lack of pointless cloud

Something enough to brown the grass off, otherwise it doesn't feel like summer.

I do think we will have at least one average or good month this summer, but it won't be enough to undo the damage caused by this spring and the rest of summer.

[stainesbloke]

56 minutes ago, B87 said:

Something enough to brown the grass off, otherwise it doesn't feel like summer.

I do think we will have at least one average or good month this summer, but it won't be enough to undo the damage caused by this spring and the rest of summer.

Grass does tend to yellow somewhat towards the latter part of summer especially in S and E Britain, quite normal away from the cooler and wetter NW. 
If summer is decent then I’ll forget about this spring, it’s best forgotten anyway as it’s been as naff here as in the UK

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees.  He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s.  

Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?    

I have some seaweed which is slightly ahead of him ……….

[bluearmy]

The updated ec seasonal looks ok

june has slight high height anom to our east and northeast with higher than average precip over sw U.K. in tandem with lower than av slp to the sw.    Temps generally average 

july has above av heights, slp and temps with below av precip 

aug looks pretty average but being month 3 means less relevant in any case as a prediction 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

10 hours ago, Don said:

Good summers and cold winters would be good.  Something for everyone!

Absolutely, if I could pick any climate it would be somewhere like Colorado, Oregon or North California. Fantastic summers for sunshine hours and warmth (but not crazy heat like Nevada or New Mexico), great winters for snow and 'bluebird sky' days, and Spring and Autumn being a reliable transition period. 

Obviously the hiking and outdoorsy opportunities there go without saying as well...

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I personally can't see 35 Celsius being reached anywhere this year. There will obviously be the usual heatwave thrown in, but nothing out of the ordinary - early 30s at most. I am going for a fairly benign summer.

Yeah, I think a few days of 30c with a peak of 33c this year. Think it will be in early August or possibly sometime during the last week of August this year.

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Absolutely, if I could pick any climate it would be somewhere like Colorado, Oregon or North California. Fantastic summers for sunshine hours and warmth (but not crazy heat like Nevada or New Mexico), great winters for snow and 'bluebird sky' days, and Spring and Autumn being a reliable transition period. 

Obviously the hiking and outdoorsy opportunities there go without saying as well...

Sounds perfect, but I would probably prefer Canada to America, as there’s less chance of getting shot by some random psychopath.

Toronto has a decent climate, although winters there would be too cold at times, but I do remember lots of cold sunny periods(similar to December 2022), and summers can be pleasantly sunny. Sometimes it gets too hot,  but never for too long. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

10 hours ago, Don said:

An African plume only bringing UK temps as high as 35C?! lol! 

That was my thought lol

[summer blizzard]

12 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees.  He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s.  

Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?    

Madden rose to fame in 09 as an A level student who forecast the bad summer but got his prediction in the Express. He is no more qualified than any of us and writes clickbait forecasts.

So no, I don't tend to take much notice.

[Sunny76]

I think Gav is possibly better with his weather forecasts, but he failed to predict the hot summer of 2018, as he was using the ‘years with 8, always have a poor summer’ nonsense.