Summer 2023 chat

[Snowshine]

The argument that some people here have against climate change doesn't really make sense. Just because a heatwave in a particular location hasn't been the most severe in history, doesn't mean that on a global scale temperatures haven't increased.

Having said that, I do think heat warnings are being issued unnecessarily at times, and consequently people may end up taking them less seriously. For instance, in Greece they issued a "red heat warning" in the Ionian Islands where temperatures are only slightly higher than normal.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Snowshine

[Sunny76]

19 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Compared to 2021 and 22, it's been a distinctly chilly July. Nights have been milder than the days.. we've only reached 20C 5 times this month. 

Resembles the April we had where it was devoid of any warmth, but without any highs or lows it's been sitting near average. 

July 21 wasn’t great either, apart from a week of sunny hot weather. The southeast was a dull fest during that month. 

[Frigid]

9 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

July 21 wasn’t great either, apart from a week of sunny hot weather. The southeast was a dull fest during that month. 

True, it was much different in the NW. July 2021 was as warm as 2022. 

[Dark Horse]

13 minutes ago, Frigid said:

True, it was much different in the NW. July 2021 was as warm as 2022. 

Yes from memory we had a week long hot spell. In our area we haven't had a truly terrible summer for a while really, admittedly this month hasn't been great if you like heat and prolonged sun but for all we know August could be like June just gone which would be 2 decent summer months out of 3.

[Sunny76]

14 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Yes from memory we had a week long hot spell. In our area we haven't had a truly terrible summer for a while really, admittedly this month hasn't been great if you like heat and prolonged sun but for all we know August could be like June just gone which would be 2 decent summer months out of 3.

Hmm, I don’t bank on August being great, but I’m happy to be proved wrong

[raz.org.rain]

58 minutes ago, Snowshine said:

The argument that some people here have against climate change doesn't really make sense. Just because a heatwave in a particular location hasn't been the most severe in history, doesn't mean that on a global scale temperatures haven't increased.

Having said that, I do think heat warnings are being issued unnecessarily at times, and consequently people may end up taking them less seriously. For instance, in Greece they issued a "red heat warning" in the Ionian Islands where temperatures are only slightly higher than normal.

It's fair to say that the current setup in the UK is an unusual atmospheric response to slow developments in the Pacific. That is to say that if things had progressed as expected, the Jet Stream would be much further north and we would have been stuck under the heat dome currently causing chaos in southern Europe. If this persistent pattern of lows hadn't got stuck, I'd expect we would have beat last year's record pretty easily by now. So it's all eyes on what happens for summer of 2024, as I expect all the synoptics are there for a seriously hot summer from southern to northern Europe.
 

The "new norm" is for the Jet Stream to buckle around the North Atlantic and throw itself way far north of the continent and through north Scandinavia, hence the warm summers we've had in the past decade. This year is an unusual one I don't expect to see a repeat of. I'll stick my neck on the line and say next year will beat the record temperature by just under 1°c. If the correct concoction of scenarios lined up and we get the harshest possible outcome I would not be surprised to see a new record of ~43°c based on what the ensembles have picked up on (albeit insignificant outlier) potential forecast outcomes in recent summers, and the fact that the previous record had the potential to be fractionally warmer if the wind and cloud direction on that day had been ideal for it. It wasn't that long ago that we had one outlier predicting a daily high of just below 45° with ~39° at midnight in Belgium.
 

I suspect it's a truth not many people want to hear, but I'm afraid (I should emphasise afraid) that intense heat plumes are the future of our summers.

Having delivered that bad news, I believe the latest ensemble outputs are showing more support for a warmup going into August. If everything lines up properly, we could even see some seriously notable heat pumped up from the south! I've seen a few expressions of concern that august could deliver some serious heat, it surprises me as I didn't think I'd see such concern again this year.

Edited July 20, 2023 by razorgrain

[danm]

Nice day today, plenty of sunshine, some fair weather cloud. 23c

[adrianh]

Chilly breeze today. Its been wet on and off for weeks but first time its felt like cool

[stainesbloke]

A pleasant day here with long sunny spells, have dodged the showers and it’s currently 24°C with a moderate NW’ly breeze. 
Not looking forward to the weekend’s weather in London, looking rather vile.

[Bristawl Si]

Cooled right off here, as cloud rolled in. 17c.

I've been out with a pal, had a few beers and we retreated inside pub, as it clouded over, to escape the cooler temps in last hour. 

The very duff month of July continues.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Bristle Si

[raz.org.rain]

I'm surprised there's no "cool haters' club" thread yet!

[markyo]

6 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Media again, doing their usual and scaremongering. 

It’s happened before mate. And this is just something people will have to get use to.

I'm getting the feeling seriously that you don't understand the impact of the raw data. Its not scaremongering, its fact. Sorry mate but i totally disagree with your view on this one.

[Freeze]

3 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

I'm surprised there's no "cool haters' club" thread yet!

There is, reserved mainly for winter.

[Badgers01]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

A pleasant day here with long sunny spells, have dodged the showers and it’s currently 24°C with a moderate NW’ly breeze. 
Not looking forward to the weekend’s weather in London, looking rather vile.

We do well in the south east generally with a light NW flow it’s felt almost like an old school perfect summers day here in Surrey ! 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, razorgrain said:

I'm surprised there's no "cool haters' club" thread yet!

That’s what this thread is at the moment.

[Summer8906]

While I am out of the country, this must surely end up likely to be a considerably worse month than July 2012 in the UK if this forecast is correct, which I appreciate it may not be:

London - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.COM

---

14-day weather forecast for London.

Two days reaching the dizzy heights of 22C for the next two weeks... in London! Three dry days for the rest of the month - again in London. So given it ought to be 23 or 24 this time of year, we're talking 14 consecutive days of below-average temperatures. If only we had that in winter!

Meanwhile here in Greece it's just becoming a little too hot. There seems to be little relent from 35C+ temps for the next week; the really hot weather was supposed to end Sunday but now looks like being extended to next Thursday. We had a nice summer here with moderate temps (around low 30s, at times cooler) hroughout most of July and August last year - and the UK also had a much better summer.

July 2023: a month of the uncomfortable extremes at both ends which looks like being challenging for large parts of Europe. I guess a narrow band from NW Spain to the Baltic will end up with a decent month.

Don't get me wrong, I like moderately hot weather but the 35+ temps are just going on for too long here, it's the longevity that's notable rather than any notable heat spike, as such.  Just like the very cool weather is going on for way too long in the UK.

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by Summer8906

[NorthSeaCloud]

It’s pathetic when it’s warmer in GREENLAND!

[Summer of 95]

Days 21C or above at Shawbury in "poor" Julys:

2020- 5

2015- 7

2012- 7

2009- 7

2007- 6

1998- 4

1993- 10 

1988- 0

2023 so far; 4, and the forecast is 17/18/19 every day for at least the next week. Average max for 91-20 is 21.1, and 20.9 for 81-10 so 21 is bang average over the two periods. No escaping it, this month has been poor and could well end up worse than any of the 07-12 lot on this measure (all the others in that spell had at least 10). 2020 really was dire until the last couple of days.

 

 

 

 

[Summer8906]

Just now, Summer of 95 said:

Days 21C or above at Shawbury in "poor" Julys:

2020- 5

2015- 7

2012- 7

2009- 7

2007- 6

1998- 4

1993- 10 

1988- 0

2023 so far; 4, and the forecast is 17/18/19 every day for at least the next week. Average max for 91-20 is 21.1, and 20.9 for 81-10 so 21 is bang average over the two periods. No escaping it, this month has been poor and could well end up worse than any of the 07-12 lot on this measure (all the others in that spell had at least 10). 2020 really was dire until the last couple of days.

 

I think unless the forecasts change it's extremely likely that July 2023 will be considerably worse than 2012. Remember that was half-decent after the 19th and featured a particularly good few days from around the 22nd-27th.

As for 2007, not sure. That month had three settled days at the end of the month, so if this doesn't happen, it could be argued that the month will be worse even than 2007. That year also had scattered sunny days earlier in the month, e.g. 16th, 18th, 22nd and 24th.

[damianslaw]

July 23 is fast becoming a replica of July 09, very wet, dull and cool.

Edited July 20, 2023 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

Just now, damianslaw said:

July 23 is fast becoming a replica of July 09, very wey, dull and cool.

Yup. Two hot days at the very start then abysmal.

Not been as wet up to this point here as 2009 but plenty of time for that to change for the month overall.

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

The July 1987 Greece heatwave was one of the worst and probably just as dangerous as this current one. It was over 40c then for a number of days.

Don’t think many Brits would be cancelling a Greek holiday in the summer of 1987, when we were witnessing a truly dire run of cool summers.

Summer 1980 in the USA was probably even worse compared to this current heatwave in Europe. The daytime highs were regularly hitting and exceeding 35c-40c.

It’s all happened before.

The heat haters just love to latch on to the fact it’s becoming dangerously hot, because they hate the heat, and want everyone else to live in a world where it’s damp and cool all year round.

 

You do know the USA is having a heatwave worse than that right now right?

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yup. Two hot days at the very start then abysmal.

Not been as wet up to this point here as 2009 but plenty of time for that to change for the month overall.

Im heading to Somerset, Sunday to Friday coming, not timed that well! Hoping for just one dry usable day..

Edited July 20, 2023 by damianslaw

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

You do know the USA is having a heatwave worse than that right now right?

And China. Also, it seems to happen every year these days. 

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

And China. Also, it seems to happen every year these days. 

China also broke its cold record last winter a astonishing 105 Celsius difference that’s crazy