Summer 2023 chat

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Spring in Spring

Summer in Summer

Autumn in Autumn

Winter in Winter

 

It's not hard to comprehend ...

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

No, that's not how it works.  People also enjoy cold/sunny crisp days in winter with occasional snow.  You cannot request people to let you have some nice summer weather (after an unsettled period) and then object to occasional colder/snowy weather in winter and want mild all the way.  We all have different preferences!

The other night, I had an awful nightmare: the UK celebrated its first 20C Christmas! 

[Harry's House]

On 30/07/2023 at 01:07, Summer of 95 said:

Can anyone on here remember July 1965? That seems to have been an absolute disaster of a summer month around these parts- Shawbury had a mean max of 17.4C, 119mm of rain and 104 hours of sunshine. Not as dull as 2010 or as wet as 2007, 2012 and potentially 2023, but that combination of cold, wet and dull surpasses any July, including 1988 (which had a very poor 17.8 C, 102mm- less than 2023, and a surprising 154 hours, nearly twice what 2010 had). I don't think I've seen it mentioned in Historic Weather or anywhere else on here. Was it as bad across the country?

As a boy in 1965, I remember that summer as just another of the poor summers which happened in the 1960s, but when I looked at Cardington's records, I could see what a dreadful month July of that year was, very likely the coolest, dullest and wettest on record there.

Mean Max: 18.5 deg C, highest max 22.4 deg C on 19th (both probable records).

Sunshine: 93.0 hours (very likely the only summer month there with less than 100 hours of sunshine).

Rainfall: 108.1 mm.

[Sunny76]

5 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Now that July 2023 is coming to it's monotonously grey end, here's what I hope to see from August up to the end of the year!

August 11th onwards (1st 10 or so days look like a continuation of the grey grot) 16 out of the last 21 days more or less wall to wall sunshine with a hot spell of 27-32 for 5 days in the mix.

September 2023- Sunniest September on record with a crazy 277 hours of sunshine and pleasant temperatures anywhere from 18-28 degrees.

October 2023- Another exceptionally sunny month with 195 hours of sun recorded, pushing back any SAD symptoms for those who suffer! Temps of around 16-23 degrees and a few interesting wind & rain storms near the end of the month with an eerie thick fog all day on Halloween!

November 2023- A freak Feb 2019 style period in the 1st half with 6 days of wall to wall sunshine and a max temp of 22 followed by a 2nd half with a mix of cold crisp sunshine and a surprise snow flurry in the last 4 days!

December 2023- Coldies and sun lovers rejoice as the month is full of 15 days of falling snow but also 12 days of cold but bright wall to wall sunshine around 2-7 degrees. A few days below zero as well to help the snow remain settled!

Do we have a deal?

Lol.

I like it, but here’s my prediction for the August to December period of 2023

You wont like it.

August 1st until 10th. Mostly average to cool with the unsettled and dull picture continuing.

August 12th until the close, a warm to hot sunny spell setting in, wall to wall sunshine. Widespread thunderstorms will move across the country on the weekend of the 19th-20th, both storms will be overnight affairs.

September starts off hot and sunny with mid to high 20s until the 5th.

A wet windy spell of weather sets in around the 6th, and it will remain rather warm and humid with more storms around during the 8th-10th. Some places missing them altogether.

12th until the close, a much cool period with wall to wall sunshine but daytime highs will feel chilly with maxes of 15-16c.

October - a cloudy muggy first half with daytime temps between 16-19c, after temps improve after the September chill.

Second half October will be warm and sunny with temps of around 16-20c, with the occasional 22c. 
 

A warm Halloween with 23c.

November - first half cloudy damp grey with no sunshine at all, with temps mainly between 15-19c. A very mild period of weather with night time temps of around 13-14c most nights.

Second half November will be average but still grey and cloudy with no sunshine, temps of 10-12c.

December - mild southwesterlies from the 1st until the 20th with daytime highs around 12-15c, and again overnight lows will be balmy with 10-12c being a regular occurrence.

Cold and frosty for Christmas? Snow? Surely right?

Sorry guys in good old 2023 fashion, the year that keeps on giving disappointment will continue to do so. 
 

A mild damp Christmas with cloudy conditions, but dry at least. Temps will be 12-14c in southern regions, and the north along with Scotland will be also mild with 10-11c.

Mild and cloudy to see us into 2024.

Sorry guys, don’t want this outcome but have a bad feeling this will be direction of travel.

[parhelion]

4 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

The other night, I had an awful nightmare: the UK celebrated its first 20C Christmas! 

That's an interesting one! Given what happened a couple of February's ago, you'd have to say there would be a very, very slim chance of such a scenario actually materialising.

As for now, despite the poor month as a whole, I don't think it has been as dreary as it has been today! 

[raz.org.rain]

Very wet here, got soaked waiting for the bus... but it didn't feel anywhere near as cold as you'd expect. Even when my coat is turning into a sponge and dripping, it just feels... mild? Couldn't see my breath or anything.

The model output thread continues to show support for improvement mid-August like the teleconnections analysts advised it would and got a lot of slack for.

[raz.org.rain]

6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I like it, but here’s my prediction for the August to December period of 2023

You wont like it.

August 1st until 10th. Mostly average to cool with the unsettled and dull picture continuing.

August 12th until the close, a warm to hot sunny spell setting in, wall to wall sunshine. Widespread thunderstorms will move across the country on the weekend of the 19th-20th, both storms will be overnight affairs.

September starts off hot and sunny with mid to high 20s until the 5th.

A wet windy spell of weather sets in around the 6th, and it will remain rather warm and humid with more storms around during the 8th-10th. Some places missing them altogether.

12th until the close, a much cool period with wall to wall sunshine but daytime highs will feel chilly with maxes of 15-16c.

October - a cloudy muggy first half with daytime temps between 16-19c, after temps improve after the September chill.

Second half October will be warm and sunny with temps of around 16-20c, with the occasional 22c. 
 

A warm Halloween with 23c.

November - first half cloudy damp grey with no sunshine at all, with temps mainly between 15-19c. A very mild period of weather with night time temps of around 13-14c most nights.

Second half November will be average but still grey and cloudy with no sunshine, temps of 10-12c.

December - mild southwesterlies from the 1st until the 20th with daytime highs around 12-15c, and again overnight lows will be balmy with 10-12c being a regular occurrence.

Cold and frosty for Christmas? Snow? Surely right?

Sorry guys in good old 2023 fashion, the year that keeps on giving disappointment will continue to do so. 
 

A mild damp Christmas with cloudy conditions, but dry at least. Temps will be 12-14c in southern regions, and the north along with Scotland will be also mild with 10-11c.

Mild and cloudy to see us into 2024.

Sorry guys, don’t want this outcome but have a bad feeling this will be direction of travel.

Mild and wet winter does seem the plausible outcome. I'd imagine that'll bring a lot of storms too. Does make you wonder though, what counts as a "winter heatwave" and will we ever hear those words spoken in our lifetime.

[Harry's House]

23 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

57 years ago today, a momentous event took place in London as England won the football World Cup for the first and only time. The tournament took place between 11th and 30th July 1966 and the weather was mediocre throughout, bar 23rd July when the infamous England v Argentina game was played at Wembley in blazing sunshine. A parallel could be perhaps be drawn with the weather in July 2023, and if so, take heart, my family went on holiday to the South Coast in mid-August for 2 weeks and the weather was perfect throughout. I don't think we've yet seen the last of summer 2023! 

Living in Essex, 1966 was earliest summer that I remember in some detail. After a disappointing July and early August, the second half of August was much better with a fine sunny spell for perhaps a week and pretty good weather in September to follow.

[Alderc 2.0]

Last day of July, 3pm and just 16.6C here. Mid afternoon temps that low are rare here! 

[Sunny76]

16 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

Mild and wet winter does seem the plausible outcome. I'd imagine that'll bring a lot of storms too. Does make you wonder though, what counts as a "winter heatwave" and will we ever hear those words spoken in our lifetime.

We seem to get years with disappointing summers followed by crappy mild winters. Just have a hunch 2023 will fall into the 1988/97 and 2015 category.

[stainesbloke]

45 minutes ago, Don said:

No, that's not how it works.  People also enjoy cold/sunny crisp days in winter with occasional snow.  You cannot request people to let you have some nice summer weather (after an unsettled period) and then object to occasional colder/snowy weather in winter and want mild all the way.  We all have different preferences!

I don’t think that’s exactly what he meant, but I could have misunderstood 

37 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

The other night, I had an awful nightmare: the UK celebrated its first 20C Christmas! 

Oooh, barbecue turkey! 
But seriously, no

[Don]

57 minutes ago, B87 said:

Yet often, these people want snow and ice in winter and also want summer to be written off/constantly below average.

I don't mind the occasional below average day, as long as winter or summer ends up average (most days 8-9c in winter and 23-24c in summer).

Oh I appreciate that and I don't want a cool/unsettled summer, just not too hot, with temps ideally around 25-28C, and the occasional 30C.  Basically warm enough to enjoy summer evenings outside and still be comfortable.  Although I have not felt cold this July, I have certainly not regarded it as being a good month.  However, at least there are now tentative signs for improvements on the horizon.

14 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I don’t think that’s exactly what he meant, but I could have misunderstood 

No misunderstanding, I was referring to a previous post.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Don

[NEVES SCREAMER]

20 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Last day of July, 3pm and just 16.6C here. Mid afternoon temps that low are rare here! 

Louise Lear BBC weather this morning at 10.40am on Test Match Special advising plenty of play with just the chance of an 'isolated' shower......as the rain lashes down for an hour and a half at least.What chance have you got predicting 2 weeks ahead when they haven't got a clue what will happen in the next 3 hours !

[alexisj9]

43 minutes ago, sunnysideup said:

That's an interesting one! Given what happened a couple of February's ago, you'd have to say there would be a very, very slim chance of such a scenario actually materialising.

As for now, despite the poor month as a whole, I don't think it has been as dreary as it has been today! 

Agreed today plus yesterday, were the only two day bad weather outcomes down here.

[Alderc 2.0]

1 minute ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Louise Lear BBC weather this morning at 10.40am on Test Match Special advising plenty of play with just the chance of an 'isolated' shower......as the rain lashes down for an hour and a half at least.What chance have you got predicting 2 weeks ahead when they haven't got a clue what will happen in the next 3 hours !

TV forecasts today have again been dire and it never looked like being anywhere near a playable afternoon. Goes back to what I was saying in the model thread a couple of days ago about admitting errors! Bet there’ll be no ‘sorry all, effed this one up today’ 

[Dusk1983]

3 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Louise Lear BBC weather this morning at 10.40am on Test Match Special advising plenty of play with just the chance of an 'isolated' shower......as the rain lashes down for an hour and a half at least.What chance have you got predicting 2 weeks ahead when they haven't got a clue what will happen in the next 3 hours !

Exactly. It makes me laugh to see the effort made to read computer models of 10 days time. We can’t even predict if it will rain in 3 hours!

[Don]

54 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

The other night, I had an awful nightmare: the UK celebrated its first 20C Christmas! 

Sooner or later, it will likely come true! 

46 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

Mild and wet winter does seem the plausible outcome. I'd imagine that'll bring a lot of storms too. Does make you wonder though, what counts as a "winter heatwave" and will we ever hear those words spoken in our lifetime.

Well, I would say we had a 'winter heatwave' in February 2019 when 70f was breached!

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

We seem to get years with disappointing summers followed by crappy mild winters. Just have a hunch 2023 will fall into the 1988/97 and 2015 category.

With a potential strong El Nino on the cards, combined with a warm world generally, this is probably more than likely!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

9 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Louise Lear BBC weather this morning at 10.40am on Test Match Special advising plenty of play with just the chance of an 'isolated' shower......as the rain lashes down for an hour and a half at least.What chance have you got predicting 2 weeks ahead when they haven't got a clue what will happen in the next 3 hours !

Too true. I can see from simply looking out my window, nothing about this weather is 'isolated'...it's been consistently moist in varying degrees for most of the day, ranging from drizzle to full-on rain. 

Isolated showers is a brief bit of summer rain before the sun comes back out again.

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

TV forecasts today have again been dire and it never looked like being anywhere near a playable afternoon. Goes back to what I was saying in the model thread a couple of days ago about admitting errors! Bet there’ll be no ‘sorry all, effed this one up today’ 

I doubt they will, this trough front or whatever didn't really show up anywhere, not as strong as it is anyway.

[Lord Grogon]

12 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

TV forecasts today have again been dire and it never looked like being anywhere near a playable afternoon. Goes back to what I was saying in the model thread a couple of days ago about admitting errors! Bet there’ll be no ‘sorry all, effed this one up today’ 

I do find it strange how a same day forecast can be so wrong. The TV forecast I posted earlier was from 8am this morning. Surely they would have seen the rain band was further north. It was an organised thing, not just convection.

I hope it is just me being an ignorant plank and missing things. 
But sometimes I worry that a lot of modern forecasts are simply “computer says”. Too much pulling data direct from models, that can easily be wrong by a couple of hundred miles. Less money/time available for the instinctive human bits. 

[cheeky_monkey]

fun fact looking at the stats for my location...May has been the warmest month of the year thus for for daytime highs with an average high of 24.1c...June was 23.5c and July is at 22.6c ..had 8 days above 30c prior to June 13th and none since.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

I do find it strange how a same day forecast can be so wrong. The TV forecast I posted earlier was from 8am this morning. Surely they would have seen the rain band was further north. It was an organised thing, not just convection.

I hope it is just me being an ignorant plank and missing things. 
But sometimes I worry that a lot of modern forecasts are simply “computer says”. Too much pulling data direct from models, that can easily be wrong by a couple of hundred miles. Less money/time available for the instinctive human bits. 

Probably, as BBC tend to use the twelve hours before ecmf forecast. I've been impressed with ITV local news weather forecasts though, normally correct for here. Think they still use met office forecasts.

Not sure about any other channels, as haven't seen their weather forecasts. Sometimes you can see in the presenters face on the BBC, that they don't actually believe what they are saying. It's weird.

[Methuselah]

Could the forecast for the coming week be any worse? 

 

[Faronstream]

Without the need to count the last day of july it's clear that this july will have the lowest average high temperature for my location since 1998 beating both 2007 and 2012 

1965: 18,7c (must been horrific)

----------------------------------------

1998: 20,3c

2023: 20,4c

2007:20,7c

2009:20,9c

2012:21,6c