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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the Spring chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

GFS Tuesday 

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Storm

ECM Tuesday

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Chart, Plot, Sea, Water, Person

I know which I want! 

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

EC pushing milder weather from the SW much closer to the UK by Wednesday, a battleground scenario here and with blocking weaker around the Iceland area it could well make inroads.

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

Oh... no...

Could contain: Outdoors, Chart, Plot, Nature

 

But could be very interesting. Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Modern Art, Outdoors, Person, Accessories, Face, Head

Edited by Stuie
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Yesterdays 12z day 7

image.thumb.gif.34325f87173f33f41ac9c79751806935.gif
 

Todays day 6

image.thumb.gif.b8131d6fdec3ba3529b7f26cf78fa8b4.gif
 

Looks like the more aggressive southwards push of cold air may very well end the spell pretty swiftly unless the low gets squeezed southwards.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Im sorry but that is a pretty dissapointing ecm and at an early stage aswell!!!not really much snow early on either!!!

Yes, might be some snow but the mild air is close behind 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Im sorry but that is a pretty dissapointing ecm and at an early stage aswell!!!not really much snow early on either!!!

Hopefully an outlier and will change next run. Front dissipates and it’s cold and dry for many by midweek 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Plant, Vegetation, Atlas, Outdoors, Nature, Rainforest, Tree

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goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Hopefully an outlier and will change next run. Front dissipates and it’s cold and dry for many by midweek 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Plant, Vegetation, Atlas, Outdoors, Nature, Rainforest, Tree

uk snow shield on full power here

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hopefully an outlier and will change next run. Front dissipates and it’s cold and dry for many by midweek 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Plant, Vegetation, Atlas, Outdoors, Nature, Rainforest, Tree

Yep, just 1 run and it`s `somewhat` on it`s own for now, but certainly not for the bin.

Edited by Stuie
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Im sorry but that is a pretty dissapointing ecm and at an early stage aswell!!!not really much snow early on either!!!

A bit of a wishbone northerly followed by a tame breakdown. Very unremarkable... if that is what transpires I'd rather have 20C and mild because that is poor.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

ECM - oh dear!

Mild air pushes into the south by day 7.

Edited by mulzy
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Take any detail beyond cold from 96h through to 144 with a huge dose of salt since the models differ greatly with position and orientation of high pressure to our NW with the interaction with strong polar heights and how fast it pulls away and weakens.

ECM looks far too progressive with its breakdown on the 9th an is an absolute worse case scenario so it will be interesting to see where it sits in its ensembles later.

It is also probably the least snowy before the breakdown although cold.

ECH1-168.GIF?02-0

Hopefully it is a bit of an outlier by the 9th and tomorrows run will look very different.

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on the coast Enthusiast

on the coast

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

A bit of a wishbone northerly followed by a tame breakdown. Very unremarkable... if that is what transpires I'd rather have 20C and mild because that is poor.

A new trend? Interesting to see tomorrow where this run sits.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

A bit of a wishbone northerly followed by a tame breakdown. Very unremarkable... if that is what transpires I'd rather have 20C and mild because that is poor.

Its just poor really poor!!!theres no 2 ways about it!!!it all unravels very early on between 96 and 120 hours as with my naked eye there aint enough amplification in the atlantic compared to gfs and ukmo which means the atlantic low joins the little shorrtwaves near iceland and everything goes too far west and lifts the iberian heights slightly toward us!!

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Take any detail beyond cold from 96h through to 144 with a huge dose of salt since the models differ greatly with position and orientation of high pressure to our NW with the interaction with strong polar heights and how fast it pulls away and weakens.

ECM looks far too progressive with its breakdown on the 9th an is an absolute worse case scenario so it will be interesting to see where it sits in its ensembles later.

It is also probably the least snowy before the breakdown although cold.

ECH1-168.GIF?02-0

Hopefully it is a bit of an outlier by the 9th and tomorrows run will look very different.

Yep agree, need to reign the days in. Monday/Tues max.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

This change in 2 days surely is wrong, I think it’s glitched and expect it’ll be a huge outlier - hope anyway 

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics

Could contain: Art, Outdoors, Graphics, Modern Art, Nature, Accessories

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

As Mucka says there's so much at play, Best to not get to hung up on each run with so much uncertainty from such a short timeframe. Wintry conditions on the way for now..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

ECM is the only one to break down the cold at day 7.

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This change in 2 days surely is wrong, I think it’s glitched and expect it’ll be a huge outlier - hope anyway 

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics

Could contain: Art, Outdoors, Graphics, Modern Art, Nature, Accessories

Let’s hope so Ali because it’s is a disaster wasn’t expecting that at all. It’s on its own the ECM so will probably we wrong 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

This morning's ensembles had the scatter where the 12z clearly was a possibility. We have had several cold ops rather than cluster switching, so a mild one was due (0z):

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart

The ens trend was that temps would rise and the 12z shows the faster route. No quick recovery to cold if the 12z is right, as heights to the north and NW fade quickly. 

We have to see where this lies, see if there is a trend in the ECM ensembles (correction to the downwelling), and tomorrow whether other models pick this signal up. Sadly, it is within the bounds of options and the ECM scenario would be a very disappointing view from the garden path.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Outdoors

Date records of a different variety are possible if this pattern locks in from here and a persistent SW wind sets in...

Reminds me of late Dec 2021 an awful lot when that white christmas rapidly vanished from the model output.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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