Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Mark wheeler]

Mogreps has a little more scatter this evening, especially further south as you can imagine. Still predominately cold though.

London and Birmingham for example .

just to add that some warm up slightly before dropping again .

Edited March 2, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[irish1]

ECM for Southeast Ireland certainly the mildest outcome.

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Why is it when one run goes rouge? People panic. Wait until we see the ensembles. 
One det run doesn't mean it's right. Remember this is just one option.

So far it's UKMO, GFS vs ECM. 

We await the ensembles.

I do agree with your statement but the wheels start falling off on the ECM between T96 and T120 (that’s very early on). I for one hope it’s had a complete meltdown and sorts it’s out by the 00z run or it’s gonna be so disappointing again .

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, irish1 said:

ECM for Southeast Ireland certainly the mildest outcome.

That’s good, I’ll ignore and hope the pub run is good 

[Rain All Night]

These could have been worse, for sure...

Edited March 2, 2023 by RainAllNight

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, irish1 said:

ECM for Southeast Ireland certainly the mildest outcome.

Good to see the ECM looks to have gone off on one, still plenty of colder runs in there.

Hopefully just a blip and not a trend, slightly more tense gfs 18z coming up

[Stuie]

9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Mogreps has a little more scatter this evening, especially further south as you can imagine. Still predominately cold though.

London and Birmingham for example .

just to add that some warm up slightly before dropping again .

Pretty short `blip`, actually a very short.

[dryfie]

9 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Isn't a Bartlett a persistent high pressure cell over Iberia/Europe/bay of Biscay during winter? Pressure rising in this area doesn't automatically make it a Bartlett unless I'm mistaken 

No!  50 years ago there was a LLAB (Low Latitude Anticyclonic Belt) which influenced a larger area, way out towards the Carib.  Since usurped.

[Bricriu]

20 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

ECM was king of the castle last night but tonight it is wrong? I would trust the ECM before GFS right now 

Yes, unfortunately given the GFS OP performance since its upgrade. Also when the ECM is showing a crud run for cold what's the betting it won't be an outlier. I just don't get this run though, if we are to see effects from the second warming, surely that high will want to go North West eventually? 

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, irish1 said:

ECM for Southeast Ireland certainly the mildest outcome.

Isn’t this the complete opposite of this morning, where the control and op were coldest and ENS were warm ? How does this happen  

 

The ECM is doing itself no favours lately - the last 2 runs for next Saturday

Edited March 2, 2023 by Ali1977

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM on a complete turn around at 168 hrs bringing in the Atlantic with a roar,back to a 3/4day cold spell will it or won’t it is the question.Uncertainty rules the roost at the moment.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Bricriu said:

Yes, unfortunately given the GFS OP performance since its upgrade. Also when the ECM is showing a crud run for cold what's the betting it won't be an outlier. I just don't get this run though, if we are to see effects from the second warming, surely that high will want to go North West eventually? 

Despite GFS performance. It's actually not been that bad at getting the pattern correct. It just seems to overblow lows/over exaggerate 850s 
But good thing here is, GFS isn't without support from other models. So nothing really to worry about.

Also ECM was at the top of it's ensembles. 

[Derecho]

21 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Why is it when one run goes rouge? People panic. 

Past experience

Edited March 2, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[RhHh]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Past experience

I'll fetch my revolver!

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Isn’t this the complete opposite of this morning, where the control and op were coldest and ENS were warm ? How does this happen  

 

The ECM is doing itself no favours lately - the last 2 runs for next Saturday

Last night was similar with regards to the op and control being bottom of the pack , this evening thats flipped , but still a cluster staying cold .

Edited March 2, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Tamara]

42 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Actually it was Tamara's post a few days back that did it I reckon!

From the point of view of those of you in NW Europe, I wouldn't worry. Next week still looks due for potential high impact weather events and snowfalls.

From my point of view though, it also looks better with a sub tropical jet stream returning to end to this anomalously very below average spell of weather which is no fun down here for flora and fauna. Quite a big jump in values to the high teens next week and very much warmer nights than the close to freezing nights of this week. Just taken at face value for what it is worth, tonight's ECM operational for my part of the world would be a thing of beauty

Edited March 2, 2023 by Tamara

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think the problem the models are having right now is the idea of milder Atlantic conditions pushing in from the SW..and models will always be keen on dislodging that cold and reverting back to type!

I would say do not panic right now,there's gonna be some...to me...to you scenarios in the coming days!

We could easily end up with the mother of all snowfalls before milder air tries to make inroads..also keep in mind the secondary warming last Weekend! Chaos is gonna rule before much longer.

But basically for now..KEEP CALM

You heard the lady @Tamara We are in the game..now go and have a cuppa

Edited March 2, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[bluearmy]

Not sure that there is much good news in the eps members …..coldies need to hope the suite is skewed towards the Iberian ridge and it won’t become a solid trend from now on. it’s not like it just popped out of nowhere though ……

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure that there is much good news in the eps members …..coldies need to hope the suite is skewed towards the Iberian ridge and it won’t become a solid trend from now on. it’s not like it just popped out of nowhere though ……

I did post the overwhelming evidence of snow becoming rarer and rarer in the UK  since 1973 recently so a last minute downgrade wouldn't suprise me in the slightest Nick.

Hopefully EC det is barking up the wrong tree..

[Penicuikblizzard]

19 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Yes, unfortunately given the GFS OP performance since its upgrade. Also when the ECM is showing a crud run for cold what's the betting it won't be an outlier. I just don't get this run though, if we are to see effects from the second warming, surely that high will want to go North West eventually? 

Most of the runs in recent days the high tended to move North West, all could change back again tomorrow morning 

[chris55]

58 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Perhaps it is a good thing to have such a relatively poor run dampen our enthusiasm. It is easy to get carried away seeing snowy chart after snowy chart while forgetting this is the UK we are talking about!

Let's take a breath, enjoy GFS pub run fun, and get ready to ramp tomorrow when ECM has taken the smelling salts. 

If by small chance it is right with such a rapid breakdown then let's hope the details change in between to better potential for more snow showers and a snowier more prolonged breakdown.

I could live with that.

It’s that balance of the cold air vs the mild push, i personally would like to see one of these battleground scenarios actually come off. To often this winter ( every time)  the Atlantic has pushed to far south and left us dry and cold. 
 

Hopefully EC is on the extreme side of the northerly extent of the Atlantic air. UKMO is a little too south. 
 

Usually these kind of charts settle in the middle….and I have a funny feeling this final ‘battleground’ of the season may actually deliver somewhere in the middle of the U.K.

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM is a mild outlier in latter stages..but the mean is showing a upward trend

Edited March 2, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[Stuie]

ECM with the outlier of the month (only the 2nd)

[stodge]

Evening all

24 hours and 16 pages on and to be blunt, I'm none the wiser.

ECM offers a rapid return to milder SW'lies after the briefest of cold incursions yet against that you have both GFS OP and JMA where the cold never really moves off.

To hold on to the cold, you need either an LP in the north Sea to keep the N'ly flow or the jet stream angled to push LP through the Channel. The key probably is to see a much more timid push of heights from the Canaries to Iberia - ECM pushes a serious HP into Iberia (I can see why @Tamara likes it given her location) and that's it for cold for NW Europe but a more muted response keeps the cold over northern Britain and makes the south a possible battleground (with all that might or might not result). 

The strength of the ridging from Greenland also helps to steer the LP onto a more E'ly rather than NE'ly track so there's lot to look at.

I have to say in far FI the GFS OP offers some very interesting synoptics for a "reload" with the PV over north west Siberia and the possibility of some Atlantic ridging - one to watch as the models continue to take into account the impact of the recent SSW and the sustained drop in zonal wind speeds which will again serve to promote amplification.

Will I be any wiser this time tomorrow evening? Possibly - I will be older though.

[Man With Beard]

In all honesty, the ECM mean at 12Z is quite similar to the 00Z, only slightly more progressive. So that's a fairly strong signal for milder air to break into the south sometime between Thursday at the earliest and Saturday at the latest. Further north, say north of Manchester, is far less clear.

Certainly a few chances of snow up till then though