Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

9/10th still at around 30 percent showing snow, let’s see where that goes later. 

Problem with the met and tv forecasts is that they are always at least 12hrs if not 18hrs behind. For example if you watched the meteogroup / bbc weather forecasts between now and tomorrow morning they will be using the ECM run from 6am this morning.   Watch how they change tomorrow,  especially tomorrow evening to being less bullish on snow 

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Problem with the met and tv forecasts is that they are always at least 12hrs if not 18hrs behind. For example if you watched the meteogroup / bbc weather forecasts between now and tomorrow morning they will be using the ECM run from 6am this morning.   Watch how they change tomorrow,  especially tomorrow evening to being less bullish on snow 

Do we know why this is? Especially in the case of the Met?

[mulzy]

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

FWIW, ECM day 10 is promising largely because those dreaded Iberian heights are diminished.

[Guest]

We've been waiting for that Greenie to arrive for 3 months

 And he buggers off after 2 day's ( Iv'e had longer baths!)

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

FWIW, ECM day 10 is promising largely because those dreaded Iberian heights are diminished.

And we constantly preach to one another, 'wait till its inside 144hrs'...what do we all do when we see somethig at 240 High vs Low resolution 

[Spah1]

Totally confused. Is this the system that’s meant to be moving through the South Thursday?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stuie]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO if it verifies which of course is a big if is more likely to disrupt energy eastwards day 6 into 7 .

 

Been thinking about your post Nick, the UKMO could be setting a trend and agree. If the LP`s do phase and stay West then could we possibly get an azores ridge, not over us but West of us?

[Rain All Night]

The big three ensembles for Reading:

ECMWF seems to want to bring in the mild juice slightly sooner than the others.

For the south at least, that mild sector on Monday actually seems like a bigger spoiler than the eventual breakdown - without it we would have had 4-5 days of continuous cold uppers.

Also, that Monday mild sector is the only part of this spell that wasn't flagged up well in advance by the longer range ensembles.

Edited March 4, 2023 by RainAllNight

[winterfreak]

54 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

There is no snow event(s) of note on the ECM. Absolutely gutted. What a waste of an opportunity this is turning out to be

Well this is Britain after all 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

The big three ensembles for Reading:

A 20 degree spread by the 10th on the ECM ensembles is quite something .

 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The big three ensembles for Reading:

ECM Op and control outliers, the main cluster similar to the GEFS and MOGREPS!! I Just don’t know what next week holds, nor do the models!! 
 

[Notty]

I’m going to be using this new forecasting tool from now on. Can’t be much worse than the rest

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Notty said:

I’m going to be using this new forecasting tool from now on. Can’t be much worse than the rest

WEll There's definitely a beast of some sort there.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I've noticed the frowngrades have begun! Exactly what did I say four days ago in the spring chat thread. If models are showing mild then it will be mild. 

[supernova]

If you ignore the GFS Op and Control runs from the last 24 hours and just look at the ensemble mean it makes for quite an interesting picture. The cooldown over coming days has been firmed up (even deepened) and in all instances there is then a slight warming followed by a longer term trend to cool down again although not to anything particularly cold. My heart therefore says we're still in with a chance of upgrades whereas my head says we've probably trended the wrong way compared to what "might have been".  Even so, the scatter is still pronounced so I'm going to embrace any wintry opportunities in the reliable (which will hopefully bring a bit of the white stuff for folks on here) before the next chapter is resolved. If it was easy it just wouldn't be as much fun right?....

 

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by supernova

[Man With Beard]

Well if the ultra progressive runs prove right, there's a lot of mild weather very close by - 17C in Norfolk will feel like a mini heatwave.

So we've had the full range of scenarios again today between the 00Zs and 12Zs. Such is the way with UK winter forecasting!

To get the snow in, one feels we need a better channel low Wednesday/Thursday to lock the cold in on the northern flank before the main low comes out way Friday/Saturday. If it fails, it would be the second time this winter.

[Stuie]

Here is your ECM outlier from the 12z.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Hi everyone been out whole day working...what's the latest on this cold spell the kind of blink and you will miss it..im not convinced we will see snow in the south later in the week..the risk seems to be diminishing as we speak..it appears Scotland will do ok!as it will be in the cold longest,the South is more of a cold couple days then swept away by the atlantic..is that a fair assessment on things currently?

Edited March 4, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[geordiekev]

56 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Cold air back in at day 9 with heights rising over Greenland.

 

Very plausible & another solution going forward. Those mentioning an Atlantic breakdown, I'm yet to see signs of any deep systems upstream & crossing America. Most of the systems are spawning from the trop vortex to our North, heading West initially by the Greeny block & then moving East, with forcing from both N/S elongating them.

Due to this bizarre set up FI is 3/4 days & when the Canada fed Greeny Block does subside there's still not many deep systems traversing America & tPV still largely displaced still. Wouldn't rule anything in or out

[Ali1977]

Well the EC Control and mean still bring the precip in on wed night - so still plenty to work out!! 

 

A snapshot of the ENS below - pick the bones out of that 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Ali1977

[Theresnoway]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Hi everyone been out whole day working...what's the latest on this cold spell the kind of blink and you will miss it..im not convinced we will see snow in the south later in the week..the risk seems to be diminishing as we speak..it appears Scotland will do ok!as it will be in the cold longest,the South is more of a cold couple days then swept away by the atlantic..is that a fair assessment on things currently?

If you take the operationals as gospel, then a very fair assessment. The models have definitely wobbled today, that is for sure. But given the difficulty forecasting the current setup, the varying model and ensemble outputs, I won’t be writing snow off in the south off just yet.

Let’s see what the models show in the next 48 hours, I think we’ll have a better idea then.

More concerned than yesterday? Yes! Throwing my toys out of the pram, not yet . 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Well the EC Control and mean still bring the precip in on wed night - so still plenty to work out!! 

rain though surely,or am I wrong?

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 12z ensemble mean

 

Pretty big outlier after 10th .......

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

rain though surely,or am I wrong?

Snow with many of them, a few of the better ones below 

 

Control is snow too, precip midlands north 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Ali1977

[mbrothers]

32 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I've noticed the frowngrades have begun! Exactly what did I say four days ago in the spring chat thread. If models are showing mild then it will be mild. 

Probably best u keep your frowngrades in the spring thwead.