Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[MattStoke]

Every model this afternoon has Stoke buried by midday Friday, so I think I’ll console myself to fact I’ll see nothing.

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Stuie said:

Faxchartgate lol, pencils at dawn. They are rolling out now.

The key ones are really T36 and T48 and T60hrs.

I might be adding 

#FaxChartEpicFail !!! 

Depending on what the forecaster decides to do .

Edited March 7, 2023 by nick sussex

[Lampostwatcher]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

oxfordshire area ok?looked it

Yep anywhere around the m4

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The key ones are really T48 and T60 and T72 hrs.

I might be adding 

#FaxChartEpicFail !!! 

Depending on what the forecaster decides to do .

Surely they don't go against all models, unless they have some super duper hi Res model we aren't aware of.

[sheikhy]

If ecm keep the same route this evening then i expect all the other models that take thursdays snow much further north to push it south instead and join the ecm by 00z!!

[Floatylight]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo at 72 hours looks even further south than gfs at 72 hours!!

Yes it is...again...

[throwoff]

Interesting how a few of the runs seem to want more rain in south than snow.

 

 

[Jacob Gamer]

Just now, sheikhy said:

If ecm keep the same route this evening then i expect all the other models that take thursdays snow much further north to push it south instead and join the ecm by 00z!!

I hope so… means more snow for the SE

Edited March 7, 2023 by Jacob Gamer

[nick sussex]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Surely they don't go against all models, unless they have some super duper hi Res model we aren't aware of.

They use Mogreps UK which we don’t have access to . We only get to see Mogreps global .

The decider this morning must have been the former otherwise I have no idea how the forecaster came up with those charts .

[tyson99]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

If ecm keep the same route this evening then i expect all the other models that take thursdays snow much further north to push it south instead and join the ecm by 00z!!

Our regions , Nottinghamshire , Derbyshire and Leicestershire look in a decent spot as it stands ?

[Tim Bland]

UKMO keeps the cold a fair way south right out to the weekend. Looking forward to seeing the precipitation charts later …

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, tyson99 said:

Our regions , Nottinghamshire , Derbyshire and Leicestershire look in a decent spot as it stands ?

Yes as it stands!!!gona be down to radar watchin after tonights ecm 12z!!!

[Buzz]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Convection off the north sea. In a northerly only the north of Scotland gets these shower lines. And organised frontal snow from a northerly is rare though we did see it in 2010. 

You're forgetting about the 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' that can hit west Wales in a suitable Northerly.

 

[sunnijim]

A brief opinion ( as flu and a temp of 39c, tapping the screen hurts my finger!) on what seems to be very late corrections South of Low Pressure systems and cold air now and in the future.

Surprise surprise, the high to the northwest is proving stronger after all and putting more pressure on the Lows 

 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKMO keeps the cold a fair way south right out to the weekend. Looking forward to seeing the precipitation charts later …

This is a major upgrade, this is starting to look like a very memorable event now or even a very memorable / historic type week - and I don’t think that’s over egging it. 
When I say historic I mean one that will be talked about or referenced too in years to come - not as in best snow event ever !! 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Ali1977

[andy_leics22]

Looking good for Central Southern England tomorrow! The 12z has moved the band slightly further North. I can see Oxfordshire and Berkshire getting a pasting. 10cm+ wouldn't surprise me in the slightest for those areas.

 

Hoping for selfish reasons that it moves another 30 miles North before tomorrow to put Leicester in a better position, but i'll take a couple of cm's at this stage

Edited March 7, 2023 by andy_leics22

[BLS]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKMO keeps the cold a fair way south right out to the weekend. Looking forward to seeing the precipitation charts later …

If this keeps up falling south like it has been and is correct (very small chance at the moment) even the south and SE could see something later in the week and weekend! Would need another major change like this though

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This is a major upgrade, this is starting to look like a very memorable event now or even a very memorable / historic type week - and I don’t think that’s over egging it. 

I think the only thing stopping it from being a historic event is the constant transition from rain to snow washing away falls before repeating. GEM also has a lot of snow tomorrow through to a Thursday, it then turns to rain for most and then it’s back to snow Saturday then rain again Sunday. Unlike decembers spell the snow that does accumulate will thaw rapidly in between falls.  

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I think the only thing stopping it from being a historic event is the constant transition from rain to snow washing away falls before repeating. GEM also has a lot of snow tomorrow through to a Thursday, it then turns to rain for most and then it’s back to snow Saturday then rain again Sunday. Unlike decembers spell the snow that does accumulate will thaw rapidly in between falls.  

Fair point

[phil nw.]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Im absolutely astonished!!!!i thought ecm was as far south as we are gona go but ukmo goes one further!!as it stands anyone into central midlands into yorkshire should be ready for some disruption!!but wouldnt surprise me if it ends up further south!!

Thing is for global models a shift of say a 100 miles is miniscule worldwide but for our small location is big.

The adjustment north and south of the battleground will continue I am sure. 

It looks like we will see number of wriggling fronts heading in during the coming days indicating the sharpness of the boundary layers.This will continue to test even the short range models.

Snowfall will show up for many at some point by the looks but doubts continue of it laying the further south we go where freezing levels are marginal away from elevation.

We could have done with the Arctic trough just a little sharper and further south before the Atlantic approach.

[Tim Bland]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

if this ends up spectacular, you have to give BLAST full credit, hes called it months out.

Time will tell is suppose. If we get 1 or 2 days of snow he will be way off. Today is day 1 of what has been predicted as a 14 days of cold and snow. Away from the far north and high ground of the north it looks a few days still and in the south may still only see 2 days of snow followed by rain and a thaw , followed by some sleet then back to normal ….

[EML Network]

Regarding the overnight/tomorrows 'event' we should be able to get an idea of how far North the PPN might go by seeing if it clips the tip of Southern Ireland or not as it starts to encroach around abiut the time the 18z GFS rolls out.

As the projected northward extent never really gets much further North than that

2nd image show this well for midday tomorrow.

 

 

[sheikhy]

Anyone got ukmo precipitation charts?!!

[Battleground Snow]

Going back to the future for a minute, that's a very cold chart next week.

Cheltenham goers will be getting nervous if that comes off.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[andy_leics22]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone got ukmo precipitation charts?!!

Yes mate, they are only up until T27 at rhe moment though. Slowly rolling out the new 12z run.