Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Row w said:

I'm not one for having a moan but what the heck is all this downgrading business, it was forecast to be sunny this week even if slightly cooler than anticipated due to an easterly but now all the BBC have on their app is rain and depressing temperatures. I can deal with it being slightly cooler even though anything above 15c would be nice but its the endless amount of rain. I wish it would do one and let spring begin, I'm desperate to have the first BBQ of the season.

It's sunny here, I never pay attention to apps.

[weatherguru14]

The Met office have been saying for 4/5 days.

Friday 21 Apr - Sunday 30 Apr

Most places staying settled and dry with sunny spells, the best of these to the north and west. Becoming cloudier through Friday and into the weekend, with a chance of showers, most likely towards the southeast although detail is uncertain. Most areas feeling reasonable in shelter and sunshine, though eastern coasts are likely to feel cooler in fresh easterly winds. High pressure is likely to remain centred to the north or northeast of the UK through late-April, leading to a fair amount of fine and dry weather persisting, although the chance of showers, mainly in the south, remains. Temperatures likely rather warm to warm towards the end of the month, especially in the west and northwest. Some eastern coasts may stay cooler, and perhaps locally chilly overnight in sheltered parts.

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"Rather warm to warm".. I wonder how long before they change forecast again? another week? 

[snowray]

1 minute ago, weatherguru14 said:

The Met office have been saying for 4/5 days.

Friday 21 Apr - Sunday 30 Apr

Most places staying settled and dry with sunny spells, the best of these to the north and west. Becoming cloudier through Friday and into the weekend, with a chance of showers, most likely towards the southeast although detail is uncertain. Most areas feeling reasonable in shelter and sunshine, though eastern coasts are likely to feel cooler in fresh easterly winds. High pressure is likely to remain centred to the north or northeast of the UK through late-April, leading to a fair amount of fine and dry weather persisting, although the chance of showers, mainly in the south, remains. Temperatures likely rather warm to warm towards the end of the month, especially in the west and northwest. Some eastern coasts may stay cooler, and perhaps locally chilly overnight in sheltered parts.

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"Rather warm to warm".. I wonder how long before they change forecast again? another week? 

I noticed that, strange that this has not been updated.

[Stabilo19]

The GFS just keeps getting colder and colder. What the hell is going on with spring 2023 . I hope this is not foreshadowing a cold and wet summer.. 

[Downburst]

well I got up to 19 C here yesterday with Mount Dillion in the center of Ireland at 21.4. Was a nice day, humid but over cast in the morning, them sun breaking out and real sunny. Was weird as I was in two minds about sitting down or back out to the garden and the weather made the call when the sun came out. Overcast again this morning but should clear to a dry week and reasonable temps.

[danm]

6 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

The GFS just keeps getting colder and colder. What the hell is going on with spring 2023 . I hope this is not foreshadowing a cold and wet summer.. 

I keep saying it, but having a late season SSW throws the atmosphere into disarray. Sure, it gave a few people a couple of days of snow in March, but it also makes high latitude blocking and easterly winds more likely for several weeks afterwards, as happened in 2018. That year the mini BFTE was followed by a horrible cool and wet spell right through into early April. 

[MP-R]

While it goes against the grain a bit, cold spells in late April and early May haven't been rare in recent years:

   

What followed these spells differed. 2019 went unsettled and cold before turning more settled. 2017 stayed cool initially but generally dry. 2016 saw the start of a rapid warmup. 2015 turned wet and windy (not a May I want to see repeated).

   

[Downburst]

Ah yes, a wet and windy May, fills the barn with corn and hay. You'd be surprised the number of times I console myself with that in atrocious conditions in May. The expectation of course coming out of the winter is that it's all Darling buds of May, but not in reality. We just have to take the weather as it is. Last year there were folks all agreeing on here that southern England had a Mediterranean climate, so you can see the expectations people have and how hard it is to see the reality.

[h2005__uk__]

As of Wednesday last week, mid-Essex was predicted to get to 18-20C all this week and it looked really good. Then it got downgraded a bit, but the BBC local forecasters just a few days ago were still saying 18-20C by the end of the week. 

Now what's being forecast is 12-15C all week. 

This has to be the worst Winter/Spring I can remember here for many years in terms of pleasant weather... very cold December (just as energy prices hit record highs), pretty cool January, a dull, wet and cool March, then a cool and fairly wet April.

The snow in December was nice to an extent but it outstayed its welcome for me.

[Bristawl Si]

What happened to the settled, warm weather?

Currently, 11c, grey, gloomy, light rain.

[danm]

Well with all the gloom of a much cooler spell potentially coming, today looks great. After some very early morning light rain (about 4-6am) it is now sunny with not a cloud in the sky. Expecting a high of 17c which should feel nice. 
 

Edited April 17, 2023 by danm

[Downburst]

With easterlies at this time of the year you need to watch the satellite loops more than the rain radar and look for gaps in the cloud more than anything, under a gap all is well. 

[SunSean]

Imagine the weather gods piled on the misery and we got another-

May 2021

June 2012

July 2009

August 2010

September 2022

October 2020

All in a row!

[Downburst]

11 minutes ago, danm said:

Well with all the gloom of a much cooler spell potentially coming, today looks great. After some very early morning light rain (about 4-6am) it is now sunny with not a cloud in the sky. Expecting a high of 17c which should feel nice. 
 

Looks great. Fingers crossed that bank to your east doesn't make it over https://www.meteoradar.co.uk/satellite-rainradar#

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Frigid said:

April 2020 - Warm and sunny

April 2021 -  Cold and sunny

April 2022 -  Average

April 2023 - Cold and cloudy

We've had it all in the last few years..

2023 definitely is the worst for some time. 2020 was the best, despite the lockdown and everything surrounding covid. 

9 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Imagine the weather gods piled on the misery and we got another-

May 2021

June 2012

July 2009

August 2010

September 2022

October 2020

All in a row!

Please no!

If May turns out to be cold and cloudy, I will consider moving to another country.

[Andrew Hurcomb]

Forecast for today here, cloudy and 14 degrees. Its grey cloudy and raining again and 12 degrees.

The warm weather they predicted last week looks like a dream long ago. Booked to go cycling178 miles from yesterday to tomorrow as they forecast it being nice. Not really keen in cycling and camping that distance in 12 degrees and rain.

 

Has not got over 16 degrees here this April and judging by the forecast I cannot see it attaining  that or above.

Looked at the local weather station for last 20 years. 5 of those years never made it to 18 degrees, last one being 2016. Guess we have short memories. Roll on May!

[Mapantz]

Got lucky here, for a change. Sun's out!

16..2°C

[CryoraptorA303]

Of course, we have the obligatory "why isn't it 25c every day yet, I thought April was a warm month" posts as always. Actually, the temperature has been very average for the most part with only a few slightly-below average days. I implore you to look up what your average April temperature actually is; I guarantee it will be lower than your expectations. The temperature isn't really the unusual part about this spring so far.

The rain here has been a lot more sporadic than in March; one day it'll be pouring down, next day it's crystal clear and warm again, as opposed to March where it was drizzly but it was like that almost all the time. It would appear to be reflecting much less stable atmospheric conditions due to SSW some weeks ago.

The best way to describe this spring is that it's a lot more like a normal autumn: Wet, overcast and free of major temperature swings; unlike what some will claim here, temperatures have hovered around average for an unusually long time, which is what you would expect from overcast conditions, the likes of which are a lot more common in autumn.

I suspect that we will see a rapid warmup later on in May; this year doesn't seem to be one for moderation. We will probably go straight from overcast and unremarkable temperatures to harsh sun, bone dry and hot. Don't expect any moderate periods this year, we're going to swing from one extreme to the other.

Regarding the forecast changing from warm and sunny to more rain and low-teens activity, as it turns out, weather is unpredictable. If you think that weather forecasts for more than a few days in advance should remain static, I can't really help you.

[CryoraptorA303]

22 minutes ago, Andrew Hurcomb said:

Forecast for today here, cloudy and 14 degrees. Its grey cloudy and raining again and 12 degrees.

The warm weather they predicted last week looks like a dream long ago. Booked to go cycling178 miles from yesterday to tomorrow as they forecast it being nice. Not really keen in cycling and camping that distance in 12 degrees and rain.

 

Has not got over 16 degrees here this April and judging by the forecast I cannot see it attaining  that or above.

Looked at the local weather station for last 20 years. 5 of those years never made it to 18 degrees, last one being 2016. Guess we have short memories. Roll on May!

Indeed we do. We get a few hot Aprils (2007, 2011, and 2020; you can probably add 2018 and 2019 to that list too if you don't count the schizophrenic behaviour) and then expect every April to be like that.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Bristle Si said:

What happened to the settled, warm weather?

Currently, 11c, grey, gloomy, light rain.

It's at least sunny, over here, Si, but still only 11C. Your time will come! 

[Snowy L]

35 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Of course, we have the obligatory "why isn't it 25c every day yet, I thought April was a warm month" posts as always. Actually, the temperature has been very average for the most part with only a few slightly-below average days. I implore you to look up what your average April temperature actually is; I guarantee it will be lower than your expectations. The temperature isn't really the unusual part about this spring so far.

The rain here has been a lot more sporadic than in March; one day it'll be pouring down, next day it's crystal clear and warm again, as opposed to March where it was drizzly but it was like that almost all the time. It would appear to be reflecting much less stable atmospheric conditions due to SSW some weeks ago.

The best way to describe this spring is that it's a lot more like a normal autumn: Wet, overcast and free of major temperature swings; unlike what some will claim here, temperatures have hovered around average for an unusually long time, which is what you would expect from overcast conditions, the likes of which are a lot more common in autumn.

I suspect that we will see a rapid warmup later on in May; this year doesn't seem to be one for moderation. We will probably go straight from overcast and unremarkable temperatures to harsh sun, bone dry and hot. Don't expect any moderate periods this year, we're going to swing from one extreme to the other.

Regarding the forecast changing from warm and sunny to more rain and low-teens activity, as it turns out, weather is unpredictable. If you think that weather forecasts for more than a few days in advance should remain static, I can't really help you.

The UK doesn't have much of a wet-dry season thing going on, but Spring should be the drier of the seasons. Lack of warmth is one thing, it's when it coincides with endless cloud, drizzle and rain when the (justified) complaints start. People have a right to be annoyed by the first 50 or so days of Spring not being warm AND being dull.

Also just to add for me personally the 1961-1990 is not relevant as I didn't live through it. The average I've partly lived through is 1981-2010, and compared to that average, this Spring has been below average.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Snowy L

[h2005__uk__]

23 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Of course, we have the obligatory "why isn't it 25c every day yet, I thought April was a warm month" posts as always. Actually, the temperature has been very average for the most part with only a few slightly-below average days. I implore you to look up what your average April temperature actually is; I guarantee it will be lower than your expectations. The temperature isn't really the unusual part about this spring so far.

 

Average max. for where I am throughout April is 14.3C. So far it's been 12.7C and looks like maxes will be 11-15C in the next two weeks, so it'll likely finish around 1.5C below average.

No-one expects 25C in April every day, but often at this point in Spring we've at least had a few days of 18C+ weather - that's not happened yet. Also the models have at least twice forecasted such weather which ends up being watered down. This, coupled with the wet March and cold winter, makes this April seem worse.

[danm]

I think the current disappointment is a cold and wet March combined with a significant downgrading of the warmth this week for most, plus a pretty poor outlook for the next 10 days. 

[TwisterGirl81]

Try living here in Devon, we didn't even see any snow here as we were just slightly not cold enough, I never hope for proper snow here as I know it's pretty rare....I do however hope for decent warm weather which is doable, especially after several months of cool/cold/damp conditions with a little dash of sun here and there....I can only say from where I live but it has been colder than average most of winter/spring (bad luck during a time when we are all being shafted by all in sundry financially speaking) We can only hope we will be thoroughly compensated in a change of fortunes for the rest of spring and summer (and cheaper energy bills followed by a very mild winter, here's hoping :P) ...Please god!!!

[Frigid]

19C at Altnaharra, out of all places in the UK.. could reach 20C after all