Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Was it 1975 in the first week of June snow stopped play at cricket match in Derbyshire ? About a week later it was warm and sunny and pretty much the rest of that summer was great!  We can but hope.

[B87]

2 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Was it 1975 in the first week of June snow stopped play at cricket match in Derbyshire ? About a week later it was warm and sunny and pretty much the rest of that summer was great!  We can but hope.

Just looked at early June 1975 for Heathrow. An exceptionally cold first 5 days of the month, but eventually warmed up from 6th.

 

[mountain shadow]

It was meant to be wall to wall sunshine here today. Currently overcast and cool. 

[Sun Chaser]

After this weekend coming and recent improvements in the models I could totally see May finishing above average maximum wise, with at least average sunshine and not much rainfall to come. May 2017 vibes?

[al78]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

So when people say it's "spoilt" to get days of 21, 22c, 23c etc in May, and that we should "expect" weather like this, they're incorrect. 

Unless they are trying to project the Shetland islands onto southern England.

[richie3846]

7 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

After this weekend coming and recent improvements in the models I could totally see May finishing above average maximum wise, with at least average sunshine and not much rainfall to come. May 2017 vibes?

I'd be surprised if we end up with below average maxima at this point - many areas have already baked in temperatures which are around or slightly above average for early May. It's a shame the CET data now compares for the whole month I think? I used to get a feel for the month so far with that, and also 'the month so far in the British Isles', which uses the whole month data.

Looking at the latter, south east is break even against the latest 30 year mean (suggesting even here it's above average, as May is a warming month). Many places are around 0.5 to 1c above the whole month average, suggesting that the opening 10 days have been very solid temperature wise.

[al78]

10 hours ago, Alderc said:

Wimps, hopefully summer will sort itself out and give plenty of that. 

Come and help me cultivate my allotment with its heavy clay soil in 30+C heat for two hours straight and then try calling me a wimp.

[al78]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

That's pretty much all we have to go on at the moment. June is safely a write off (I consider it poor with below average sun and a max below 21c).

How can you write off a month that doesn't even start until nearly three weeks time and the forecast skill at that lead is negligable?

The Met Office contingency planner suggests that the tercile probabilities for rainfall over the next three months are close to climatology, maybe a slight bias towards wetter than average but no strong signal for either a very wet or very dry summer. The only hint of a possible washout summer is from a site I recently came across which looked at UK summers during moderate and strong El Nino years, and concluded there was a large bias towards wet summers. Unfortunately it is odds on for a moderate or strong El Nino to develop and persist through this summer.

https://bruener45.wixsite.com/britishislesclimate/post/el-niño-and-its-impacts-on-the-british-isles-in-summer

IRI ENSO multi-model ensemble

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by al78

[danm]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yeah I wouldn't suggest we hold our breaths for that one... 

I can't see this summer being anything other than predominantly 'wet and cloudy' with the odd burst of warmth (30c or so for 2/3 days). Very much a 2021 vibe. 

We've reached 20c just once this whole year and it's nearly the middle of May. If anything suggests to the trend for this year (not warmth), it's that.

What makes you say that? A poor Spring does not mean a poor Summer...

[A Face like Thunder]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

Just looked at early June 1975 for Heathrow. An exceptionally cold first 5 days of the month, but eventually warmed up from 6th.

 

2nd June 1975. Snow stopped play at Buxton in a County cricket match and I witnessed sleet at Euston in London middle day.

[Sun Chaser]

31 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I'd be surprised if we end up with below average maxima at this point - many areas have already baked in temperatures which are around or slightly above average for early May. It's a shame the CET data now compares for the whole month I think? I used to get a feel for the month so far with that, and also 'the month so far in the British Isles', which uses the whole month data.

Looking at the latter, south east is break even against the latest 30 year mean (suggesting even here it's above average, as May is a warming month). Many places are around 0.5 to 1c above the whole month average, suggesting that the opening 10 days have been very solid temperature wise.

I think "baked" is an exaggeration but, we are sitting at about 0.5c above average I'd say. It's been wet and pretty dull so far but enough good days to keep me going. And with the forecast looking mainly settled and fairly warm there is reason to be optimistic about the rest of the month! Would love a proper heatwave now.

[richie3846]

Just now, plymsunshine said:

I think "baked" is an exaggeration but, we are sitting at about 0.5c above average I'd say. It's been wet and pretty dull so far but enough good days to keep me going. And with the forecast looking mainly settled and fairly warm there is reason to be optimistic about the rest of the month! Would love a proper heatwave now.

'Baked', tongue in cheek for sure! I'd love a proper heatwave too.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

1983 only reached 20c on the last day of May, and July was very hot.

Spring 2013 was shocking, hot July.

That's pretty much all we have to go on at the moment. June is safely a write off (I consider it poor with below average sun and a max below 21c).

Just looking back, 2021 must have been the dullest year on record? Other than the sunny April and average November, every month was notably duller than normal!

Yes the concern now turns to June, this pattern looks horribly locked in. June 1983 & 2013 was poor, if it’s the case then hopefully we’ll compensated by a good July. Thankfully I’m away for ten days june, at least the weather can’t ruin that one down Egypt like it looks like ruining next weeks trip to Spain. 

[richie3846]

Just now, richie3846 said:

'Baked', tongue in cheek for sure! I'd love a proper heatwave too.

What I'd like to know is where we compare for the opening third in isolation. This is the data on temperatures that is more difficult to assess I guess.

[B87]

33 minutes ago, al78 said:

How can you write off a month that doesn't even start until nearly three weeks time and the forecast skill at that lead is negligable?

The Met Office contingency planner suggests that the tercile probabilities for rainfall over the next three months are close to climatology, maybe a slight bias towards wetter than average but no strong signal for either a very wet or very dry summer. The only hint of a possible washout summer is from a site I recently came across which looked at UK summers during moderate and strong El Nino years, and concluded there was a large bias towards wet summers. Unfortunately it is odds on for a moderate or strong El Nino to develop and persist through this summer.

https://bruener45.wixsite.com/britishislesclimate/post/el-niño-and-its-impacts-on-the-british-isles-in-summer

IRI ENSO multi-model ensemble

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

 

Zero chance of anything even remotely above average after this weekend. Just can't see this pattern moving at all, and a June with an average high of 20c and 170-180 hours of sun is poor (happened in both 1983 and 2013). 

We should really be seening some sustained sunny weeks with temps of 20-25c by now. I doubt we will see anything warmer than this coming weekend for the rest of May, and that will probably continue into June as well. 

What has happened to average or above average temperatures?

[RebsAbbo]

What a difference a day makes! I am fed up with the inconsistency of this May. Yesterday was warm sunshine all day (admittedly lucky to avoid any of the local rain showers), and wearing factor 50 (still got caught). Today is low cloud & a nasty northerly, wearing body warmer, winter headband & gloves! I happily accept this weather in April, but not mid-May. Don’t need heat but just some consistent mild weather would be appreciated. 

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

It was meant to be wall to wall sunshine here today. Currently overcast and cool. 

I'm just down the road in Louth. Sunny all morning. https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/satellites/ireland-infrared-radar any low cloud/mist should be gone shortly. Mournes do a great job for us here with NE air, although starve us of any snow too. Rain expected Sunday evening a couple of days back now to pass through by 1 pm Sunday and light at that, then dry all next week. I am happy with the weather at the moment, even if not warm, it is still bright and sunny

[TwisterGirl81]

It's sunny in Exeter, it's not warm though, kinda cool, tomorrow looks like wall to wall sunshine and might even get our first 20c (maybe 21c) of spring too...better late than never I suppose.....Going to completely relish it as luckily managed to do most of the gardening and painting fences in the few odd nice days so far this spring so looking forward to chilling! I hope everyone else see's sun too  

Edited May 12, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[NEVES SCREAMER]

5 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

It's sunny in Exeter, it's not warm though, kinda cool, tomorrow looks like wall to wall sunshine and might even get our first 20c of spring too...better late than never I suppose.....Going to completely relish it as luckily managed to do most of the gardening and painting fences in the few odd nice days so far this spring so looking forward to chilling! I hope everyone else see's sun too  

Yes. Despite the Met Office and BBC app showing uniform cloud for today I am looking out of my office window currently at broken cloud and sunny spells. Certainly no heatwave but compared to recent dross an improvement! 

[danm]

All that rain from the east is piling in, will be over all of EA and the SE soon and then into the Midlands, C Southern England & parts of E England.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

I'd be surprised if we end up with below average maxima at this point - many areas have already baked in temperatures which are around or slightly above average for early May. It's a shame the CET data now compares for the whole month I think? I used to get a feel for the month so far with that, and also 'the month so far in the British Isles', which uses the whole month data.

Looking at the latter, south east is break even against the latest 30 year mean (suggesting even here it's above average, as May is a warming month). Many places are around 0.5 to 1c above the whole month average, suggesting that the opening 10 days have been very solid temperature wise.

17/18c is not 'baking' in May, and that's what we're getting on good days. There has been no 'baking'. There has been cloud, dross, wet, cool, and the odd sunny spell that makes you think "oh, so that's how warm its actually meant to be right now".

It's bang-on average max at best, and in the latter half of the month, its below average max. May on averages in my part of the country sees around 10 days at 20c or above. This year we've achieved just 1 day of 20c so far (including for April, so 1 day so far this whole year). 

Honestly not sure if this is a troll post considering the last 5 Mays (even in May 2021) have all seen days above 25c in May, which we won't see anywhere close to this year (and unless the pattern changes significantly, we likely won't see in June either). And nobody would call those Mays " baking" - just a regular May with a few hot days as per normal. Look at Sub-Arctic Canada - days on end of upper 20s and 30c right now. If we are 'baking', what does that make them? 

[TwisterGirl81]

21 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Yes. Despite the Met Office and BBC app showing uniform cloud for today I am looking out of my office window currently at broken cloud and sunny spells. Certainly no heatwave but compared to recent dross an improvement! 

Really feel for the southeast though, this spring hasn't been kind to the south, being more southwest it can still be more changeable here but the south east have really copped  it this spring to their usual weather.

4 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

17/18c is not 'baking' in May, and that's what we're getting on good days. There has been no 'baking'. There has been cloud, dross, wet, cool, and the odd sunny spell that makes you think "oh, so that's how warm its actually meant to be right now".

It's bang-on average max at best, and in the latter half of the month, its below average max. May on averages in my part of the country sees around 10 days at 20c or above. This year we've achieved just 1 day of 20c so far (including for April, so 1 day so far this whole year). 

Honestly not sure if this is a troll post considering the last 5 Mays (even in May 2021) have all seen days above 25c in May, which we won't see anywhere close to this year (and unless the pattern changes significantly, we likely won't see in June either). And nobody would call those Mays " baking" - just a regular May with a few hot days as per normal. Look at Sub-Arctic Canada - days on end of upper 20s and 30c right now. If we are 'baking', what does that make them? 

Totally agree, the best days we've had averages, lots of below average temps, sunshine and above rainfall for the south , does anyone know when the met office release the anomaly charts for spring?  Always get confused when spring officially ends    Hopefully we'll get a proper warm up in the couple weeks

Edited May 12, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[B87]

2 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Really feel for the southeast though, this spring hasn't been kind to the south, being more southwest it can still be more changeable here but the south east have really copped  it this spring to their usual weather.

Totally agree, the best days we've had averages   Hopefully we'll get a proper warm up in the couple weeks

And hopefully the eventual warm-up isn't just a couple of days that are slightly above average. We need at least a good 1-2 weeks spell with zero rainfall and temps around 25c or more.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

42 minutes ago, B87 said:

Zero chance of anything even remotely above average after this weekend. Just can't see this pattern moving at all, and a June with an average high of 20c and 170-180 hours of sun is poor (happened in both 1983 and 2013). 

We should really be seening some sustained sunny weeks with temps of 20-25c by now. I doubt we will see anything warmer than this coming weekend for the rest of May, and that will probably continue into June as well. 

What has happened to average or above average temperatures?

Back in April people were saying "Oh you can't write-off the rest of the month yet, and definitely can't talk about May!" but lo an behold, as we predicted, the pattern of cool/wet/cloudy April has continued well into May, and looks here to stay.

Now its well into May and nothing has changed really, people are now going "You can't write-off June!"... Lol. When can we safely say that this is very clearly a locked-in pattern of weather? Yes, we may get the odd warmer day here and there but the trend this year is that we simply cannot seem to get anything consistent or settled. It'll be dross for days, then a break with 1 day or 2 days max of somewhat sunny and a tad above average temps, and then back to dross again. 

At best, certain regions will get a nice day or 2, but it'll be localised, and the rest of the country still wallows in dross. Today the perfect example - pleasant in the western part of the country, awful in the east. 12c and raining in London. This is late November/ early December weather with more light and leaves on the trees. That's it. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

5 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Really feel for the southeast though, this spring hasn't been kind to the south, being more southwest it can still be more changeable here but the south east have really copped  it this spring to their usual weather

Some parts have had nearly double the average rainfall and less than 75% of average sunshine hours. Trouble with the SE these days is we seem to get locked-in to patterns that refuse to shift. It happened in 2021 as well. It works in our favour in years like 2018 or 2022 when the pattern is sunny and warm, but not when its the opposite. Its just feast or famine.

25 minutes ago, danm said:

All that rain from the east is piling in, will be over all of EA and the SE soon and then into the Midlands, C Southern England & parts of E England.

Yep, its arrived for me. Hello November, i missed you, it's been a whole 48-hours since we last met!

Heating has come back on. 

Meanwhile the rest of Europe right now:

• Stockholm 20c and sunny
• Oslo 18c and mostly sunny
• Riga: 19c and sunny
• Amsterdam: 18c and sunny
• Copenhagen: 19c and sunny
• Helsinki: 19c and sunny
• Berlin: 22c and sunny
• Warsaw: 20c and sunny
• Moscow: 21c mostly sunny

The list goes on. Only Paris is matching us tit-for-tit at 13c and rainy...whatever dross is looming over this godforsaken island but nowhere else, has evidently scooped-up Northern France in it's wake too lol. However, the entirety of the rest of Northern Europe and Scandinavia is basking in wonderful spring conditions. 

Starting to think God/powers that be just don't like the monarchy...

Beyond depressing by this point. The one day i work from home in weeks as well, and not a scrap of sun/warmth to sit outside and enjoy. Load of tosh.