Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[ANYWEATHER]

46 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Agree with others thoughts - troughing slowly getting closer in a weeks time, but how far will it make it? Everything has been so slow in the last month, it wouldn’t really surprise anyone if it stalls again. A very good week of summer weather for many before this though, flaming June rather than June monsoon this year it would seem…

It's interesting EC had none of it a few days ago and now it's picked up the signal...!

[Captain Shortwave]

Regarding any plume in early week 2, I don’t see it being particularly potent in terms of heat (probably reaching the levels we are seeing right now). However the reintroduction of storms would offer a break from potentially several days of dry and sunny weather.

However I suspect charts like this will start cropping up more often over the coming days…

 

The more robust Euro high and weak Atlantic trough and yes the embedded more extreme temperatures are now there over south west Europe.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Regarding any plume in early week 2, I don’t see it being particularly potent in terms of heat (probably reaching the levels we are seeing right now). However the reintroduction of storms would offer a break from potentially several days of dry and sunny weather.

However I suspect charts like this will start cropping up more often over the coming days…

 

The more robust Euro high and weak Atlantic trough and yes the embedded more extreme temperatures are now there over south west Europe.

It’s pretty potent on this run.

[Sun Chaser]

Obviously a huge outlier but surely 35c is possible in this setup? 15c isotherm well into the midlands

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, plymsunshine said:

Obviously a huge outlier but surely 35c is possible in this setup? 15c isotherm well into the midlands

 

Plenty of plume scenarios in the individual Ensembles. 

[mushymanrob]

Todays max temps seem to have stalled at 31c at Lakenheath.... we need 31.2c to get the daily record... (currently 31.1c)

[damianslaw]

My expectation for the summer to be an increasingly unsettled yet persistantly warm one gels with today's ECM outlook - though unusually I think it may be a bit over progressive whilst picking up the base summer state that often manifests by the time of the solstice.

In this case, heights nudging further north and east in time with the atlantic/ euro trough from the SW gainer continuously the upper hand.

This scenario allows for plume events albeit temporary but very potent with thundery breakdowns and in time some proper atlantic influence before repeat performance. The end of each cycle bringing very warm/hot brief settled weather.

With this in mind, the coming week could well be the best it gets this summer for lengthy settled conditions. 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by damianslaw

[SunSean]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

My expectation for the summer to be an increasingly unsettled yet persistantly warm one gels with today's ECM outlook - though unusually I think it may be a bit over progressive whilst picking up the base summer state that often manifests by the time of the solstice.

In this case, heights nudging further north and east in time with the atlantic/ euro trough from the SW gainer continuously the upper hand.

This scenario allows for plume events albeit temporary but very potent with thundery breakdowns and in time some proper atlantic influence before repeat performance. The end of each cycle bringing very warm/hot brief settled weather.

With this in mind, the coming week could well be the best it gets this summer for lengthy settled conditions. 

 

Hopefully your prediction is as accurate as a drunk blind guy at a game of darts

I do remember many people last year saying summer 2022 was going to be nothing special and they were proved wrong so hopefully same again!

[Gordon Webb]

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

My expectation for the summer to be an increasingly unsettled yet persistantly warm one gels with today's ECM outlook - though unusually I think it may be a bit over progressive whilst picking up the base summer state that often manifests by the time of the solstice.

In this case, heights nudging further north and east in time with the atlantic/ euro trough from the SW gainer continuously the upper hand.

This scenario allows for plume events albeit temporary but very potent with thundery breakdowns and in time some proper atlantic influence before repeat performance. The end of each cycle bringing very warm/hot brief settled weather.

With this in mind, the coming week could well be the best it gets this summer for lengthy settled conditions. 

 

if there was a popular post the day award in this thread I suspect this would not win it

[DR(S)NO]

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

My expectation for the summer to be an increasingly unsettled yet persistantly warm one gels with today's ECM outlook - though unusually I think it may be a bit over progressive whilst picking up the base summer state that often manifests by the time of the solstice.

In this case, heights nudging further north and east in time with the atlantic/ euro trough from the SW gainer continuously the upper hand.

This scenario allows for plume events albeit temporary but very potent with thundery breakdowns and in time some proper atlantic influence before repeat performance. The end of each cycle bringing very warm/hot brief settled weather.

With this in mind, the coming week could well be the best it gets this summer for lengthy settled conditions. 

 

North and west best for the most settled weather this Summer?

Thundery and plumey further south?

[Bats32]

Just now, DR(S)NO said:

North and west best for the most settled weather this Summer?

Thundery and plumey further south?

North and East as the high is pushed in that direction.

[DR(S)NO]

3 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

North and East as the high is pushed in that direction.

My exact feeling is the majority of Scotland is in for extended warm, dry and settled weather.

Probably less impact from those plume/short breakdown events

[MattStoke]

53 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

My expectation for the summer to be an increasingly unsettled yet persistantly warm one gels with today's ECM outlook - though unusually I think it may be a bit over progressive whilst picking up the base summer state that often manifests by the time of the solstice.

In this case, heights nudging further north and east in time with the atlantic/ euro trough from the SW gainer continuously the upper hand.

This scenario allows for plume events albeit temporary but very potent with thundery breakdowns and in time some proper atlantic influence before repeat performance. The end of each cycle bringing very warm/hot brief settled weather.

With this in mind, the coming week could well be the best it gets this summer for lengthy settled conditions. 

 

Think I’d agree about the general setup you talk about but reckon there’ll be more in the way of settled weather in between plumes/unsettled spells. Reckon some the plumes could be increasingly potent in terms of level of heat and thundery activity, but probably not as extreme as last summer’s heat.

[Nick2373]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

My expectation for the summer to be an increasingly unsettled yet persistantly warm one gels with today's ECM outlook - though unusually I think it may be a bit over progressive whilst picking up the base summer state that often manifests by the time of the solstice.

In this case, heights nudging further north and east in time with the atlantic/ euro trough from the SW gainer continuously the upper hand.

This scenario allows for plume events albeit temporary but very potent with thundery breakdowns and in time some proper atlantic influence before repeat performance. The end of each cycle bringing very warm/hot brief settled weather.

With this in mind, the coming week could well be the best it gets this summer for lengthy settled conditions. 

 

06z shows what your thoughts are, i agree with these there will be days of something workable with breakdowns in between. the drop in temps and high ppn levels have been showing and trending for a few days from the 19th, the Atlantic as been pretty much dormant of late, I'll be very surprised if the UK Can keep the holding pattern of dry wall to wall sunshine.    

[Man With Beard]

UKMO at D7: Atlantic trough looks like stalling to the SW or sliding underneath to me, warm SElies continue.

I've yet to see anything convincing with regards to a breakdown in the reliable timeframe.

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO at D7: Atlantic trough looks like stalling to the SW or sliding underneath to me, warm SElies continue.

I've yet to see anything convincing with regards to a breakdown in the reliable timeframe.

Yup, and GFS has pushed it back as well

[Captain Shortwave]

Regardless of what happens with the low currently to our south west, another one looks likely to take position in a similar place in week 2.

The GFS does push this through slowly, the GEM tends to phase most of the lower heights together with the pattern merely destabilising over Western Europe before heights likely rebuild.  The UKMO looks the driest with winds veering back to the south east by the end of the working week again with hot air not far away.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO at D7: Atlantic trough looks like stalling to the SW or sliding underneath to me, warm SElies continue.

I've yet to see anything convincing with regards to a breakdown in the reliable timeframe.

I tend to agree, we need to watch the northerly progression of this low as well as easterly progression, it failing to get far enough north may be down to the block to the northeast being underestimated by the models.  

[sheikhy]

just to add the ukmo and gfs extend the dry weather and heat for a bit longer!!ukmo especially looks amazing!!!!!unreal weather we havin at the moment🌡!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM coming out now,,the low out west is further to the south and west..less of an influence although slightly deeper at the same time..lets see what happens here after

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM coming out now,,the low out west is further to the south and west..less of an influence although slightly deeper at the same time..lets see what happens here after

Looks like it’s being ‘absorbed’ by the high pressure at +144h and becoming more cut off/slipping south.

Edited June 11, 2023 by MattStoke

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Looks like it’s being ‘absorbed’ by the high pressure at +144h.

yes matt high pressure may be the dominant theme here on this run..looking like a easterly will set up behind 144..lets see

[sheikhy]

Ecm now extends the heat!!!!!!

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes matt high pressure may be the dominant theme here on this run..looking like a easterly will set up behind 144..lets see

Rightomondo!

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Rightomondo!

should still be quite warm at this stage if not very warm?.lows to the south and west trying to break things down at 192 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
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