Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[kold weather]

47 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Im not convinced by the warmup, it’s transitory at best. Gfs has done extremely well in the past few years picking up the all the hot spells way ahead of the another models, looking at ECM this evening it’s now fallen in line with gfs and has a stinking day 9 and 10 after a brief warmer interlude. 

The GFS is also stull throwing up borderline absurd lows for July (12z has another undergoing explosive cyclongensis) whilst no other model is doing anything near as rapid, indeed some don't have anything.

Knowing the GFS it's either scored a great result against climatology and other models or its a showing itself up again.

If the low is not as strong as planned the whole lot will be further l west and the GFS will rapidly look like the other hotter models.

[clark3r]

My gut feeling is telling me we may see a flip in the next few days to some very hot charts, just a gut feeling! Mid July 

[ANYWEATHER]

The difference between the Ecm two runs today is stark…. Gfs has had no wobbles of late… who do we believe? Answers on a postcard and sent to me please with a £50.00 note inside Thanks…..

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The difference between the Ecm two runs today is stark…. Gfs has had no wobbles of late… who do we believe? Answers on a postcard and sent to me please with a £50.00 note inside Thanks…..

Ecm but no £50 note .

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The difference between the Ecm two runs today is stark…. Gfs has had no wobbles of late… who do we believe? Answers on a postcard and sent to me please with a £50.00 note inside Thanks…..

This is why you use ensembles and not individual runs to determine how likely charts are. Sadly the ecm op wasn’t in keeping with the ens and was more likely than not going to get scaled back.

[Metwatch]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

This is why you use ensembles and not individual runs to determine how likely charts are. Sadly the ecm op wasn’t in keeping with the ens and was more likely than not going to get scaled back.

Exactly. This isn't a half bad ECM ensemble average in fairness at first glance, especially for something more convective.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters nice and simple tonight, T192-T240:

The ECM is in cluster 1, which is the most progressive with the low fully engaging the UK.  Cluster 3 holds the low west and gives the warm solution, cluster 2 is somewhere in between.  Still not able to call it on this timescale, the options pretty much as they have been for the last couple of days, with the various op runs of the models churning out solutions consistent with that uncertainty, really.

[mushymanrob]

Lead balloon time...

But these charts arent what heat seekers want to see.... but theres inconsistency as this 8-14 day chart is a big shift from yesterdays...

[January Snowstorm]

From what I can see there's nothing summery in the charts for the next week to 10 days. Not very bad either just average all around. Just goes to show how special June was, especially for the West/Ireland.

As is always the case whether it be cold or heat enjoy it when it comes along because you are certain it will change for the worse at some point 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

From what I can see there's nothing summery in the charts for the next week to 10 days. Not very bad either just average all around. Just goes to show how special June was, especially for the West/Ireland.

As is always the case whether it be cold or heat enjoy it when it comes along because you are certain it will change for the worse at some point 

Signficantly below average for a few days in the north I see.

[MattStoke]

Jeez. The GFS looks utter crud. GEM and UKMO much better with the trough further west and a proper plume (The ICON too if we want to count that).

Edited July 2, 2023 by MattStoke

[Guest]

GFS not playing ball at all with really only a one day wonder warm up before it trends extremely unsettled again right through the entire run. To be fair GFS is pretty much a carbon copy of its ensemble mean with there being little appetite for any like what the GEM and UKMO are showing. UKMO would undoubtedly lead to something extremely warm. 
 

GFS Ensembles - very little to write home about 

 

GEM Ensembles - it’s a complete scattergun after Friday, not a clue

UKMO - pick of the bunch this morning 

 

[MattStoke]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS not playing ball at all with really only a one day wonder warm up before it trends extremely unsettled again right through the entire run. To be fair GFS is pretty much a carbon copy of its ensemble mean with there being little appetite for any like what the GEM and UKMO are showing. UKMO would undoubtedly lead to something extremely warm. 
 

GFS Ensembles - very little to write home about 

 

GEM Ensembles - it’s a complete scattergun after Friday, not a clue

UKMO - pick of the bunch this morning 

 

ECM somewhere in between. Not as bad as the GFS. Thank goodness.

[Mark wheeler]

Yes please. UKMO 168

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM somewhere in between. Not as bad as the GFS. Thank goodness.

It’s not great though….going off the anoms etc you’d have to say that the ukmo solution still looks far fetched. As much as I’d love for it come off!

[Man With Beard]

Slightly more of a coming together in the D5-D8 period from a wider perspective, but it leaves the UK on the boundary between hot air and less settled conditions, so it's going to be hard to pin down specifics until nearer the time. A trough to the west formed via a trough that came from the east will not resolve easily!

[clark3r]

Ukm gives us another cracking weekend of weather next week! 

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm has now joined forces with the mighty gfs! There’s only one way these Synoptics will go! Good modelling from the gfs this time round…. Ps these charts are at T+168 still a little in FI. 

[bluearmy]

Seems that the pattern wants to stall to drive a plume of some kind but there remains enough oomph to then bring the trough far enough east to make any plume transient at best. The extended period looks ‘changeable’ which offers something for everyone I guess - upper troughy in our locale but not particularly deep 

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ecm has now joined forces with the mighty gfs! There’s only one way these Synoptics will go! Good modelling from the gfs this time round…. Ps these charts are at T+168 still a little in FI. 

 

 

It's on a knife-edge, as others have said. Not sure why you're praising the GFS 7 days before it has verified? 

[MattStoke]

18 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

It's on a knife-edge, as others have said. Not sure why you're praising the GFS 7 days before it has verified? 

ECM isn’t really following the GFS either. It’s in between the GFS and the UKMO (and GEM). The GFS almost always being too quick to show low pressure taking over in the vicinity of the U.K.

[ANYWEATHER]

34 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

It's on a knife-edge, as others have said. Not sure why you're praising the GFS 7 days before it has verified? 

It’s been modelling well , it’s the Ecm which has been woeful.

[damianslaw]

Turn of UKMO to be least progressive today. ECM in the middle and GFS holding its ground with the trough moving east quick.

ECM goes the GFS a day later.

A cool unsettled spell ahead, notably chilly in the north, followed by something drier and warmer, how much so remains to be seen, and for how long not sure, GFS suggest very brief, ECM a 1 or 2 day affair before we return to westerly air.

[Nick2373]

00z continues the theme for a brief you blink and miss it warm up, then temps back down to just below average. This as been showing for days now but is this pattern going to stick around for July is the question.    

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

00z continues the theme for a brief you blink and miss it warm up, then temps back down to just below average. This as been showing for days now but is this pattern going to stick around for July is the question.    

To be fair, GFS has not deviated away the from generally unsettled solution once. Feels like it’s been the best performing model over the last few months.