Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Warmth still hanging on in the south east next Monday on the ECM. The low making very slow progress.

Recipe for fireworks this chart that’s for sure 

[mb018538]

Models really struggling to resolve the low/high and where any plume of heat ends up. ECM is another warm one but I still think this is odds against.

[Cheshire Freeze]

MCS potential alert

[Man With Beard]

So close to the super-plume on the ECM. Can't be discounted.

 

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So close to the super-plume on the ECM. Can't be discounted.

 

I do believe the low will be further west. Most of the 12z suite have already done so compared to the earlier runs.

So yes, no only can’t it be discounted, I’d say it’s becoming a serious possibility.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So close to the super-plume on the ECM. Can't be discounted.

 

Indeed, but how close is still up in the air, and it's far too early for predicting thunderstorms in any case.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Indeed, but how close is still up in the air, and it's far too early for predicting thunderstorms in any case.

If it's not too early to predict the possibility of heat then how can it be too early to predict the possibility of storms?

Note, at this point we use the terms 'possibility' and 'potential' and we look at broader patterns not specifics.

Edited July 2, 2023 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

Just now, CreweCold said:

If it's not too early to predict the possibility of heat then how can it be too early to predict the possibility of storms?

Because MSCs, when/if/where they occur, are far harder to predict than are a few warm/hot days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

Because MSCs, when/if/where they occur, are far harder to predict than are a few warm/hot days.

But we're not predicting the MCS as such, more the risk of one occurring...which with heat and humidity is a risk that is increased.

It's the broader set up that's important at this range, not specifics.

Edited July 2, 2023 by CreweCold

[JayAlmeida]

Massive heel turn from the GEM between the 00z and 12z. Very romantic with the heart shaped low aswell.

[MattStoke]

Just now, JayAlmeida said:

Massive heel turn from the GEM between the 00z and 12z. Very romantic with the heart shaped low aswell.

From hero to zero. That should be a broken heart.

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Because MSCs, when/if/where they occur, are far harder to predict than are a few warm/hot days.

Excuse my ignorance,  but what are MSCs? Some kind of supercell thunderstorms?

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Massive heel turn from the GEM between the 00z and 12z. Very romantic with the heart shaped low aswell.

Nae bother: by this time tomorrow, they'll be telling us it's going to snow! 

[Derecho]

26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So close to the super-plume on the ECM. Can't be discounted.

 

Very close indeed, Monday looks very thundery on that chart. A developing low helps push the hot air east by Tuesday.... however a scenario where the low remains stuck at west with heat persisting is a real possibility albeit unlikely.

Another warm and thundery weekend is looking possible now though!

If we were to get serious heat, the low to our west would need to develop further south.

Alternatively the cool air could push in too early, all options are on the table.

Though a 1/2 day plume looks like a sensible bet at this stage, perhaps 3 days in the easternmost areas of the UK. 

[JayAlmeida]

Its interesting to see how all the other models have caved in and showed at least one similar run to the GFS now. The GEM 12z is virtually plume-less.

[Mark wheeler]

37 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Warmth still hanging on in the south east next Monday on the ECM. The low making very slow progress.

Just feel this is going to nudge westwards over the coming days . 
 

Navgem keeps the low spinning out towards the west. Yeah I know , its the navgem .

[sunnijim]

50 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Excuse my ignorance,  but what are MSCs? Some kind of supercell thunderstorms?

A mesoscale convective system.

I ndividual Thunderstorms joining into one large area of  thundery activity.

[summer blizzard]

All models now basically agree that Thursdays will see showers but drying out, Friday will be dry and warm, Saturday (though Euro delays until Sunday) will see a front moving through. 

In the long run for the following week, all cyclonic.

[WeatherArc]

Decent agreement from Euro and GFS tonight, we just need that low pulled a little further west.

Look at those uppers over Spain and North Africa, if only we could get the low to sink a little bit southwards and stay in place for a few days, would be a proper heat pump. 

Regardless, I'll take anything over the cloudy and cool conditions we've had the past few days 

[ANYWEATHER]

Cool cloudy windy rain , looks like summing up the weather in the ten days or so…… High Summer forget it

[Scuba steve]

7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cool cloudy windy rain , looks like summing up the weather in the ten days or so…… High Summer forget it

It’s not quite the green blob of death ,I’ll hold on to a slightly more positive view of the models ,lol

[Downpour]

13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cool cloudy windy rain , looks like summing up the weather in the ten days or so…… High Summer forget it

Is it going to be that cool, in the reliable? Raw output suggests warm temperatures next weekend, for example. Probably with a fair bit of sunshine, too.

[Earthshine]

Suspect it will all correct westward...

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cool cloudy windy rain , looks like summing up the weather in the ten days or so…… High Summer forget it

It's amazing how you can sum up the varied UK climate in just four words ... and for the next ten days, too!

Absolute tosh, again

[Derecho]

36 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cool cloudy windy rain , looks like summing up the weather in the ten days or so…… High Summer forget it

Have you even bothered to look at the model output?